Aug-Sept 2021

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
New season!

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  • 5/4.55 Illinois +7 -110
  • 5/4.76 Hawaii +17½ -105


Hawaii +17½
  • Chip Kelly is 0-6 in non conference games at UCLA, including 4 losses to G5 opponents.
  • HI returns 11 defensive starters from a unit that overperformed for their talent level last year
  • HI finished last season with win against a solid Nevada team, a close loss to a good SJSU team, a win against UNLV, and a bowl win against Houston.
  • 2nd season for QB and head coach together should equal improved offense.

Illinois +7
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  • Illinois returns experienced and proven QB, O-line and RB
  • Questions remain at WR as the top guys from last year are gone, but they do return solid tight ends who are capable of big plays
  • Assuming these experienced Ilini RBs to get chunk plays behind their beefy o-line, something they did many times last season vs NEB
  • Yes, NEB QB Martinez has put up 800 yards vs IL in 2 starts against them, which is cause for concern. However he is playing behind a very young Oline today that has never seen game action, (3 Fres + RS soph and junior) This inexperience on the line will limit what Martinez can do through the air and especially on the ground, where he’s scored the majority of his points against Illinois.
  • Nebraska also starts true freshman at RB, and he likely has some jitters behind inexperienced o-line
  • Illinois returns many starters on D, particularly in the secondary and I doubt they have any problem minimizing Martinez.
Oh yea, this game is also being played in front of the first college crowd we’ve seen since the pandemic began. I expect Illinois fans to propel their team.

Considering some Illinois ML as well. Illinois is more experienced on all sides of the ball, and experience goes a long way in college ball...but so far I'm happy with the +7
 
LOL, just seen this after I have already made my plays...best of luck to the "Godfather" whoever the fuck he is. :rofl:

godfatherlocks august 28th picks
(entire day. No email at 5:30pm)

ncaa football & mlb
2 massive 5000 unit picks (ncaaf)
3 top rated 2000 unit picks (mlb)


*** massive 5000 unit picks ***


#1 - illinois fighting illini +7 (ncaaf)

#2 - hawaii rainbow warriors +17.5 (ncaaf)




*** top rated 2000 unit picks ***


#1 - cleveland indians +130 (mlb)

#2 - oakland athletics -110 (mlb)

#3 - san diego padres -125 (mlb)
Click to expand...
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[1-1 -0.45u]

Haven't played anything yet, but here's a few I am strongly considering...

  • Ohio State -14 ...Buckeyes are #4 in the country, coming off a
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    Big Ten title, they have stars, depth and history and the Ohio State University has a new QB plus a defense filled with new faces. OSU has dominated the series against Minnesota. During their 11-game winning streak, the Buckeyes' average margin of victory is 21.6 points. Minnesota fielded one of the worst defenses in 2020 (30.1 points per game) and you can expect this Ohio State offense to air it out early and often with Minnesota unable to find an answer. Justin Field's QB loss will be evident in their game, but the return of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson will be seen and exploited. Chris Olave had 50 receptions for 729 yards and seven touchdowns in just seven games. Tanner Morgan is back for Minnesota, but they lost their #1 receiving option Rashod Bateman.
  • NC State -19 ...NC State is an intriguing sleeper in the ACC this year, a lot of people are very high on their prospects. The Wolfpack return nearly all of a solid defense that improved over the course of last season. They also return QB Devin Leary who went 3-0 in his 3 starts last year before getting injured. Leary passed for 890 yards and 8 touchdowns in 4 appearances, so he should provide NC State enough firepower to cover in this spot. Meanwhile, South Florida went 1-8 in 2020 with their only win coming over FCS squad Citadel. USF's scoring defense ranked 125th at 44.1 points allowed per game, with 7 of their 9 games allowing 34+ points. Their offensive line was awful, giving up 30 sacks in 9 games. NC State will get home to the QB and should force some turnovers with some pressure. NCS's defense isn't on this level, but USF scored 7 points combined in 2 games vs. Notre Dame + Cincinnati last year. They only really came alive against the other weaker AAC defenses, and even then only put up 13 vs. a decent Tulsa D. In summary, I'm high on NC State this year and down on USF. Some are expecting a jump up from the Bulls in Year 2 under HC Jeff Scott, but given the COVID restrictions last year, I don't think the situation provides for obvious cohesion and improvement as a program.
  • Boise / UCF over 68 ...These will be the two of the best offensive teams in their conference. UCF gets Dillon Gabriel back at QB who can do it all. Even though they get their whole O Line back, they were average at best but should give Gabriel enough time to throw. Gus Malzohn's offense won’t be able to get much of a push against the always stout Boise St D-line so they will be forced to pass, which will lengthen the game. Also, the Boise secondary isn't anything special, they gave up 13 yards per completion and the one game they faced an elite passing attack they got torched for 51 points. UCF’s new Co-Offensive OC is out of Hawaii who threw up 32 on Boise with much less talent. UCF will again be a top 10 scoring offense and should put up around 45 in this game. Now for Boise St who will be starting either Bachmeyer or Sears, personally I think Sears is better but Bachmeyer is proven. Last year Boise averaged 34 a game and they now have a new OC who is extremely pass heavy. They get all their WRs back, their two great QBS, and UCF's defense will probably again, be god awful. They gave up 33 PPG last year and the 4 teams that compared to Boises offense last year tagged them for, 50, 36, 46, 49. So Boise will be able to at least get 40. UCF's games hit this number 7 times last year. Here is how I am reading this line; UCF is a -5 favorite and they give up an average of 45 points to offenses who ranked near the top in the country in scoring (Boise St #27), UCF’s new OC has experience with the Boise D so that mean's to me Vegas has this total way off. Gives maybe 2-3 scores of breathing room. I could easily see this being one of the highest scoring games of the year with two very average defenses and two elite offenses. This line has been moving against us but I am not worried, I don’t see either offense going backwards, only forwards. One of the main reasons this line is moving against the over is due to Auburns snap count numbers the previous season and I understand that UCF will not average 84 snaps a game in their new offense but Malzohn wasn’t even calling plays last year at Auburn & they’ll be in a constant no huddle so that’s no concern to me. I also get that Avilia for Boise is a defensive minded coach but his defense finished 56th in the country last year, and like I said, Boises secondary gave up 13 yards per catch last year, not impressive. I like this enough to make it huge but with it being week 1, the line movement and two new coaches, gonna hold back but a little.
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  • ULL +8 ...For may, this is the game of the week. #21 vs #23 in the Texas heat. Look, Napier could've left for multiple Power 5 jobs but he chose to stick around one more year because he knows they've got something special. They are returning 96% of production from their previous season where they whooped Iowa State and honestly, should've beat Coastal Carolina. Levi Lewis is as veteran as a QB as they come and he will prove to be so. ULL matches up just fine with Texas and their experience returning is once in a decade. Texas on the other hand is one big question mark. They've been running two QBs since Spring and Sark doesn't seem too confident in replicating what he did at Bama. Maybe it's Sabanism and he doesn't want to give the media anything but I think it's Texas football being Texas football. He finally went with the freshman and I think this is a big ask in Card’s first game. Bijan will be a problem both running and catching the football for every team this year but the offense wasn't the issue last year, they were top 10 in scoring and say what you want but Ehlinger was a damn good college QB. The defense is the problem, they've got all these 4 and 5 star recruits out there who are afraid to tackle, they lose 4 of the top 5 leading tacklers and it’s only natural that those changes will come along some slow adjustments. Texas gave up 140 yards a game rushing last season in a lack luster rushing conference of the Big 12. Meanwhile, ULL exposed people gaining 5.4 per carry. I think Texas will be a solid team in the future under Sark but it’s ALL new for them. I think ULL's experience and desire will win this football game.
  • UNC -5½/ML ...UNC has a chance to be a top team in the country this year and will give Clemson a run for their money in the ACC. They lost Surrat but brought back 8 starters on D and the whole O-line. UNC lost a lot of production at WR and RB but I think Sam Howell is good enough to make those around him succeed. Last season’s game was a shootout and UNC got torched on the ground by Herbet but thankfully he gone. Sam Howell had a solid game against the VT D going 18/23 for 257 & 3 TDs and I expect him to surpass that here. VT is a solid team and are no slouch, however, I am extremely high on UNC, Sam Howell and Mack Brown so I don’t think they drop the first game of the year. This game won't be the offensive shootout like last year and has a chance to start slow and be close but at the end I think UNC pulls away and wins by a 2+ scores. I'll prolly have so ML as well as laying the wood.
 
one more...
  • 3/2.73 Incarnate Word +6½ -110

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Incarnate Word +6½ ...UIW averaged 42 points per game on offense last season. The bad news about them? They averaged 42 points allowed per game on defense. UIW returns just about everyone on offense including Jerry Rice award winner Cameron Ward at QB (183-for-303, 2260 yards, 24-4 TD-INT in the Spring season) and RB Kevin Brown (74-775-10.5 in the Spring season). There is no reason to think the offense will slow down much this season. The defense returns its top 19 tacklers. You have to hope this was a point of emphasis in the offseason and we see some improvement. If they can just cut down to about 30 ppg allowed (possible in the Southland conference) they will probably be the team to beat in their conference. Youngstown St looks to be a bottom tier MVC team. On offense they only averaged 15 ppg and 267 ypg in the Spring season. It sounds like they will be starting a freshman at QB and moving last year’s starting QB to the wildcat position. I’m thinking the freshman QB will make a couple mistakes in his first ever game and a couple stops might be all UIW needs to cover the spread. I feel good getting more than a TD here as I could easily see ICW winning outright.
 
CFB

LAST - [3-1 +5.45u]
YEAR - [4-2 +5u]

Friday:
  • 3/2.86 North Carolina -5½ -105
  • 3/2.86 Duke -6½ -105
  • 3/2.78 1H WAKE FOREST -19½-108

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  1. UNC ...the Heels have big expectations coming into this season and rightfully so. UNC's o-line are all returning starters which should give Sam Howell plenty of time to pick apart what was a very pedestrian VT defense last year. Howell is the preseason player of the year in the ACC. The reason for this is he completed 68 percent of his attempts for nearly 3600 yards and 30 TDs last year. Last year's game was a 56-45 shootout between these two teams and we shouldn't expect much different this season. The difference should be Howell and the fact that UNC has two of the best corners in the ACC. Expect VT QB Braxton Burmeister to be pressured all night by Heel's experienced and well coached(Mack Brown) D-line. This could lead to at least a couple of INTs from the Hokies and allow UNC to win going away.
  2. Duke ...Both teams are pretty bad but Duke is still a step above as I see it. I do think Cutcliffe is a solid coach who will bounce back from the dysmal 2020 season. The Charlotte D stinks as they have given up 30+ the past two seasons and they are returning just 5 starters from last year. Duke RB Durant should have a really solid game and as long as Duke manages their turnovers (losing Chase Brice helps) they should be able to put up the points and eventually pull away.
  3. Wake 1H ...ODU didn't even field a team last year and they were damn bad when they did. Wake returns most of what was the #26 pass offense in the nation a year ago and should be able to score almost at will. Like the 1H better as they may let up in 2H allowing for an open back door,
 
Duke line sketchy. They crushed Charlotte last season as bad as they were. I don’t get it. And yea I think odu will play better than say u conn who missed last season also but wake returning most of their offensive firepower:..I’m taking the over but I like your first half also
 
CFB

LAST - [1-2 -3.22u]
YEAR - [5-4 +1.78u]

Still looking things over but here's a few I targeted and still considering...

  • ULL +8 ...For may, this is the game of the week. #21 vs #23 in the Texas heat. Look, Napier could've left for multiple Power 5 jobs but he chose to stick around one more year because he knows they've got something special. They are returning 96% of production from their previous season where they whooped Iowa State and honestly, should've beat Coastal Carolina. Levi Lewis is as veteran as a QB as they come and he will prove to be so. ULL matches up just fine with Texas and their experience returning is once in a decade. 1630752664008.png Texas on the other hand is one big question mark. They've been running two QBs since Spring and Sark doesn't seem too confident in replicating what he did at Bama. Maybe it's Sabanism and he doesn't want to give the media anything but I think it's Texas football being Texas football. He finally went with the freshman and I think this is a big ask in Card’s first game. Bijan will be a problem both running and catching the football for every team this year but the offense wasn't the issue last year, they were top 10 in scoring and say what you want but Ehlinger was a damn good college QB. The defense is the problem, they've got all these 4 and 5 star recruits out there who are afraid to tackle, they lose 4 of the top 5 leading tacklers and it’s only natural that those changes will come along some slow adjustments. Texas gave up 140 yards a game rushing last season in a lack luster rushing conference of the Big 12. Meanwhile, ULL exposed people gaining 5.4 per carry. I think Texas will be a solid team in the future under Sark but it’s ALL new for them. I think ULL's experience and desire will win this football game.
  • Air Force Under U50 ...Air Forces defense will be a problem this year, they had 7 starters sit out last year and now have them back along with 4 guys who started last year so they pretty much have everyone back on a defense that's been statically top in the country in multiple categories the last few years. They will have to replace the whole O-line which could cause some communication problems early. They are picked to finish 3rd in a very solid Mountain West and have handled FCS opponents very easily in the past. Even though their offense led the country in rushing last year their offense struggled to score efficiently only putting up 24 PPG with Daniels and probably will again, however the defense will hold Lafayette to practically no points. Air Force will get ahead early and chew clock with the triple option. I don't expect Lafayette to just give up like we see some FCS opponents do in games like this because they are very well coached. Last year, Lafayette only played 3 games but they held opponents to 2.1 yards per carry. That tells me they're pretty solid against the run and according to the limited info out there on FCS schools, they have a veteran front. I still believe Air Force will triple option the shit out of them, let up under 100 yards, and cover this large spread but the under looks like the better angle imo.
  • S Mississippi +105 ML ...S Miss looks primed for a nice bounce back season. They had 8 players opt-out right before the 2020 opener vs South Alabama. They ended up losing 32-21 as a 13 point home-favorite. After that loss their HC Hopson resigned from his position (not a great sign about where the overall culture of the team was at). They started the year 1-5 and their interim head coach jumped ship for a job at Austin Peay after they got crushed by Rice. Their starting QB Jack Abraham (now at Mississippi State) opted out in the middle of the season. Despite all this, they showed some resolve finishing the season stronger under their 3rd head coach of the season. They went 2-2 in their last 4 games, but only lost by 3 to a strong UTSA team and ended their season against FAU putting up 45 points and 514 yards of total offense (305 on the ground!). This was an impressive performance considering that FAU defense only allowed 17 ppg and 342 yards per game last season. They didn’t allow more than 20 points in any other regular season game last year. There is enthusiasm at Southern Miss now as they have brought in former Tulane OC Will Hall. I saw this video on him on Twitter and was ready to run through a wall for him. I have no doubt he will have the team excited and ready to get revenge on South Alabama in their opener. Hall will also call the plays and you would have to imagine he will run a fast paced rushing offense like he did at Tulane. He has the tools to do it with stud RB Frank Gore Jr and QB Trey Lowe. Lowe didn’t play until the end of the season in 2020 but had his coming out party in the season finale against FAU where he put up 13-for-19, 209 passing yards, and 2 TD in the air and 70 yards on 16 rushes with a TD on the ground. Frank Gore rushed for 5.9 yards per carry as a true freshman in 2020 including a 9-111 performance against FAU in the finale. As a freshman his usage was low throughout the season (only topping 15 carries in a game one time) but they likely lean much heavier on him this season. He will be running behind the #5 O-Line in the conference according to Phil Steele. South Alabama is a defense that allowed 4.7 yards per carry last season and 174 rushing yards/game. With 17 returning starters and some added transfers I think Southern Miss can be a bounce back team this year. S Alabama is another team with a new HC in Kane Womack (former DC from Indiana). They brought in a transfer QB in Jake Bentley (Utah) and have a stud WR coming back in Jalen Tolbert. I wonder if it may take a little bit for them to click with a new QB, new RB, and new HC (who is defensive minded). They have the second worst O-Line in the conference according to Phil Steele and some sacks/holding penalties can be a killer in what looks like a close matchup. This one won’t be easy but I like S Mississippi chance to start the season with a road victory. There is enthusiasm in the program and they have the edge at offensive line. I think they will be able to run the ball with Gore and Lowe and it will take the S Alabama offense a little longer to get going.
  • Cincinnati -22½ ...Cincy is coming into this season as the #1 Group of 5 team. They are coming off a very impressive 2020 season that saw them go undefeated in the regular season and only losing 24-21 to Georgia in the Peach Bowl. I think their schedule is strong enough this year with road non-conference games against Notre Dame and Indiana (in addition to playing in a strong AAC conference) that if they go undefeated they will probably be able to sneak into the They bring a ton of guys back from that team including their stud QB Desmond Ridder. They have a very strong defense. Phil Steele has ranked their DL, LB, and Secondary all as the strongest units in the AAC. Mia-OH only played 3 games in 2020, including a 32-point loss to Buffalo. Like just about every team this year, they also bring lots of players back. They look like just another mid-tier MAC team. The AAC is way better than the MAC this year. I think CIN opens the season on a mission with the goal of reaching the college football playoffs. For a team like Cincinnati style points matter… and they know it. I don’t think they will take the foot off the gas until late in the 4th quarter today. I think Miami will really struggle to put up points on the Cincinnati defense, while the Bearcats offense (which averaged 38 points per game in 2020) should consistantly move the ball.
  • Oregon -20½ ...We can't really learn much from Fresno State's blowout win over UCONN. The RB duo for Oregon is fantastic against a Fresno D that struggled against the run last season. Fresno's strength in offensive pace will be mitigated by Oregon's much deeper and talented defense.
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  • FAU / Florida over 52½ ...The FAU offense brings back a load of starters and plugs in Miami transfer N'Kosi Perry at QB which is a definite upgrade. Emory Jones gets a chance to be the guy after playing in several garbage time minutes with the really good Florida offense last year. He will bring something different to the Florida offense using his legs from the QB position which a Dan Mullen's offensive loves.
  • UTSA +5 -...Illinois beating Nebraska means nothing in my eyes. Nebraska is in such a bad spot as a program. UTSA's RB McCormick is good and along with mobile QB UTSA should be able to move the ball on the ground as Illinois' D looked a bit shaky against Nebraska on the ground. I'll take the points and I will feel even better if Bielema tries to rush back Brandon Peters who got injured. Not to mention the Ilini have to be in a huge letdown spot after emotional win last week.
  • Western Michigan +16½ ...Is this the year for the Wolverines? Who knows. They only return 3 offensive starters and are currently predicted to be very average on defense according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. However, there’s one thing I do know and that is Western Michigan will score points in this ball game. This passing attack scored 40+ in 5 of 7 games last year. I know, MAC defenses aren’t Michigan’s defense but if WMU puts up 14-17 they likely cover.
  • Penn State +5½ ...This one is intriguing. How good is Wisky gonna be this year? Can they actually run the ball? Sean Clifford and the Penn State offense is going to have a tough time scoring but Wisconsin will as well. Penn State has covered the spread 7 of the last 9 times against the Badgers and Wisconsin has gone 1-4 against the spread in its last 5 home games as a favorite. I could see that trend continue today.
  • Alabama / Miami - Over 61½ ...Despite the loss of tremendous talent across the team, Alabama will have no problem scoring at will in this game. As we’ve seen year after year, Nick Saban’s recruiting classes and depth seem to fill the gaps in talent lost to the NFL. Alabama will score 50+ in this game so all Miami needs to do is score a couple of times, likely in garbage time to cover the over here.
 
Locked in these, may add a couple later...
  • 3/2.94 WESTERN MICHIGAN +16½-102
  • 3/3.30 Southern Miss +110
  • 3/2.86 Cincinnati -22½ -105
  • 3/2.86 Oregon -20 -105
  • 3/2.88 FLORIDA/ FAU u52-104
  • 3/2.86 UTSA +4½ -105
  • 3/2.83 AIR FORCE / LAF u49½-106
  • 3/2.94 Penn St +5½ -102
  • 3/2.86 Alabama / Miami-Fl OVER 61½ -10
  • 2.2/2 Alabama -10½ -110 for 1st Half
  • 3/2.75 1H ALABAMA / MIA-FL o31 -109

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CFB
Mixed bag yesterday, but eked out a small profit. :benchpress:

LAST - [6-5 +3.03u]
YEAR - [10-8 +5.26u]

TODAY:
  • 2/1.89 NOTRE DAME -7-106
  • 3/2.86 FSU / NOTRE DAME u54-105

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​
 
Sunday 0-2 -5u

Kiffin won't be there tonight due to protocol so I would have to assume they will have 2-3 scripted drives and try to get some early points. Louisville has Malik Cunningham but that's about it, he's got new talent all around him and you can expect it to take at least a quarter to get the ball rolling. While Ole Miss gets 4 guys back on the O line, had the top rushing attack in the SEC and I think the D will be much better. I think Lane;s 3 scripted drives he wants to run will work out to an early lead and a first quarter lead...after that it may play much closer.

  • 2.3/2 1Q MISSISSIPPI -3½-115
  • 2/1.03 Mississippi 1st Quarter -195

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CFB

LAST - [2-0 +3.03u]
YEAR - [12-10 +3.29u]

Friday:
  • 3/3.00 UTEP +25 -105
  • 3/2.40 Coastal Carolina -7 -125 -1st Quarter
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  1. Coastal Carolina 1Q -7 -125 ...Coastal is a very good, experienced team. I'm sure most know about them and all of the talent they have. Last year Coastal jumped out to a 28-0 halftime lead and I expect similar tonight. Kansas is actually worse than they were last year losing a bunch of people to the portal/their one good player, Pooka Williams leaving for the NFL. Coastal will get the ball 4-5 times in the 1H and you can expect points every time. Also I would like to play Coastal TT over for 1H if one of my books posts this...should be 22 or less
  2. UTEP +26 ...UTEP's offense is no slouch, they covered week 1 and last the offense put up 38 and they still failed to cover due to defensive liability. So far they're showing that they may have one of the best offenses in C-USA. Hardinson has a 207 QBR through 2 games and they're averaging 34 ppg. I understand they played two terrible teams but the offense has been working and the Boise D wasn't impressive last week. They had two timely interceptions thrown right to them and Boise played with incredible pace to open the game last week and then slowed it down in the 2H, we can expect similar tonight which gives UTEP more opportunities to score early. Boise is in a classic look ahead spot here (Okie St next week) and I think UTEP may take some advantage. Line opened at 27 then was bought down early to 24.5, and now the public has brought it back to 26. I like my chances with UTEP as my model shows around 20 point difference without look ahead consideration.
 
CFB

LAST - [0-2 -6u]
YEAR - [12-12 -2.71u]
  • 3/2.86 Army -6 -105
  • 3/2.86 South Carolina -2½ -105
  • 3/2.94 Iowa +4½ -102
  • 3/2.94 BALL STATE +22-102
  • 3/2.86 BYU +7 -105
  • 3/2.86 Georgia Southern +7 -105

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adds
  • 3/2.94 AIR FORCE -6-102
  • 3/2.86 Air Force / Navy UNDER 40 -105
  • 3/2.86 Northern Illinois +7 -105

random thots...
  • NIU +7 ...I love me some MAC football, nothing better than a1631368206161.png freezing cold November Tuesday night game in the middle of bumfuck Illinois, anyways NIU was terrible last season as they were extremely young and couldn’t do anything in the MAC. However, QB transfer Rocky Lombardi had a great showing against Ga Tech and they seem to be growing and developing as a team. While Wyoming lost to an FCS team, I think the line is wrong in this one, so I’m taking the +7 home dog and see what happens.
  • AF -6 & U40 ...Navy got absolutely pounded last week, their offense was abysmal and same with their “defense” if that’s what you want to call it. Navy ran 4 QBS last week so they obviously don’t have a clear #1, that’ll be a problem vs a solid Air Force D. In the past 4 years AF’s offense has held it’s own with the Navy defense scoring, 40, 25, 35, and 45. The new Air Force O-line looked decent in their tune up game rushing for 370 yards and the defense let up under 50 rushing yards but got slightly exposed by the pass which was surprising given they had one of the best pass defense in the country last year. The good thing for AF is that Navy can’t pass given they don’t even have a QB. Air Force won 40-7 last season, the 4 dudes who scored those 40 points are all back for AF and they seem to have a new weapon in Micah Davis. The defense should be in the backfield all game and the offense could very easily roll. If this game was in Colorado Springs, the spread would be -10. although I think Air Force is the much better team The reason I am taking the ML and the juice is because although I think Air Force is the much better team, they’ve really struggled when travelling to Annapolis and that transitions to the under as well. Service Academy under’s, generally just take them every time no matter the total. The clock doesn’t stop, the defenses know what’s coming and it comes down to who wants it the most. Both teams got beat via the pass last week and held their own against the run. Diego Fagot for Navy will be the best player on the field and I expect him to keep Air Forces offense in check. Honestly, the past few AF/Navy games have been higher scoring but this one should be different for a few reasons; this is the most experienced defense Air Force has had, Navy’s offense is obviously a big question mark, they have up 9 sacks last week and service academies unders. The game is being play on the 20th anniversary of 9/11, so there will be added hype and many more eyes on this contest.
 
The GA play was obviously 1H although I forgot to add that part, no where was that line available on the game lol

here's picks for some night games, not mine but a decent cappers opinion

NC State (-3) at Mississippi State, 7 p.m. (ESPN2)​

It’s a bit surprising to see NC State favored in this one, though Mike Leach’s team did struggle to fend off Louisiana Tech last week while the Wolfpack blanked USF 45-0. Maybe this is the year Dave Doeren’s team finally beats some above-average teams, but I’ll have to see it with my own eyes first. Mississippi State 27, NC State 24

Pick: Mississippi State (+3)

Missouri at Kentucky (-5), 7:30 p.m. (SEC Network)​

This is a good one. I could see either of these teams finishing as high as second in the SEC East. We’ll certainly get a better sense of just how powerful the Wildcats’ new Will Levis/WanDale Robinson offense can be than we did against Louisiana-Monroe. But this one could easily go right down to the wire. Kentucky 33, Missouri 31

Pick: Missouri (+5)

Washington at Michigan (-7), 8 p.m. (ABC)​

I’m not sure what it says about Michigan that the Huskies, who scored 7 points in a loss to FCS Montana last week, are traveling to Ann Arbor and it’s still a one-score spread. Both teams are dealing with injuries at receiver (in particular, Michigan losing Ronnie Bell for the season) that could turn this into a grinder. Michigan 22, Washington 13

Pick: Michigan (-7)

No. 21 Utah (-7) at BYU, 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)​

It is such a shame the Holy War did not take place last season when Zach Wilson was at his peak for BYU. The Jaren Hall era got off to a mixed start in last week’s 24-16 win over Arizona. They’ll play better this week, but Utah quarterback Charlie Brewer is the real deal and could give the Cougars’ inexperienced defense fits. Utah 38, BYU 27

Pick: Utah (-7)

Stanford at No. 14 USC (-17), 10:30 p.m. (Fox)​

One week late, David Shaw is handing the starting quarterback job to Tanner McKee, less experienced than Jack West but with much higher upside. Expect the Cardinal offense to look more competent this week. But Stanford’s defense is highly suspect and about to face a more balanced version of Graham Harrell’s Air Raid. USC 34, Stanford 20

Pick: Stanford (+17)

Upset Special: Houston (-7.5) at Rice, 6:30 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)​

Rice has been gradually improving under fourth-year coach Mike Bloomgren — the Owls stunned then-undefeated Marshall 20-0 last season. Whereas Houston, which just got run over by Texas Tech, feels like it’s moving in the wrong direction. This is a great opportunity for defensive-led Rice to pull the upset. Rice 24, Houston 20

Pick: Rice (+7.5)
Click to expand...
 
CFB

LAST - [1-0 +3.96u]
2021 - [19-15 +9.46u]

Sat
  • 4/3.70 MIAMI FLORIDA -6½-108
  • 4/3.81 Michigan -27 -105
  • 4/3.85 BUFFALO UNIVERSITY +14-104
  • 4/3.85 WAKE FOREST -4½-104
  • 4/3.81 Kansas State +1½ -105
  • 4/3.81 Louisiana Tech +11 -105
  • 4/3.81 Kansas +17½ -105
  • 4/3.85 NORTHWESTERN -2½-104
:shake:
 
adding...
rafael-mantesso-jimmychoo.gif

  • 4/3.64 1H Florida +8½ -110
  • 4/3.81 Alabama / Florida OVER 60 -105
  • 4/3.77 1H ALABAMA o31-106
  • 4/3.81 Southern Miss +11 -105
  • 4/3.81 Utah State +9 -105
  • 4/3.85 SAN DIEGO STATE +8-104
  • 4/3.92 CENTRAL MICHIGAN +19½-102
  • 4/3.48 BYU +3½-115
  • 4/3.88 UNLV +32-103

CWViz0e.jpeg
 
CFB

LAST - [0-0-1 0u]
2021 - [27-23 +7.73u]

Sat
  • 4/3.81 Arizona State -14 -105
  • 4/3.81 NC State +10½ -105
  • 4/3.70 FLORIDA STATE +1 -108
  • 4/3.81 BOSTON COLLEGE +1 -105
  • 4/3.85 BALL STATE +5 -104
  • 4/3.85 EASTERN MICHIGAN -7 -104
  • 4/3.81 South Carolina +5 -105
  • 4/3.81 Rutgers +20 -105
  • 4/4.04 WASHINGTON -7½ +101
  • 4/3.85 KANSAS +16 -104
  • 4/3.88 GEORGIA STATE +27 -103
  • 4/3.96 COLORADO +14 -101
  • 4/3.88 WEST VIRGINIA +17 -103
  • 4/3.81 UL Monroe +23½ -105
  • 4/4.00 Stanford +4 +100
  • 4/3.81 Kent State +13½ -105
  • 4/3.81 Indiana -9 -105

4upWq9X.gif
 
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