Austin Peay vs Central Arkansas: College Football Best Bet
Austin Peay vs Central Arkansas
Friday, August 28, 2020 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama
Beware Of The Hype
There seems to be a lot of love for the „over.“ As of Friday morning, the betting total for this game has eclipsed 45 in top sportsbooks.
A deeper dive reveals that an „over“ play relies on a skewed and overly optimistic viewpoint of both offenses.
Rust?
One source of hype for Austin Peay is quarterback Jeremiah Oatsvall. It is true that Oatsvall has produced some nice numbers and earned multiple accolades in his career.
The problem is that those numbers and accolades did not come after 2018.
In all of 2019, Oatsvall played one complete game, which was the regular season opener. In the second game of the Governors’ season, he was injured on the ninth play from scrimmage and he did not return for the entire rest of the season.
So, it’s one thing to expect an offense to rediscover instant chemistry in a 2020 season opener. You especially have to consider that teams were limited in their ability to practice due to restrictions imposed in response to the Coronavirus.
But it’s another thing to expect Oatsvall to demonstrate good form given the fact that he hasn’t competed since almost two years ago.
Missing Running Back
It would be really nice for Oatsvall if Kentel Williams were still playing. A running back can be a rusty quarterback’s best friend by helping him to settle into the game.
A good running back will create manageable first-down conversion opportunities and absorb attention from the defense so that his quarterback has an easier time to drive his offense down the field.
However, Williams was a senior last year. His quality will be missed. He was a first-teamer in his conference (the OVC) both last year and in 2018. So he was a staple source of offense for Austin Peay.
With Williams gone, two different freshmen look to take his place and replace his productivity. Whoever will try to replace Williams will be unproven and has shoes to fill that will be too large.
Match-Up Obstacle For Oatsvall
This lack of a quality, proven running back is critical for today’s match-up because Central Arkansas favors a 4-2–5 scheme.
With only two linebackers and five defensive backs, Central Arkansas is geared to stop an opposing pass offense.
So, in addition to a unique potential for rust and a lack of a supportive running back, Oatsvall faces an additional obstacle in Central Arkansas’ conventional defensive scheme.
Hype For Central Arkansas’ Offense
Central Arkansas quarterback Breylin Smith seems to have garnered impressive passing numbers last year.
But it’s rather easy for a quarterback to produce high yardage and touchdown totals when he’s the focal point of his offense to the degree that Smith was.
In rushing, last year, Central Arkansas ranked in the bottom 10 in the FCS. They were one of 11 teams to average fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and ranked seventh-to-last in accruing 88.8 per game.
So, hyping up Central Arkansas’ offense relies upon a very misleading focus on its pass attack.
Both Teams Have Stars In The Secondary
Like Central Arkansas, Austin Peay will enjoy facing a team that is pass-first. Austin Peay, also, relies on a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, which means that five Governor defensive backs will be roaming the field to ensure narrow passing lanes.
For Austin Peay, Kordell Jackson is an absolute star in the secondary. Last year, he earned NCAA Consensus All-American honors. You can almost always find him around the ball. Last year, he amassed seven interceptions.
Central Arkansas’ secondary has a star of its own in Robert Rochell. Rochell was an NCAA First-Team All-American. An obvious NFL Draft candidate like Jackson, he amassed five interceptions and 18 pass deflections in 2019.
The Verdict
It seems unreasonable to expect instant offensive chemistry especially from Austin Peay’s pass attack.
While Central Arkansas’ quarterback may have a rust advantage over his counterpart, he’ll have to contend with Austin Peay’s 4-2-5 defense without support from a running game.
Austin Peay’s offense has the same problem, in fact, with Kentel Williams gone.
Led by Jackson of Austin Peay and Rochell of Central Arkansas, both secondaries will take this game over and limit both offenses, both of which are forced to overcommit to their passing game.
Best Bet: Under 45 (-105) with BetOnline
Austin Peay vs Central Arkansas
Friday, August 28, 2020 at 9 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama
Beware Of The Hype
There seems to be a lot of love for the „over.“ As of Friday morning, the betting total for this game has eclipsed 45 in top sportsbooks.
A deeper dive reveals that an „over“ play relies on a skewed and overly optimistic viewpoint of both offenses.
Rust?
One source of hype for Austin Peay is quarterback Jeremiah Oatsvall. It is true that Oatsvall has produced some nice numbers and earned multiple accolades in his career.
The problem is that those numbers and accolades did not come after 2018.
In all of 2019, Oatsvall played one complete game, which was the regular season opener. In the second game of the Governors’ season, he was injured on the ninth play from scrimmage and he did not return for the entire rest of the season.
So, it’s one thing to expect an offense to rediscover instant chemistry in a 2020 season opener. You especially have to consider that teams were limited in their ability to practice due to restrictions imposed in response to the Coronavirus.
But it’s another thing to expect Oatsvall to demonstrate good form given the fact that he hasn’t competed since almost two years ago.
Missing Running Back
It would be really nice for Oatsvall if Kentel Williams were still playing. A running back can be a rusty quarterback’s best friend by helping him to settle into the game.
A good running back will create manageable first-down conversion opportunities and absorb attention from the defense so that his quarterback has an easier time to drive his offense down the field.
However, Williams was a senior last year. His quality will be missed. He was a first-teamer in his conference (the OVC) both last year and in 2018. So he was a staple source of offense for Austin Peay.
With Williams gone, two different freshmen look to take his place and replace his productivity. Whoever will try to replace Williams will be unproven and has shoes to fill that will be too large.
Match-Up Obstacle For Oatsvall
This lack of a quality, proven running back is critical for today’s match-up because Central Arkansas favors a 4-2–5 scheme.
With only two linebackers and five defensive backs, Central Arkansas is geared to stop an opposing pass offense.
So, in addition to a unique potential for rust and a lack of a supportive running back, Oatsvall faces an additional obstacle in Central Arkansas’ conventional defensive scheme.
Hype For Central Arkansas’ Offense
Central Arkansas quarterback Breylin Smith seems to have garnered impressive passing numbers last year.
But it’s rather easy for a quarterback to produce high yardage and touchdown totals when he’s the focal point of his offense to the degree that Smith was.
In rushing, last year, Central Arkansas ranked in the bottom 10 in the FCS. They were one of 11 teams to average fewer than 100 rushing yards per game and ranked seventh-to-last in accruing 88.8 per game.
So, hyping up Central Arkansas’ offense relies upon a very misleading focus on its pass attack.
Both Teams Have Stars In The Secondary
Like Central Arkansas, Austin Peay will enjoy facing a team that is pass-first. Austin Peay, also, relies on a 4-2-5 defensive scheme, which means that five Governor defensive backs will be roaming the field to ensure narrow passing lanes.
For Austin Peay, Kordell Jackson is an absolute star in the secondary. Last year, he earned NCAA Consensus All-American honors. You can almost always find him around the ball. Last year, he amassed seven interceptions.
Central Arkansas’ secondary has a star of its own in Robert Rochell. Rochell was an NCAA First-Team All-American. An obvious NFL Draft candidate like Jackson, he amassed five interceptions and 18 pass deflections in 2019.
The Verdict
It seems unreasonable to expect instant offensive chemistry especially from Austin Peay’s pass attack.
While Central Arkansas’ quarterback may have a rust advantage over his counterpart, he’ll have to contend with Austin Peay’s 4-2-5 defense without support from a running game.
Austin Peay’s offense has the same problem, in fact, with Kentel Williams gone.
Led by Jackson of Austin Peay and Rochell of Central Arkansas, both secondaries will take this game over and limit both offenses, both of which are forced to overcommit to their passing game.
Best Bet: Under 45 (-105) with BetOnline
