ATS and SU records history for conference title games

[TahoeLegend]

There's probably a lot more information available, but here is a short summary of how teams have fared SU and ATS in conference title games, The number on home underdogs--which only occur in G5 title games--surprised me

Power 5 conference championships
Overall: Favorites have been successful, with a 22-11 ATS record (66.7%) in neutral-site Power 5 conference title games since 1992.

Record: They have also won outright (SU) 27-6.

Double-digit favorites: Since 2008, double-digit favorites have a 16-7 ATS record (69.6%) and a 23-game SU winning streak.

Group of 5 conference championships
Overall: Group of 5 conference championship favorites have been even more successful ATS, with an 18-7-1 record (72%) on neutral sites since 1992 (the only neutral site G5 games this year is the MAC).

Spreads of 3+ points: Since 2000, Group of 5 favorites have gone 15-4-1 ATS on neutral sites when the point spread was 3 points or more.

Home underdogs in all college football conference championship games have performed very well against the spread (ATS), with a historical record of 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since 2009.

MAC underdogs have been particularly successful, covering at a rate of over 70% in recent years.

 

[TahoeLegend]

I took JMU and wanted to know the ATS record of G5 home favorites. Found some interesting numbers. Looks like I'm going to be pulling for this week to be one of the 31.6% games

Key betting trends for G5 home favorites ATS:
Large Favorites Struggle ATS: Historically, home favorites in conference title games that close as 7-point favorites or more are just 6-13 ATS (31.6%) since 1999.

Smaller Favorites Perform Well ATS: Conversely, hosts favored by less than 7 points have a strong ATS record of 15-8 (65.2%) in their last 23 tries.

Specific Conference Trends Vary: In the Sun Belt title game series, home teams are 4-2 ATS overall. In the Mountain West Championship, Boise State has a historical ATS record of just 3-5. This highlights the importance of analyzing specific conference and team trends.

Overall Home Team Performance: Across college football in general, oddsmakers set lines to achieve a 50% ATS rate, and overall home teams cover about 50.1% of the time over a five-year span, indicating no massive inherent edge for home teams ATS generally.

In summary, G5 home favorites are a strong bet for winning the game outright, but they are a risky bet ATS, particularly if they are heavy favorites (7 points or more). Smaller favorites tend to perform much better against the spread.