Aussie open play

[Wikeman]

I like Pavlyuchenkova to win against Kuznetsova today at +125.

Ranking-wise Kuznetsova is the superior player, but AO is not a tournament where she has done well in the past years.
Also she lost to Pavlyuchenkova just a week ago in straight sets, and yesterday she needed three long sets to overcome Jankovic. Doesn't look like her form is peaking right now.

Pavlyuchenkova isn't a very consistent player, she hits with a lot of power, which is great as long as she hits within the lines and over the net, but often she doesn't. Normally she would be around +180 to beat a player like Kuznetsova, and the fact that the price is less generous shows that the bookies like her chances to win this time.

 

[P-Unit]

nice call

 

[Wikeman]

Thanks P-Unit. It was a decisive win for Pavlyuchenkova.

It's a bit of homework to cap tennis well, there are many factors, the women fluctuate a lot, and in three set games few points decide the game too. Tricky business.

I like when I can contribute, we can always use more write-ups on CTG, they seem few and far between.

This year's AO is missing a lot of the women's elite, Azarenka, Kvitova, Sharapova sidelined, and now Halep, Wozniacki and Kuznetsova are already out.
Last year Kerber won, but she's been lacklustre to start the year, but probably she will kick into gear today against Coco Vanderweghe. I've not decided whether to put money on it yet.

 

[Wikeman]

OK, putting down money on Kerber at -285.

Vanderweghe does not hit enough winners to decide the game herself, she needs the opponent to give her cheap points like she got in her win against Bouchard when she was on the verge of losing down a break in third.

Kerber played nicely against Kristyna Pliskova, who's definitely a player on the rise. I think she will be OK.

 

[Wikeman]

Kerber lost in straight sets 2-6 3-6. Thus World's No. 1 ranked and reigning AO champion lost to World's no 35.

I need to trust stats even less than I already do.

 

[cubsker]

few things in sports are goofier than non serena women's tennis players

 

[nbafan88]

few things in sports are goofier than non serena women's tennis players

Truer words have never been spoken.

 

[Wikeman]

I am back for more punishment I guess.

In today's first match Pavlyuchenkova plays Venus Williams. Venus owns a 3-2 H2H record, surprisingly she won the last two, the latest in 2014, whereas her two losses were back in 2009 when she was a much stronger player.
Venus opened a favourite but odds on Pavly has dropped. Venus hasn't really beaten anyone good lately, both players are powerful strikers but Pavly is 10 years younger, and probably the best player when she's in the zone. Let's hope she is.
The play: Pavlyuchenkova -110

In the second match Vanderweghe will try to continue her rare win streak against Muguruza. She was 10-13 on hard last year, and seems to crash out every time she's in a quarterfinal (f.y.i. this is a quarterfinal). On the other hand she has played impressively the last two rounds, and Muguruza was only 15-12 on hard herself last year. Mugu is also a grinder, and they have fared very poorly in the tournament so far against powerful players. The H2H is 2-1 in Vanderweghe's favour, the wins were on grass whereas the most recent loss was on hard. It's a risky proposion that Vanderweghe can stay hot, but anyway...
The play: Vanderweghe +160

Good luck
:cheers3: