Australian Open Round 4 Plays

Toronto_Mike

Toronto_Mike

Scent of a Woman
Overall:
Round 1: 4-9-1 -$753
Round 2: 5-2-0 +$485.80
Round 3: 8-2-0 +$477
Overall: 19-13-1 +$209.80

Here we go, last 16. We will see some overreactions to some books as well.

Na Li vs Martina Hingis
Martina Hingis -3 @ 1.80 $250 to win $200
Ok i had to ask my bud Jon about this one to reconfirm. Was wondering why Hingis was only 3 but i guess the books are overreacting to Li's defeat of Safina. Well Safina looked uninterested after the 1st set loss. Hingis on the other hand is on fire. The Swiss Miss is playing as if she's the #1 player on tour. With Mauresmo out, Hingis knows that her quest for the title is blocked by Sharapova and Clijsters. But today we see her just as a -3 favorite. I am going to take advantage of this. I can see Hingis winning in 2 and all she needs to do is hopefully win at least 1 set without going to a tiebreak. Li is having a torrid run to the last 16, but she hasn't played a much more solid all around player like Hingis. Her questionable serve will probably be her downfall today as Hingis should take care of them with her return game.
 
Here's what I'm thinking so far

Gonzo +180
Haas -120
Murray +230
Davy -160
 
Parlay:
Martina Hingis ML
Tommy Haas ML
$100 to win $158

I was considering Nalbandian, but i really can't seem to figure out whether he was lucky or whether or not he was just messing about. The guy is a marathon man but from what i heard, he's gotten fatter and less fit. Tommy Haas on the other hand is on the rebound. The guy is gaining much more momentum the deeper he goes so i cannot go against the German at this spot. I think we can see a good 4 or 5 setter here but if Nalbandian gives up 2 sets early like he did to Janko and Sebastien Haas will finish the job.
 
Im a big berdych fan.. havent gotten to watch must of the tourney since it comes on so late. Nice rebound for ya after the tough start.. Would love to see that clown nadal lose
 
adding:

James Blake vs Fernando Gonzalez
Over 41.5 games @ 1.85 $120 to win $100
Pending on the outcome of Haas/Nalbandian I may increase my stakes on this. This will be Blake's toughest test so far this tourney. Blake is currently one of the hottest players on the ATP Tour riding his recent Sydney victory. Gonzo on the other hand just seems to always be a pest for any top 10 player. He is a very consistant performer on his service game and doesn't double fault as much. Blake played 3 tough sets against Ginepri. Blake is favored quite heavily but i think this game is a lot closer then what the odds suggest. Both these guys are powerful baseliners so we could see extended rallies. Gonzo has played 4 sets or more in all his matches till this point. I expect the same tonite.
 
good luck Run n'gun. I'm stayin away from Davydenko/Berdych. Could go either way.

i'm increasing my stakes in the Blake/Gonzo match
Over 41.5 $250 to win $212.50
 
that blake/Gonzo prop is looking iffy.

good hit with Haas though:beer:
 
Blake/Gonzo Over 41.5 was a loss. Blake was pathetic in the 2nd idiot had it going to win the set 6-2 and ended up losing it altogether 4-6.
 
Mardy Fish vs Andy Roddick
Mardy Fish +5.5 $120 to win $100
Andy Roddick leads the h2h series 4-2 but those wins didn't come easy. In 3 of those 4 victories, Roddick to go to a tiebreak. With the way Fish has been playing either he can have a let down or the momentum continues. Roddick on the other hand has had to battle through his way to the last 16. He has been arguing a lot of calls and that is either getting the better of him or it just psyches him up. Either way these are both hard hitting players who hit with authority. Fish has nothing to lose while Roddick has all to play for. If Nadal wins against Murray that means it is left to Roddick and Federer to join them in the last 8. At this line i'd have to hope that Fish manages to get a set off Roddick which is definitely possible. Either day or this becomes a very good serving battle with tiebreakers deciding the set winner. I think Roddick is an overrated sap of shit who is often too erratic when he is a heavy favorite. Fish should give him the run around. These guys are afterall high school buddies so they know each other's style very well.
 
as for the Robredo/Federer matchup. I'm staying well away from it. Tommy has just been on fine form but he plays a guy who owns him. Federer is 7-1 against Tommy and has even won encounters on Clay. Infact he destroys Tommy on clay. As much as I would enjoy watching Robredo win, the possibility of that happen is very minimal.
 
Nicole Vaidisova vs Lucie Safarova
Lucie Safarova +4.5 $250 to win $212.50
3 Sets to be played $50 to win $67.50
This should be a great game. Both girls are from the Czech Republic and both came up the ranks in a similar time but Vaidisova has just shot up the charts. They have played 3 times in the past, 2 in 2006 where they both finished in 3 sets. Safarova had that inspirational round against Mauresmo and looks to continue that run. We could see a 6-1 or 6-2 type of set but that usually just means the game could be closer. I've noticed how a lot of 3 setters just has that one set where a player collapses. Hopefully Safarova can hold her ground.
 
Ok need Fish to salvage something here. Vaidisova showed some cracks and got away on her aces.
With Williams winning a close one i am going to be interested to see the lines. Pending on how the prices are, i am right now leaning on Serena.
 
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