Australian Open 2014 Edition

Toronto_Mike

Toronto_Mike

Scent of a Woman
Unit Range 1-5

First Round

WTA:
Venus Williams -2 @ 1.92 (1u)
Casey Dellacqua ML @ 2.33 (1u)
Na Li -6 @ 1.81 (2u)
Daniela Hantuchova ML @ 2.27 (1u)
Kirsten Flipkens -3.5 @ 1.94 (3u)
Kirsten Flipkens -1.5 sets @ 2.33 (1u)
Petra Kvitova -6.5 @ 1.87 (3u)
Victoria Azarenka -8 @ 1.85 (2u)
Simona Halep -6 @ 1.92 (2u)
Lourdes Dominguez-Lino +7.5 @ 2.13 (1u)
Barb Zahlavova-Strycova -4 @ 1.90 (3u)
Barb Zahlavova-Strycova -1.5 Sets @ 2.04 (1u)
Garbine Muguruza Blanco ML @ 1.94 (1u)
Stefanie Vogele -3.5 @ 2.02 (1u)

ATP:
Stan Wawrinka -8.5 @ 2.00 (1u) PUSH
Tomas Berdych -10 @ 2.01 (1u)
Ivo Karlovic/Ivan Dodig o44.5 @ 2.01 (2u)
Haas/Garcia-Lopez o38 @ 1.94 (1u) RETIRED
Yen-Hsun Lu -6 @ 1.96 (2u)

Will add accordingly
 
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Flipkins crushed, good job:shake:

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edit: got Gajdosova +500 at 3-0 up in the 2nd. Fingers crossed at 1-set all headed into the 3rd.
 
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BC,
Wanted your thoughts on Stosur and Ivanobitch....I know we love to fade these suckers but man Ana is on a roll and Sam tough to fade but Klara seems to give her a hard time!
 
Yah Slap real joke there, Errani gone too haha.

Day 2 Round 1

WTA:
Victoria Azarenka -8 @ 1.85 (2u)
Simona Halep -6 @ 1.92 (2u)
Lourdes Dominguez-Lino +7.5 @ 2.13 (1u)
Barb Zahlavova-Strycova -4 @ 1.90 (3u)
Barb Zahlavova-Strycova -1.5 Sets @ 2.04 (1u)
Garbine Muguruza Blanco ML @ 1.94 (1u)
Stefanie Vogele -3.5 @ 2.02 (1u)

ATP:
Yen-Hsun Lu -6 @ 1.96 (2u)

Will add more, lurking the Sharapova match
 
Good start in First Round lets continue

Round 2

WTA:
Mona Barthel -3 @ 2.03 (2u) Push
Daniela Hantuchova -3 @ 1.96 (2u)
Na Li -7 @ 1.94 (3u) PUSH fucking bitch
 
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Day 2 Round 2:

WTA
Christina McHale +4.5 @ 1.97 (2u)
Carla Suarez Navarro -1.5 Sets @ 1.83 (2u)
Magdalena Rybarikova -2.5 @ 1.89 (2u)
Magdalena Rybarikova -1.5 Sets @ 2.43 (1u)
Jelena Jankovic -6.5 @ 1.84 (4u)

ATP:
Seppi/Young o39 @ 1.92 (1u)
Cilic/Simon o41.5 @ 1.91 (1u)
Milos Raonic -2.5 Sets @ 2.00 (3u)
Yen hsun Lu ML @ 2.80 (1u)
Rafael Nadal -10 @ 2.10 (2u)
 
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Round 3

WTA:
Bouchard/Davies o20 @ 1.91 (2u)
Lucie Safarova +5 @ 2.16 (3u)
Ingame Safarova/Na Li o23.5 @ 1.94 (5u)

ATP:
Anderson/Roger-Vasselin o40.5 @ 1.91 (2u)
Mayer/Janowicz o40.5 @ 1.93 (5u)
Ferrer/Chardy o40.5 @ 1.96 (2u)

will add accordingly
 
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Love the Anderson over, same with Ferrer...expect Chardy to give Ferrer a fight. Think I am going to add him too.

I think Mayer can make quick work on Jerzy but we will see! BOL today bud
 
Hantuchova to win a set against Serena is 10/1? 10 to 1?

GTFOOH...I hit that for 25 quickly when I saw it come up
 
man you were right Mayer is just toying with Jerzy what a joke I also added 3 more units to that over too, lost blah.
Hantuchova had opportunities but failed unreal also had o18 when it was 3-2 Serena thought for sure at 3-3 I had it but of course not!

adding:
Lucie Safarova +5 @ 2.16 (3u)
She should keep this one close I actually want this to go 6-4 6-4 rather than have a 3rd set where Na could potentially just destroy her 6-1
 
Jankovic -6 @ 1.87 (5u)
This is a big one, Jankovic is probably the only player outside the top 4 that I think has a shot to beat Serena. A very interesting thing to note is that Nara will be the 3rd consecutive Japanese player Jankovic will play in this tourney, she brushed aside Morita and Doi and there is no reason why she will overpower Nara here. Again it's all about mental focus here so Nara's only chance is to frustrated Jankovic and have her generate unforced errors. This is an earlier match so the heat won't be as bad as in the later matches.

Cibulkova -3.5 @ 1.90 (2u)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +4.5 @ 2.09 (2u)
Muguruza/Wozniacki o22 @ 1.94 (3u)
 
add:

Roger Federer -9 @ 1.98 (4u)
Fed has always played at Rod Laver and this year was first time he didn't play on the court in the first 2 rounds now he's back on with a full house, playable conditions.
I expect him to win big.
 
Raonic/Dimitrov o43 @ 1.94 (3u)
Raonic has a terrible return game, both can serve big it's whoever has the most effective 2nd serve which I give the tip to Raonic but I can see either take at least one set each. you'll see a tie breaker too
 
need to clean up this thread a bit.

Round 16

WTA:
Pennetta ML @ 2.83 (2u)
Na Li/Makarova o21.5 @ 1.91 (3u)
Casey Dell'Acqua ML @ 3.12 (1u)<-----Eugenie is never going to suck my cock
Sloane Stephens +5.5 @ 1.90 (2u)
Sloane Stephens ML @ 6.16 (1u)

ATP:
Tomas Berdych -6.5 @ 1.99 (4u)
Mayer/Ferrer o38.5 (3u)
Florian Mayer ML @ 4.22 (1u)
Wawa/Robredo o39.5 @ 1.92 (5u)
Tsonga/Federer o42 @ 1.90 (5u)

I think you will see some epic matches this round especially along the mens side. Conditions are favourable it seems a lot of these players have played 5 setters before and are built to last the length, if you get pasted this round you have no business being here.
 
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adding:
Cibulkova +4 @ 1.90 (2u)
Radwanska/Muguruza o21 @ 1.95 (2u)
Dimitrov/Bautista o39.5 @ 1.90 (4u)
Nadal/Nishikori u31 @ 1.87 (3u)
 
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absolutely terrible round for me…really thought we would see some great matches that could go the length but instead we see pretty much one sided affairs.
on the women's side it's nice to see some shocks with Serena and Maria going out.
Men's side it's the same ole routine really nothing new, this is Djokovic's tournament. Really don't think Nadal can take him here, I was a sucker into believe both Fed and Murray would fade but they seem to do what they need to progress.
But the biggest upset of all has to be the Bryan brothers losing!!!
 
Quarter Finals

WTA:
Eugenie Bouchard +4 @ 1.90 (2u)
Eugenie Bouchard ML @ 3.22 (1u)
Simona Halep -2.5 @ 1.90 (5u)
Viktoria Azarenka -5.5 @ 2.04 (5u)

Bouchard has nothing to lose here, Ivanovic with the win over Serena is expected to make finals now. However, Ivanovic also historically can crumble when it matters most. I don't think she will cake walk Bouchard, as both have great games it always comes down to the mental capacity. Will Bouchard's inexperience be her downfall or will it help her since she has no pressure. Either way, I really don't see Ivanovic pasting Bouchard and I think the Canadian has enough tools to keep this close.
Halep is on fire, simple as that, intact you want oppositions to win a set against her so she can just paste you the next set. Cibulkova had a great win over Sharapova however there were MANY times where she failed to convert and MANY times where Sharapova gave the games to Dominika. I'm going to back the player that has earned her way and destroyed everyone she's faced so far.
Azarenka knows a great opportunity lies ahead to defend her crown with Serena out. She faces a familiar foe in Aggy who plays a style that is best suited for an ass kicking by Vika. Her defence is great but not against Serena or Vika. She will be forced to attack which is not her game as she lacks the power, the pace will be controlled by Vika so I expect to see a very quick match her.

ATP:
David Ferrer ML @ 2.40 (3u)
Dimitrov/Nadal o34.5 @ 1.93 (3u)
Dimitrov +6.5 @ 2.19 (1u)
Wawrinka/Djokovic o36.5 @ 1.96 (5u)

The ATP side is going to get really tricky now, I can see Wawrinka pushing Novak but in the end this is the Jokers court and you play by his rules. If it was US Open under the lights I will definitely play Stan handicap. He has the game to push Joker but this is going to come down to whom can convert on their oppositions mistakes.

Ferrer gets no love…he is one pesky opponent and to have him as an underdog against someone that is not named Djokovic or Nadal is really a slap into the face. Berdych is not really someone I see winning a GS, he's always there because he generally ends up having easier passage but I don't like to back him if the opponent is someone that can push him to 5 sets. Ferrer will probably play the defensive style which is fine as he is probably one of the best condition players on tour so 5 sets to him is like 3. Berdych will win if he increases the pace, the longer his rallies go the more likely he will succumb to unforced errors.

Really like Dimitrov's game, give him a few more years and he will be top 5 player. He just needs to play Nadal/Fed/Joker/Murray more often. I don't expect him to win this game but I do feel he can pressure Nadal into hurried shots. Dimitrov's footwork is pretty good for a big guy and he has the weapons to finish a shot quick, if he is forced into a rally with Nadal he will be in a lot of trouble. These guys have played 3 times and Nadal has won all 3 but marginally. 2-1 games, I feel Dimitrov can take one set off Nadal just waiting on a line to add.
 
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hmmm some how ended up better on the mens side then women's. Ok nearly at the end of our journey

Semi Finals

WTA:
Eugenie Bouchard +5 @ 1.90 (3u)
Eugenie Bouchard ML @ 4.75 (1u)
Aggie Radwanska -3 @ 1.91 (3u)
Cibulkova/Radwanska u22 @ 1.90 (2u)

Exciting times ahead for Bouchard, becoming the first Canadian to reach an Australian Open Semi's yet last year she didn't even make the main draw. Her game has flourished rapidly since she was the top female Junior last year. Her performance vs Ivanovic was gutsy and at times it looked like she had lost the match, however she kept her composure and made Ivanovic move around the court all day. Let it be known she is only 19 and still needs a lot more experience under her belt but lets not forget that a lot of successful female players usually break into the WTA world around 16-17. Bouchard has been trained to win at a young age so being in a Semi's is not a big deal, it's just this is a Grand Slam Semi so will she crumble to nerves? Li Na is a proven veteran, there were times earlier this tournament that perhaps she would get knocked out, but she found her way around and fought back against Safarova and since then has looked in command. She has one of the best forehands on tour, she also loves playing at the Australian Open where she has been consistently around for the second week of the tournament. Her experience will be vital here as she's playing against a newbie, she is the heavy favourite and rightfully so. With all said and done, the price for Bouchard as an underdog is too hard to pass up. She already had to deal with pressure playing against a crowd fav in Dell'Acqua and then another experienced player who is also a crowd favourite in Ivanovic. If she can make Li Na move around like she's done against other players she will have quite a bit of success. No pressure for her to deliver she's already accomplished quite a bit early in her career and this is another stepping stone. I think both players have the ability to break each others serve so I do believe you won't see a complete blow out in one set.

Other semi final pits two familiar foes, Radwanska has a 6-1 h2h meet with Cibulkova, faced each other 3 times last year, Aggie taking 2-1 lead. I've always had a soft spot for Radwanska…she's sort of the David Ferrer of WTA, she competes and is a grinder, not the biggest gal on tour but she defends very well. Her win vs Azarenka has got to be one of her finest tennis matches, to win the first 6-1 was impressive but to win the 3rd 6-0 after perhaps a shift of momentum speaks volumes. What I like about this matchup is Radwanska's ability to absorb power she did that very well vs Azarenka and should be able to put Cibulkova at her place. Now I have a feeling someone is going to win straight sets so thus I will take the u22 as well, the 6-1 or 6-0 set is right there for the taking, I really don't see a 7-6 set here, finish the game quick and move on.

ATP:
Nadal/Federer o42.5 @ 1.92 (5u)
Stan Wawrinka ML @ 1.76 (5u)
 
Li Na -4 @ 1.96 (5u)
Li Na -1.5 Sets @ 2.07 (5u)
Under 21.5 @ 1.98 (3u)

Be back with thoughts
 
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An unlikely women's finals as we see Li Na vs Dominika Cibulkova, neither player had to face the top 2 women as they allowed others to deal with them. Li Na has been here before, in 2011 and 2013 both were losses. This will be Cibulkova's first GS finals, playing her way through an impressive field where she defeated, Sharapova, Halep and Radwanska. Cibulkova is one of the smallest players on tour at 5'3 but she was not over matched by some of the harder hitters like Sharapova and Halep, she also destroyed a very technically sound player in Radwanska.

Li Na's passage changed after the 2nd set vs Safarova, she even admitted that she was on the verge of just quitting, seemed disinterested but then she just zoned in and since then has drubbed her opposition to get to this position. She is more relaxed, she has a reliable 2nd serve which has been crucial in this tournament. What I find to be the most important factor is Cibulkova's 2nd serve. There isn't a lot of pace to it it's 20km slower than her average 1st serve speed and this is something that does not bode well against a great forehand. I don't expect Cibulkova to approach the net as much as she did vs Radwanska, Li Na will be the aggressor here and you'll see a much more defensive approach from Cibulkova.
The heat has not been an issue for these two, they've played extended matches and quick ones.
Experience will be very important, Cibulkova does play a very face paced game which is perfectly fine with Li Na as she is one of the most athletic players on tour, she is more comfortable on the baseline but has changed up her play to becoming more fluid overall.

My wagers are based on the pace of play these two conduct, as mentioned this will go by very quickly. Both will have mental jitters and both will have opportunities to strike, for me Na gets the nod because of experience and her mental blockage during her tournament, she's been able to shrug that off which in the past she would of just flustered and said forget it. She is 31 and time is of the essence, both will be hungry for this but I believe Cibulkova's style of play is just the type for Li Na to expose and take advantage of.
 
Cleaned house with Li Na, deserved Champion, 3rd time is a charm for her.

For the mens my heart says Stan should win but I do believe Nadal will get the result, however I will not pay that price. Nadal is 12-0 vs Stan and has won all the sets they've played, however Stan is getting closer and closer to beating Nadal as oppose to fading away.
One also has to note as great as Nadal is, he has only won 3 GS on the hard courts and has only won the Aussie Open once in 2009 so now he faces a much and improved Wawa who has excelled dramatically and this is his favourite surface.
If you note in a lot of the matches these two have played, the sets have not been one sided, the key note is what surface has Nadal dominated Stan on? Clay, during the Hardcourt play Stan has always had a good chance of taking something from Nadal and I expect him to play his part here.
I don't believe the price given is based strictly on h2h as oppose to what is happening right now, however I do still believe that Nadal will take the title. He comes up big when it seems he's playing mediocre tennis, this is a GS and in the last few years it's been Djokovic and Murray who have prevented him from cleaning house.
Nevertheless this is going to be a good match, it's a lot easier for Stan to win a set off Nadal as oppose to Nadal winning 3-0.
Thus making these wagers.

Stan Wawrinka +6 @ 1.90 (2u)
Stan Wawrinka +2.5 Sets @ 1.75 (5u)
Nadal/Wawa o38 @ 1.91 (5u)
 
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