Attention Be Carefull with BOWLS this Year

[Sammy Meatballs]

After I loss UTAH the other day I had the strangest feeling ever that this bowl season was going to be completely unpredictable and tough to win.

Following that loss I just knew that no matter what I took would lose. After that I think we noticed some real strange things happen.

Cincy had a huge lead twice and played no Defense and then threw an INT in a situation late where it would be almost guaranteed to at least kick the 3 points. It just seemed that SMISS was going to lose for sure but cover.

Following tha game Nevada was highly touted and a lot of people were on this game, as I was. Then they got shutout, the 7th highest scoring team scores 0 points?

Then BYU wins the game but does not cover again.

This whole year has been screwed up with bullshit, and now I am seeing easy wins turning into losses? I am wondering if anyone feels that something strange is going on with these games, it seems that we have the game won and are relaxed and then the game takes a turn and you lose.

I feel that this year is EXPECT the unexpected:

Navy throws a 80 yard pass to get the cover. Their D stops Utah for a half.

SMiss runs all over Cincy in 2nd half, getting the cover by answering 2 touchdowns in 2nd half.

Nevada scores 0 points with 7th ranked offense.

Ucla was supposed to be in dissarray but were not, and almost won.

I think the message here is that what we perceive teams to be at the end of the season is not what we are getting in the bowl games. Its kind of like paying for an expensive bottle of Red Wine and then getting Koolaid.

The reason I am posting this is in past years, it seems the unexpected in these games happened and everyone including myself lost big. The last 4 years I reduced my plays real small. If you just look at this fact when ever someone has a big play or a game of the year play on the Bowl game why is it that these games not only lose, but get blown out the other way? The chances of a GOY or a bigger bet that someone posts is 50-50 but it seems that it hits about 20% of the time.

I can explain this fact to a theory I have. People win all the time on small to average sized bets and then say after seeing how easy it is, I should have nailed that one for way more. There are hardly any bettors that bet the same amount over and over and do not play a bet big. Such a person would be a genius because they stand a chance to win in the longrun.

So why do people feel the need to bet GOY's or bigger plays, and more importantly if they were GOY or bigger plays they should be hitting more.

-One reason why they lose is because 90% of the time they are a favorite.
-Also they are usually a road favorite under a Td or in basketball a road favorite usually around -3.

What happens is we try to name the score. We all do it. Everyone with the play of the year it seems that the spread is a low one and that person feels that one team will blow the other out. Now with this information what happens is that the person becomes very strong and puts a larger amount on this game.

I think that to find a real edge on a GOY you need to look at outright wins vs LINES. One would think that you would figure a team is going to win the game and is getting points at home, like 5 to 6 in BBALL and 7+ in football. If you are convinced that they will win, then this constitutes a GOY or a bigger bet.

Is Vegas trapping us?? In the forum today big plays were on Mizzouri -3 over Illinios. I tailed Mizzou, which was the right play from the experts here. Now why does the result always turn out the same? Because as I said above I think these games are harder to cap, and not the ones to put big money on.
I see many winners on Underdogs, but then when the bigger plays are released it is usually a favorite. Like the Central Michigan -2.5 over the Wisconsin Millwaukee game, another sure winner which did not win?

I do not see many people really posting big or GOY plays on dogs at +7 +11 +14 even though they take these games as regular plays and win on them. This is a trap as it would be better even if people posted GOY's at -10 -13 that were gonna win by 25+ that is better. Even in NBA this year the Cavs blew that game at the Nets and they were also -2.5 points? This line has killed us, because it is not a trap line, but it is a TRAP line on a Bigger bet, you should play the game but not huge, as we all know the team getting the +2.5 wins somehow.

I am perplexed why we can always hit winners consistently but then when we step up really large on one game it usually always loses, and there is controversy and injuries and just bad reffing and bad luck. It cannot be coincidence, I think it is the type of games that are luring us in for big bets are always the same type of games with the same lines.

I find if we just have a checklist before major plays we would save ourselves money.
Ex- IS the play an underdog
Is the team on the road
is this is a close game
Does the other team have a chance to win
Possibly most important is who are we betting ON and who are we betting against. I think you almost need a business like team that plays like PROFESSIONALS. An example of this has been USC, from the coach to the D, to the O, to the coordinators, even to the bloody Band this team means business and wins games and covers them especially in BOWLS.
In the CFL I hit many large and GOY bets with the Toronto ARGOS because their D was unreal, it was able to shut down the other team for sure and dominate.


I think that we give one team no chance to win, like this week with Wisconsin Millwaukee and Illinois. Its like an injured dog, once that dog is injured you don't know what it will do, it might faint or go nuts like CUJO.

I hope we can use this and learn from our mistakes and hit bigger and larger GOY type plays. Overall though I think we have to put confidence in more dogs that we think are LIVE in GOY situations. Perhaps there are no GOY situations as it is strange that cappers that can hit way more winners on the year all seem to lose the biggest ones? How is this possible that we as cappers can win more games but cannot win the games we feel the strongest about? I think our own rating strength on games is flawed.

I don't think VEGAS is trapping us with the lines, but they are trapping us into putting big money on all the wrong games, which is usually a low favorite team that gives us the idea that they will blow the other team out, and we all know how that outcome turns out, but we continue to do it over and over.

 

[HUNT]

great post

 

[Houghton Chemical]

Great post Sammy. I completely agree. But the point you make about playing on GOOD teams is something I've started doing mid way through the NCAA football season. No more plays on Baylor, Duke, even if they do cover. It's just become too risky and unpredictable. People can talk about value in the line all they want, but I just don't see value anymore in a large-midsize dog. Like you said, they could come out flat and be "what we thought them to be" or they could come out and play like Pitt did as 21 pt dogs at WV. So basically, right on par with you, I'm taking this new strategy into my capping from now on. Thanks for the post, much more detailed and concise that I could've been.

 

[G-Man]

Most of your perception is correct Sammy. There are games that do qualify as GOY type plays though. Not from pay per win cappers though. There are five of mine that hit this year. They were 5-0. But that deosnt mean much unless you know what it takes to have a GOY play.

In truth, it has nothing to do with the spread, in that, its has everything to do with the scoring potential and defenseive capacity. The spread just exposes it and makes it easier to win if you know what side to be on.

Your logic about margins of pointspreads are valid, but still - there has to be a neutralizing factor when these GOY plays show up. Knowing those factors are the ONLY way to have a GOY play.

To me a GOY play has to have a background of history that is completely based on statistical factors. Trends are worthless to me. They ALL lose, after enough time. But statistical factors have nothing to do with trends at all.

What your writing about, - is exactly trends - by these GOY guys that sell their plays to the public.

I can say that in most of the plays I have, that one would call a GOY type play, every capper I ever followed was against my plays. There were 5 game situations this season that qualified, 3 I bet on and two I bet against. All were correct going 5-0 ATS. All in Pro football. I have NEVER had one in college ball that qualified.

The only thing though that causes point spreads in the first place is betting habits by the public. The size fo the spread must be determined by team potentials. It is then compensated by public betting habits.

Once the oddsmaker has a real value for the spread and a team plays within those parameters consistently enough, he then can move that number to do two things. Adjust it for even action on the two teams, or move it in his favor when he knows by habits of the gambling masses, that he will win it with a large percentage of money and bets on the losing side.

If there is any other way to make the pointpsread accurate for even action everyone would know when it was off. Only when someone truly understands how it is set, does it become visible to bet against an obvious team as a GOY type play.

I had this conversation with many experienced gamblers over the last 20 plus years and none of them can see a GOY in advance of a season. But trends do give that false perception that there is one at any given time by these guys that tout them.

A statistical system play is one that really has merit. Knowing where it comes from and how its calculated is crucial and then you have a GOY play.

If a GOY play is based on trends and has no statistical value, it will always fail when that encounter by the two teams fall out of the paramater that created it in the first place.

I could write about this for hours but many gamblers wouldnt agree to alot of the factors. That being said - they wouldn't know what it takes to set the pointspread in the first place, although they think they know.

Good story line that you wrote here, but its full of perception and thats what misleads many gamblers on most of the losses we have in the first place. Perception.

:shake:



.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Good thoughts GMAN and Houston CHEMICAL.

I think I have narrowed it down to what I was trying to say above.

In sports if you win there is a good chance you will cover the game in football for sure and somewhat in basketball also.

When I cap games I try to cap an outright winner, and then the spread is just an equalizer that VEGAS has put in place for equal action on games. So when you have your straight up winners, you bet them and should cover the games.

When looking at games I think it is people's tendency to look at smaller road favorites because of two reasons.
-The line is lower because they are on the road
-All you have to do is basically win the game also with the better team.

THis looks easy as many people make this bet over and over and it loses quite a bit.

Other frame of mind could be that you cap some games and have some outright winners that you feel will win like Phoenix in NBA over Toronto and Jacksonsville this year at home when they are 9.5 point favorites. We are scared away from these spreads because we feel yeah they may win, but the line is set correct. This line of thinking is wrong, because if these teams do not cover there is a good chance they will lose. In fact when Phoenix and Jackonsville win at home they usually cover the spread. Similarly if someone loves Oakland tomorrow to win the game vs Jackonsville without factoring in points, they would have an easy bet on Oakland It just depends on how you cap the game from an X's and O's standpoint.

Now Win No Covers are rare but are happening more this week partly because the lines are higher as well, Dallas and Cincy were -10.5 and Utah was -8 so it is possible, but that is not a common spread for a road team at 10.5.

To summarize we tend to look at the lowest spread to bet on BIG because we think that they will cover the spread easier than a higher favorite.

This week I capped two games without knowing the lines and came up with Tampa beating the 49'ers and indy beating the houstons. I just played both laying the points.

THe pick that summarizes this whole statement tomorrow is Cleveland -3 at the BENGALS. This looks easy for a Cleveland win vs a team like the Bengals that has quit on the year. I can guarantee you that someone would bet $500 or $1000 on Cleveland before they bet on Indy, because Indy is laying -7. But if you win, you cover and I like INdy at home with MANNING vs a depleted Texans secondary. I am not afraid of the lines and going to overthink it, I am just playing straight up winners and then putting those teams with the spread.

VERY KEY POINT:
At the end of the day forget about the spread and Vegas and sharps and syndicates, all that stuff means nothing to the game. What means anything is that a game will be played and you must figure out from an X's and O's standpoint who will win the game.
Nevada vs New Mexico, I fell into taking Nevada because a guy I know had it as a GOY and many others had it as well. The funniest thing is before I bet it, I did my X's and O's and had Nevada scoring only 7 points vs the 23rd ranked D in the nation in New Mexico. I saw the rookie QB from NEVADA struggling big time and he did. I let all the other bs screw me into selecting Nevada even though I knew they would not score vs New Mexico.

Tomorrow NFL I am taking what I believe to be advantages on both sides of the ball with TAMPA and INDY, and that should translate into wins, it is that simple.

 

[grapevinekid]

Sammy: In most yrs, I find the bowl gms the hardest in any sport to handicap. Historically I've done well in the early gms but tend to give back those profits in the New Year's day gms. In all but the national championship gm which I've done very well handicapping, it's hard to predict what kind of focus the teams have and I think the motivation factor is emphasized even more when the layoff is longer in the later bowl gms.

I do agree that if you can pick the straight up winner in the gm that you most often will get the money. But this yr the SU winner is only 3-3 ATS in bowl gms so big lines in bowl gms can challenge that approach.

I'm not sure how anyone could call a pick a GOY pick when you don't know what lines the book will offer in future wks but to each his own.

 

[SportsNut]

Good Topic Gentleman

Please bare with me here. I would like to get involved with this discussion but I may have trouble reading the whole post in a timely manner ( I am being serious- damn ADD! ).

First thing I would like to touch on is this new craze about public betting , fading the blah , blah , blah , sharps and so on.

- You will NEVER know exactly what games books have positions or lopsided action on. You will NOT know the dollar amounts. You will NOT know what type of ML , teaser and parlay action is tied to a game which does INFLUENCE line movement. You may be able to see some irrational line movement that could clue you to a LINE being off. It really doesnt have as much to do with betting %s then knowing what a line should be ste at.

- Now obviously there are people who do this at a high level profesionally just like in the stock , bond and commodities market. There are also many traders in those fields who when they see public perception irrationally forming an opinion will fade and go the other way. There is NOTHING wrong with this mentality. There are alot of contrarian investing newsletter out there. What's wrong is the application of this mindset. You cannot be trying to figure out the consensus of every game and going opposite. You cannot believe that this is some sort of conspiracy to take your money. What it is to me is a challenging puzzle to decipher ( by this I mean picking winners longterm and winning longterm). So remember linesmakers do make mistakes. However those mistakes are RARELY going to be on high profile , heavily wagered events. Simply because if they are eventually they will be out of a job.

- So trust for the most part these guys know what they are doing. Learn how to predict lines. When "Your" line differs from the real line. Don't act !! Ask yourself why is my line different , what I am discounting , why have they adjusted up or down?? Treat it as if there is a piece of missing information you have overlooked. After this process if all avenues are covered then place your wager accordingly. If you are baffled pass and fight another battle!! I don't believe if you GUESS yo have a 50/50 shot mainly cause even when you guess some thought is affecting your decision one way or another and there is some rationalization involved. So it's never a pure guess.

- What I will say about fading public opinion is this. You have to be very selective but it can be profitable. More so it depends heavily in my opinion on LOGIC. Such as you seeing a line move 2 or 3 points and the reasoning behind it is the play can't lose. You want one sided action and one sided perception. When you see a Line move ask you why would someone be betting this way. In poker they say to look around the table and if you can't spot the dead money its probably you then. Well in this if you cannot come up with a logical and reasonable arguement for playing the opposite side you probably are a SQUARE in that instince.

- I saw some comments by Sammy here that were sound. First I disagreed with him on the TB situation. I felt a team with not much to gain and limted depth , having to travel cross country facing a team who had a sound defense and running game with a QB who looked like he could make a play or two as big chalk was a bad situation. Coupled with the fact that they were playing 3rd straight home and defensively had been very good. The Vikings game thanks to so many turnovers decided SF fate. A pick 6 to open thegame plus numerous SF turnovers in Minny territory made that final worse then it looked and then what they did to Cincy. What I did like especially was how he understood that they could price Indy low at home vs Houston due to the fear of resting players. Plus he factored the Texans shortcomings that seemed to be masked by playing at home. I didnt play Indy cause I did fear Houston on offense. If I read GMan's commenst I would have though cause he rationalized the game so well.

- In the Bowl games I think if you sit down and look logically at them there hasnt been much of a suprise. Utah is a very sound team but Navy's gimmick offense makes them tough 2 defend. If you look at Utah I see a very similiar all round team to Pitt. While Navy got lucky with the backdoor they have scored quickly via the pass a few times this season. Also remember when Navy played @ Rutgers?? If not for a few bad turnovers that would have been a much different game and possibly outcome.
--SoMiss overcoming the crappy end to the 1st H was suprising but where was the clear value in -11?? A team like SoMiss had health issues at Qb all season and the month of was perfect for Young to get healthy and in some sort of a groove. Really if you bypass Cincy's first four or so games what had they done when the competition got better? You have to take into account role most of the big wins Cincy had came as dogs...also Cincy was run on by WVU and Pitt while Fletcher is damn solid and closer to the guys who play in those programs..
---Sorry I saw ZERO reason to take Nevada. They had a young QB playing in what was a home game for NM. Fitzpatrick definetly made them somewhat dangerous as an underdog but catching 2.5 or 3 you should not view them as a dog cause they need to win. He faced some terrible defenses and weasnt all that impressive down the stretch. Remember the Boise game no one knows about this kid or what to expect and being 24 pt dogs can help you play loose. They barely won @ Utah State the follwoing week. They played Hawaii's 2nd string WB well and so on....no matter what wethough about UNM we knew they could play defense...
----I thought BYU would win cause as you said UCLA seemed to be in disarray but as you stated we dont knwo what happens to these teams in the month off. Thats why we need to look at these games as competitive exhibitions especially in the lower tier bowls. Anothert factor is the parity in CFB these days. There is probably a star player or two separating alot of these programs...Also more simply was BYU is not an explosive offense but a well balanced attack playing another sound defense in UCLA..because of that the margin of error for BYU was slim....

I think most people know I don't really say things like GOY , GOM , etc. However why do people concern themselves with these titles? I mean does a GOY heading literally mean the poster feels this is THEE Game Of the Year or Just one of the better plays he has come across in recent memory. Why do people sem to lose a heavy % of these plays? Go back to what I said about understanding a line. If you think a line is off and don't ask why chances are you will mislead yourself into a big play on a differential based primarily on your miscalcualation.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with trying to name a score . Everyone should be doing this to get a feel for there pay. I said soemwhere today I thought there was a good chance the Cle game landed on 179 but was unsure. It landed on 178 . I did not pull the 179 number out of my ass. I calculated the score based on Cle winning playing there type of game and though 91-88 seemed logically....no one will predict the exact scores but the range can be done....

The Mizzou / Illini game a PERFECT example of the perceived better team laying a small number. So the bettor says they only have to win to cover..terrible way to cap...you have to determine if the line is fair. If you come up with -1 and say its really no different then -3 then your playing into the linesmakers hands. Perfect example today was Suns @ lakers. Check some NBA threads and you will see I felt the line hsould be a PKem. I wondered would the betting pattern be the same if Suns were PK , -1.5 or -2.5 ??If so then I understood why they had jacked the line up to -2.5...

The CMU game @ Milwaukee. perfect example of capping soley on stats and not situational. Everyone bet on CMU as the line closed at -5....BAD SIGN! Then every talked about how Milw could not overcome the loss of there best player especially it was the second occurrence. Overlooked was the fact that new players would become more involved and that CMU was off a huge upset.

I think it's human nature to shy away from calling a big dog at +14 a GOY type. Simply cause on paper the paper looks clearly better and there has to be some reservation in your mind about playing the dog cause you know its the inferior team. When taking a favorite even subconsciously you know you are riding with the better team and as you said in a situation where it may just have to win to pay.

Great point about USC being professional. I think they are the only college team that brings that professional consistency . However injuries this year made that tough to do week in week out. Excellent point about teams with there backs to the wall , do they come out fighting or lay down? You just don;t know and that is what makes them dangerous and alot of the times this is when you hear the easy talk as well...there simply is no concrete way to know what to expect from a given team . You must BET LINES and SITUATIONS not EXPECTATIONS.

I do think Vegas mission is to get us to wager on bad lines that don't seem so bad. basically get you to play a team 2 pts higher then they should be. This is the puzzle that we most consistently solve....

Real man of Genius (Gman):

The only thing though that causes point spreads in the first place is betting habits by the public. The size fo the spread must be determined by team potentials. It is then compensated by public betting habits.

Once the oddsmaker has a real value for the spread and a team plays within those parameters consistently enough, he then can move that number to do two things. Adjust it for even action on the two teams, or move it in his favor when he knows by habits of the gambling masses, that he will win it with a large percentage of money and bets on the losing side.

Good story line that you wrote here, but its full of perception and thats what misleads many gamblers on most of the losses we have in the first place. Perception.

This is mostly a game of perception vs reality...When looking at Bowl games though we know motivation and travel are also factors to be heavily weighed.....


The Moral of this story is understand more then just the sports aspect of it. You can't look at past performances to accurately predict the future there are to many intangibles we cannot account for. I agree that VALUE is so overrated as a term in this industry. Books really aren't setting traps they are using your betting patterns against you since you dont adjust!! Please dont ever say this I LOST but I STILL HAD THE RIGHT SIDE. Thats exactly what the books depend on. You to be stubborn and continue amking the same mistake. :hang:

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Good points SPORTNUT, I agree with you on everything.

The Suns game was a perfect example I guess of the line, they set it Phoenix -3 because they knew the betting patterns of the public and could set the line at -3. THe line should have been a pick but when they know Phoenix is the PUBLIC slash all offensive hyped team that plays no D they can set the line at -3.

That is why I wrote this, you are 100% right they rely on people never learning. We all know that a road favorite can win certainly, but overall you will not profit by taking road favorites over and over. However they are the most enticing games to take because they basically look like all you have to do is win the game. Instead of staying away from these bets people bet them over and over, and usually they are people's biggest bets of the season for sure.

I agree that you need to simulate your own scores and predict exactly the margin of victory and then consult the Vegas line and put your bet in.
Betting is all situational for sure and matchups, some people cap by just using the line or betting percentages, but what it really comes down to is that a game will be played with players and motivation and coaching will have to be factored in.

I have one thought that I think we can make a killing in now as SPORTNUT was saying. IN terms of situational capping this last week in the NFL was easy to see some of the results.

They set the lines of Dallas and GBAY as double digits vs anemic teams in Carolina and Chicago because of betting patters, they can make that line and still have people back those teams. But however us as cappers should have been able to realize one thing. Teams at this point are preparing for the post season and not for the cupcake teams. Teams will do enough to win, or just put up an effort, look at what TBAY did. Teams at home are more apt to play harder and still blow the other team out like Indy and Sandiego because fans pay money, and the coach feels they need to have momentum. GBAY -9?? The thing that I do know is that GBAY did not want to play that game last week? Why would they? Would you if you were a player on GBAY? Where is the motivation, what are they playing for? Anyone see Dallas in the 2nd half of the game vs Carolina go really conservative after OWENS got injured? ALso TBAY they played one half and then said here SanFran you guys take the WIN. THey got away this because of betting patterns, those were some easy opportunities to hit because the line was way way off.

This last week they have over compensated some lines more than likely, like New England -14.5 over Giants. GIants may be resting people but the Pats may also, and they will probably do enough to get the win, and not risk anything extra. In fact if the Giants starters are going to play, it looks good for the Giants. If they do not, Pats will build a lead and then also rest in 2nd half. But in this case the line has been over compensated as Sportnut said due to betting patterns of the public.

 

[tee*dub]

Please bare with me here. I would like to get involved with this discussion but I may have trouble reading the whole post in a timely manner ( I am being serious- damn ADD! ).

First thing I would like to touch on is this new craze about public betting , fading the blah , blah , blah , sharps and so on.

- You will NEVER know exactly what games books have positions or lopsided action on. You will NOT know the dollar amounts. You will NOT know what type of ML , teaser and parlay action is tied to a game which does INFLUENCE line movement. You may be able to see some irrational line movement that could clue you to a LINE being off. It really doesnt have as much to do with betting %s then knowing what a line should be ste at.

- Now obviously there are people who do this at a high level profesionally just like in the stock , bond and commodities market. There are also many traders in those fields who when they see public perception irrationally forming an opinion will fade and go the other way. There is NOTHING wrong with this mentality. There are alot of contrarian investing newsletter out there. What's wrong is the application of this mindset. You cannot be trying to figure out the consensus of every game and going opposite. You cannot believe that this is some sort of conspiracy to take your money. What it is to me is a challenging puzzle to decipher ( by this I mean picking winners longterm and winning longterm). So remember linesmakers do make mistakes. However those mistakes are RARELY going to be on high profile , heavily wagered events. Simply because if they are eventually they will be out of a job.

- So trust for the most part these guys know what they are doing. Learn how to predict lines. When "Your" line differs from the real line. Don't act !! Ask yourself why is my line different , what I am discounting , why have they adjusted up or down?? Treat it as if there is a piece of missing information you have overlooked. After this process if all avenues are covered then place your wager accordingly. If you are baffled pass and fight another battle!! I don't believe if you GUESS yo have a 50/50 shot mainly cause even when you guess some thought is affecting your decision one way or another and there is some rationalization involved. So it's never a pure guess.

- What I will say about fading public opinion is this. You have to be very selective but it can be profitable. More so it depends heavily in my opinion on LOGIC. Such as you seeing a line move 2 or 3 points and the reasoning behind it is the play can't lose. You want one sided action and one sided perception. When you see a Line move ask you why would someone be betting this way. In poker they say to look around the table and if you can't spot the dead money its probably you then. Well in this if you cannot come up with a logical and reasonable arguement for playing the opposite side you probably are a SQUARE in that instince.

- I saw some comments by Sammy here that were sound. First I disagreed with him on the TB situation. I felt a team with not much to gain and limted depth , having to travel cross country facing a team who had a sound defense and running game with a QB who looked like he could make a play or two as big chalk was a bad situation. Coupled with the fact that they were playing 3rd straight home and defensively had been very good. The Vikings game thanks to so many turnovers decided SF fate. A pick 6 to open thegame plus numerous SF turnovers in Minny territory made that final worse then it looked and then what they did to Cincy. What I did like especially was how he understood that they could price Indy low at home vs Houston due to the fear of resting players. Plus he factored the Texans shortcomings that seemed to be masked by playing at home. I didnt play Indy cause I did fear Houston on offense. If I read GMan's commenst I would have though cause he rationalized the game so well.

- In the Bowl games I think if you sit down and look logically at them there hasnt been much of a suprise. Utah is a very sound team but Navy's gimmick offense makes them tough 2 defend. If you look at Utah I see a very similiar all round team to Pitt. While Navy got lucky with the backdoor they have scored quickly via the pass a few times this season. Also remember when Navy played @ Rutgers?? If not for a few bad turnovers that would have been a much different game and possibly outcome.
--SoMiss overcoming the crappy end to the 1st H was suprising but where was the clear value in -11?? A team like SoMiss had health issues at Qb all season and the month of was perfect for Young to get healthy and in some sort of a groove. Really if you bypass Cincy's first four or so games what had they done when the competition got better? You have to take into account role most of the big wins Cincy had came as dogs...also Cincy was run on by WVU and Pitt while Fletcher is damn solid and closer to the guys who play in those programs..
---Sorry I saw ZERO reason to take Nevada. They had a young QB playing in what was a home game for NM. Fitzpatrick definetly made them somewhat dangerous as an underdog but catching 2.5 or 3 you should not view them as a dog cause they need to win. He faced some terrible defenses and weasnt all that impressive down the stretch. Remember the Boise game no one knows about this kid or what to expect and being 24 pt dogs can help you play loose. They barely won @ Utah State the follwoing week. They played Hawaii's 2nd string WB well and so on....no matter what wethough about UNM we knew they could play defense...
----I thought BYU would win cause as you said UCLA seemed to be in disarray but as you stated we dont knwo what happens to these teams in the month off. Thats why we need to look at these games as competitive exhibitions especially in the lower tier bowls. Anothert factor is the parity in CFB these days. There is probably a star player or two separating alot of these programs...Also more simply was BYU is not an explosive offense but a well balanced attack playing another sound defense in UCLA..because of that the margin of error for BYU was slim....

I think most people know I don't really say things like GOY , GOM , etc. However why do people concern themselves with these titles? I mean does a GOY heading literally mean the poster feels this is THEE Game Of the Year or Just one of the better plays he has come across in recent memory. Why do people sem to lose a heavy % of these plays? Go back to what I said about understanding a line. If you think a line is off and don't ask why chances are you will mislead yourself into a big play on a differential based primarily on your miscalcualation.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with trying to name a score . Everyone should be doing this to get a feel for there pay. I said soemwhere today I thought there was a good chance the Cle game landed on 179 but was unsure. It landed on 178 . I did not pull the 179 number out of my ass. I calculated the score based on Cle winning playing there type of game and though 91-88 seemed logically....no one will predict the exact scores but the range can be done....

The Mizzou / Illini game a PERFECT example of the perceived better team laying a small number. So the bettor says they only have to win to cover..terrible way to cap...you have to determine if the line is fair. If you come up with -1 and say its really no different then -3 then your playing into the linesmakers hands. Perfect example today was Suns @ lakers. Check some NBA threads and you will see I felt the line hsould be a PKem. I wondered would the betting pattern be the same if Suns were PK , -1.5 or -2.5 ??If so then I understood why they had jacked the line up to -2.5...

The CMU game @ Milwaukee. perfect example of capping soley on stats and not situational. Everyone bet on CMU as the line closed at -5....BAD SIGN! Then every talked about how Milw could not overcome the loss of there best player especially it was the second occurrence. Overlooked was the fact that new players would become more involved and that CMU was off a huge upset.

I think it's human nature to shy away from calling a big dog at +14 a GOY type. Simply cause on paper the paper looks clearly better and there has to be some reservation in your mind about playing the dog cause you know its the inferior team. When taking a favorite even subconsciously you know you are riding with the better team and as you said in a situation where it may just have to win to pay.

Great point about USC being professional. I think they are the only college team that brings that professional consistency . However injuries this year made that tough to do week in week out. Excellent point about teams with there backs to the wall , do they come out fighting or lay down? You just don;t know and that is what makes them dangerous and alot of the times this is when you hear the easy talk as well...there simply is no concrete way to know what to expect from a given team . You must BET LINES and SITUATIONS not EXPECTATIONS.

I do think Vegas mission is to get us to wager on bad lines that don't seem so bad. basically get you to play a team 2 pts higher then they should be. This is the puzzle that we most consistently solve....

Real man of Genius (Gman):

The only thing though that causes point spreads in the first place is betting habits by the public. The size fo the spread must be determined by team potentials. It is then compensated by public betting habits.

Once the oddsmaker has a real value for the spread and a team plays within those parameters consistently enough, he then can move that number to do two things. Adjust it for even action on the two teams, or move it in his favor when he knows by habits of the gambling masses, that he will win it with a large percentage of money and bets on the losing side.

Good story line that you wrote here, but its full of perception and thats what misleads many gamblers on most of the losses we have in the first place. Perception.

This is mostly a game of perception vs reality...When looking at Bowl games though we know motivation and travel are also factors to be heavily weighed.....


The Moral of this story is understand more then just the sports aspect of it. You can't look at past performances to accurately predict the future there are to many intangibles we cannot account for. I agree that VALUE is so overrated as a term in this industry. Books really aren't setting traps they are using your betting patterns against you since you dont adjust!! Please dont ever say this I LOST but I STILL HAD THE RIGHT SIDE. Thats exactly what the books depend on. You to be stubborn and continue amking the same mistake. :hang:

The NUT is back:bow::bow:

 

[Marlo]

This is one of the best things I have ever read related to sports gambling.

Thank you guys for your time spent on this.

 

[SportsNut]

Good stuff Sammy.

I think we are all in the same boat. We all have the same basic instincts when it comes to making a decision . There are so many games each day that you have to decipher alot of info in a short period of time. It's obviously become increasingly tougher for books to set lines as they are delayed IMO much longer then ever before. I think we have to remember and this sort of goes into the fading the betting public theory that has become so prevalent is that this is a long term process. Books have good weeks keeping very little % wise of their handle - its a grind for both sides . The problem I see is nowadays there is the mindless thinking that treats every game as such an indivual event , that the sportsbooks are looking to win your money and trick you in every single game played when really its about a winning week for them not game or day. There are going to be pros and cons on both sides so you just have to stick with what seems logically. Using the Suns example you still had a Laker team who was coming back from an East Coast trip. Not the greatest situation but getting value instead of playing an inflated line helps erase those concerns.

One thing I cannot harp on enough is thinking the losing play was the RIGHT PLAY. Folks when is being WRONG ever RIGHT? Trust me I have had this feeling at times but the older I get the more I have told myself go back and double check your logic. Then ask myself don't fool yourself into believing there were not doubts that concerned you. I am sure every once in a BLUE MOON there might be an occassion where the right play loses but it probably comes at the same clip your chances of winning the lottery are at.

Perfect example is the Heat @ Cavs yesterday. I made a small play on Miami which I lost. Now I did kick myself a few times cause there were warning signs. First is I think I was fairly accurate in feeling this line should be -3.5 possible 4. To see it open at 4.5 and 5 was a CAUTION sign because you have to ask why would they offe value on the moe obvious play?. To see Miami recently lose @ ATL as +2 dogs I asked myself if they couldnt win in ATL well how is Cle an easier task? Not to mention they were +1 @ home to Utah , while Utah is better then Cle you still talking about just a 4pt change in the line and having to play at Cle vs your home court. And if 2 was a FAIR # in ATL then since Cle while not showing it of late was a few pts stronger then 4.5 /5 made sense. Then we did have Cle more in need of a win. We did have a large pool of people who were looking at the recent play of both teams feeling like Cle had no chance..oh and Wade did have a shoulder issue from the Sat game...Maybe if I was a robot I could have deciphered all that info but it's not easy. Simply put there was some extra value in taking Miami @ +5 but I should have centered on why it was there when you had to feel like more money would come in on Miami...why , why , why?? Was this a TRAP? Not really but they did there job by getting me and others to make a "value" play when there simply was no real value.

When I was talking about " simulating' scores and things of that nature , I also meant it in the sense of understanding how a teams ROLE must com into your decision. For example some teams tend to always be underdogs how will they adjust to being a big favorite or vice versa ? How does a team perform as road chalk , etc...Just because a team is winning games by DDs as an underdog SHOULD NOT imply they can cover a DD spread. Its completely different situations. By simulating I think it helps alot with totals more then anything else. If you can get a round about of idea what a score might be it makes playing total easier. Like if you feel the over is a good play then you do some work and get a score of say 99-94 for a over 200 why would you play it?? Your basically coming up with a score of mid 190's so that would be a lightbulb moment in that hey it looks like a game that could go over but they have set the line to take away the value from that play..Books adjust when they NEED to when they are losing constantly on a particular bet. Thats why people never seem to understand why a team can win 10 straight in any sport and consistently be the UNDERDOG. They understand the betting patterns and know they can get away with doing it.

Just remember that while its extremely hard to set lines for week 17 the books while use your / our betting patterns to set lines. So keep that in mind when making decisions. Your right Dal and GB covered alot of big lines this year and that makes it comfortable for people to wager on these teams without thinking twice. I admit I took STL vs GB 2 weeks ago. Many did and that leaves a sour test in our mouth. So when we see GB again laying the big number its like they did last week why not here mentality. Though I will rarely lay big chalk on the road. Also College King Rex wasgreat at understanding the correaltion of totals and sides. For the Panthers to win ATS last week it really had to be a low scoring game. You would have to think Car doesnt score more then 17 points and there are better uses of this logic. But you can use it especially with UNDERDOGS in all sports to make wagers...dogs and overs..favs and unders is usually the pattern you work with...


With NE what happened? They covered every number for awhile. Human nature kept telling us oh thats to many. Until they made us comfortable in at least believing NE could cover huge numbers. Now what has happened ?? NE continually fails to cover the past month or so and the only time they did was vs the best team they faced ? That happens cause the previous failures to cover allows books to lower the line on NE w/o anyone realy noticing enough and w/o putting themselves at risk...granted this week was a cluster fuck with NE. However I will say that I played the 1st H cause you figured NE would rather play 1 half and then coast the rest of the way at this point in the season. Game 8 sure they might be calling plays up 35 with 90 seconds left but why get hurt at this time of year. Also Miami did down in Miami make the game somewht respectable in the 2nd H. So up 28-0 why would you every lay whatever it was on NE -7.5..?? All these type thing scan keep you from making plays that really you dont have any basis for. Ask yourself how is a game gonna playout? Truth is its only a guess but more times then not you will see you have an idea of what to expect....

One last thing I learned the hard way was there really is NOT much of need to worry about getting the BEST LINE. I think you should concentrate on getting the BEST CLOSING LINE with the LOWEST JUICE. The thing about playing openers is you lock yourself into a decision quickly and if you want to get out of it then it costs you some money or ties up your money till the contest is over. In certain spots there are key numbers we want but really for the most part if you want to lay -3 then laying -4 shouldnt be an issue if the play is going to win its going to have a little breathing room. If you dont believe take any week chart all the games and totals open vs close and see how many are actually affected by the line moves.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Truth is its only a guess but more times then not you will see you have an idea of what to expect.... posted by sportsnut

Sportsnut those are some excellent points you have made above. I found that betting is a very mental thing in that most people can pick winners but end up on the negative side in the wallet. Having experienced that myself I changed that in the last few years.

I wondered and questioned why I pick more winners but lose $. THe answer is simple, and what I did to correct it is simple. The first thing I had to do is figure out how I am losing(Sportnut said Betting pattern-Behavior) I figured out in which situations I am losing on, whether it be the same type of games ie road favorties, can't lose games, teams that are supposed to be dead, and I was chasing losses which was a sure way to lose $.

Sportnut is simple when there are so many games, so many lines, so many thoughts in people's heads about oh wait that's a public play, oh wait the line shifted 1 point, oh wait Vegas is tricking me here? This is what they want you to believe that they are tricking you, and I will tell you exactly how they are tricking you.

Portland was -2 at home to RAPTORS last week and a poster was saying that Vegas is making this line low so you will take Portland over the RAPS, he said they are begging for Portland action. I told him don't over analyze it and take portland as they will win. They did win, but here is how I believe they trap you. This poster was mentally convinced that Portland at -2 was a Sneaky Vegas trap, and if Toronto had won that game he would say see I knew it was a trap and I did not fall for it! He would be more convinced than ever that Vegas laid out a trap and he did not fall for it. Question: Did Vegas make any baskets? Was Vegas coaching the Raptors? What they have on us is coincidence, because the RAPS are an NBA team that is playing with 5 pretty good players vs the Blazers who are also playing with 5 good NBA players. Anyone can win this game, as it is played on a NBA hardcourt floor. The game is not played in a Las vegas Casino. Too many people don't actually concentrate on the actual game but concern themselves on what is going on in VEGAS, almost to the fact that they think VEGAS knows who will win every game?

There are no such things as TRAPS in sports betting, because I will ask everyone how can their be a trap when they offer you the option to bet both sides? A trap or a trick in life is when a person is railroaded or pursuaded into a situation which is not desirable for them. One could say that a rich guy FELL INTO THE TRAP of marrying a hot girl who only wanted his money? But this guy did fall into the trap because he did not have another option of another woman? He had the option to say NO, but fell into the Trap. IF VEGAS was offering one side on a game ex tonight CENT MICHIGAN +7, and you lose you could say it was a trap because you had no option to bet Purdue, but you can say screw it, I want PURDUE.

People call on Doctors to fix their health, dentists to fix their teeth, plumbers to fix their toilets, mechanics to fix their cars, and financial planners to plan their finances. I don't see how in sports betting where we spend a lot of time and money it would be any different? Who do we call to help us? What we do is we keep track , and as Sportnut said there is a winning betting behaviour of a successfull sports investor. It is as simple as that. Think about the rookie guy who always loses, chases losses, bets 15 games a night, that was probably us about 13 years ago? The thing that we want to do is basically have betting patterns and discipline that is completely opposite from the rookie guy and the losing guys.

In the past 10 months, the most losing days I have had in a row is 3, and that was this week with the BS UTAH, CINCY, backdoor covers. I was so pissed off, but I rebounded nicely on Sunday and Monday as I reduced my bets instead of increasing and chasing. In the past I would have chased and then lost for sure. I am striving for consistency, and believe with a lot of planning it can be done.

Also to add what Sportsnut said about the Heat it is true, that as a capper I know when my own plays will lose, and I have a good feeling about the ones that will win. Games that are on TV and you bet for the sake of it, or a Double Digit favorite that you bet out of principle, ex PURDUE tonight, its called UNDERDOG ANXIETY SYNDROME, a person would rather feel more comfortable losing on a favorite than a DOG. No one likes to see a team dancing in their endzone all day long.

After a while you know when all your ducks are aligned(all criteria is met for a bet) you feel good, if all the criteria is not met,those are the games you lose and the ones that are a GAMBLE. I like to say that I dont gamble on games but I invest or put money down on a probability that I have calculated to be favorable to me in the LONGRUN.