Auburn vs Florida St. - BCS National Championship - Rose Bowl - Discussion

GoIrish!

GoIrish!

Pretty much a regular
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[TD="colspan: 8"]<small>Auburn vs Florida State - BCS National Championship - Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA</small>[/TD]
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[TD]Mon 1/6[/TD]
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[TD]269 Auburn[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S1_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +8½ -110[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +255 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o65 -110 [/TD]
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[TD]8:30PM[/TD]
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[TD]270 Florida State[/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="S2_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -8½ -110 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -310 [/TD]
[TD]<input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u65 -110[/TD]
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:confused2:
 
FSU is probably 14-17 points better than Auburn. That said, AU money line
 
gps_3 said:
FSU is probably 14-17 points better than Auburn. That said, AU money line
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Playing with that horseshoe up their ass all season, why won't it continue capping? I like it. Hell, Jaboo will probably finally feel the jitters and toss 3-4 INTs handing Barn a close W.
 
I wish Auburn had more than a speck of D....id feel much better about their chances. I have Aubby D rated below plenty of teams that FSU has put up 40+ on. Have to think Auburn will need 40+ to win. This isnt 2011 with Nick Fairley and Kiki Alonso. Dont see Auburn shutting down a great O like in that game.
 
D-Woww said:
not sure auburn has seen a d like FSU's yet
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Bama? I think Auburn will be able to run at some point....no reason to think they wont. But can they stop FSU at all? Good thing we've only got 4 weeks to think about it.
 
duh, that was pretty stupid thing for me to say when they just played bama...bujt even in that game they needed a ton of luck to get to 28
 
Similar defensive styles and talent. The way to beat the AU offense is to stay disciplined no matter what it looks like is happening. Marshall is really good at running the read option and Mason is a tough back. The rest of the skill players are average, but are put in great situations to succeed. It also helps that they have a pretty good OL that is allowed to run block on pass plays with no penalty called. If I were Jimbo, I'd be in the ear of the officiating crew from the minute they are announced about that
 
gps_3 said:
Similar defensive styles and talent. The way to beat the AU offense is to stay disciplined no matter what it looks like is happening. Marshall is really good at running the read option and Mason is a tough back. The rest of the skill players are average, but are put in great situations to succeed. It also helps that they have a pretty good OL that is allowed to run block on pass plays with no penalty called. If I were Jimbo, I'd be in the ear of the officiating crew from the minute they are announced about that
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I have noticed them crossing that 2 yard buffer ss well. Hard to tell an AU fan thst though.
 
booksbestfriend said:
I have noticed them crossing that 2 yard buffer ss well. Hard to tell an AU fan thst though.
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Checknout their last offensive play against Alabama. Three OL 5 yards down field and the FB blocking CJ Mosely before and during the throw. Huge advantage for the offense if that's not called: safeties and CBs are taught to read the run keys of the OL. Once they start blocking downfield, you leave the WR because it's a run or a penalty. Except when it's not.
 
how many times have we seen these high tempo offenses finish the season with momentum, but 5 weeks off and a half decent coaching staff preparing against them, they go cold
 
Alan Tongue said:
how many times have we seen these high tempo offenses finish the season with momentum, but 5 weeks off and a half decent coaching staff preparing against them, they go cold
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Quite often. Though its equally often that those same teams are fading as the year goes on. Happens to Oregon, the Big 12 teams, Clemson, etc. They tend to peak in the middle of the season and wear down as it goes on, I'm not altogether sure why, but I've noticed it over and over. This Auburn team is getting better each week, in fact you could argue that they didn't get it figured out until a few weeks ago. Very different sort of animal. I would hesitate to put them in that same category these the other rhythm and tempo spread attacks that we've seen struggle with time off.
 
TheGarfather said:
Quite often. Though its equally often that those same teams are fading as the year goes on. Happens to Oregon, the Big 12 teams, Clemson, etc. They tend to peak in the middle of the season and wear down as it goes on, I'm not altogether sure why, but I've noticed it over and over. This Auburn team is getting better each week, in fact you could argue that they didn't get it figured out until a few weeks ago. Very different sort of animal. I would hesitate to put them in that same category these the other rhythm and tempo spread attacks that we've seen struggle with time off.
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My biggest bet of the 2010 season was AU/UO under in the 1q and 1h. Think the final score for the game fell under the 1h total.

I think there are a couple of factors involved. One is that tempo teams take advantage of the defense getting tired. At the end of the season, all the bumps and bruises wear down the defense even faster. With 5 weeks off, they come in healthier than they've been all season. Another is that timing is crucial for those offenses, and you can't reproduce game speed on the practice field. Can't scrimmage because you can't chance an injury before a huge game. Also, the players spend 5 weeks watching highlights and hearing how unstoppable they are on offense, the awards circuit, and vacation time are all hard things to bounce back from and play the biggest game of your career. Add in the pressure from a championship atmosphere, both for the coaches and players, and you get a little more conservative because you don't want to get behind early. And as you said, 5 weeks for a defensive staff to gameplan is much different than having 1 week. Teams that have a bye before playing Ga Tech, Navy, etc do much better than those that don't
 
The Auburn D allowed 6 yards per play this year. Against the five best opponent offenses:

Opp / yards per play / yards / points / notes

LSU -- 6.9-457-35 -- LSU only had better yards-per-play numbers against Miss St and Arkansas
A&M -- 7.3-602-41 -- A&M only had better yards-per-play numbers against Miss St and Alabama
UGA -- 7.2-532-38 -- UGA only had better yards-per-play numbers against Kentucky
Bama --7.7-495-28 -- Bama only had better yards-per-play numbers against Kentucky and Arkansas
Mizzou --7.5-534-42 -- the yards and yards per play were Mizzou's best in any SEC game
 
M.W. said:
The Auburn D allowed 6 yards per play this year. Against the five best opponent offenses:

Opp / yards per play / yards / points / notes

LSU -- 6.9-457-35 -- LSU only had better yards-per-play numbers against Miss St and Arkansas
A&M -- 7.3-602-41 -- A&M only had better yards-per-play numbers against Miss St and Alabama
UGA -- 7.2-532-38 -- UGA only had better yards-per-play numbers against Kentucky
Bama --7.7-495-28 -- Bama only had better yards-per-play numbers against Kentucky and Arkansas
Mizzou --7.5-534-42 -- the yards and yards per play were Mizzou's best in any SEC game
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What does it look like from the other direction?
 
it's all about the trenches..auburn averages over 6.5 yards a carry. the oline is no joke. people have to respect this team imo. It's not really an oregon uptempo team..it just seems that way because they get 7-8-9 yards a pop running. will be interesting to see how jimbo coaches the biggest game of his life.
 
TheGarfather said:
If someone were inclined to look at the over, it would be easy to talk themselves into it, would it not?
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Yes, but I prefer the FSU team over. Auburn has little chance of keeping FSU under 37 or 38, which is where the team total should be.

As for the over, FSU hasn't faced an offense like Auburn's. Clemson obviously throws the ball much better than Auburn, but Clemson doesn't have the same kind of OL and rushing game. Yet Clemson's tailbacks ran effectively against FSU. FSU's run D hasn't been fully tested, and it is possible that Auburn will have some success against an excellent FSU defense. So, if I could get that Auburn-Oregon game from three years ago out of my mind, I would be pretty big on the over.
 
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