Hawks vs. Trail Blazers Top Picks for Monday: Hawks Will Thrive With or Without Young
Best Bet: Hawks +2.5 at -108 with Heritage
Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland
Injury News
The odds for tonight's game were slow to come out because Atlanta's star point guard, Trae Young, is injured.
He is officially listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game with right ankle soreness.
Young is by far his team's leading scorer -- he averages 27.2 points per game, whereas Atlanta's next-leading scorer averages 20.8 -- and his team's leading assist-getter -- he averages 9.9 assists per game, which are 2.8 or more per game more than any of his teammates.
Given the fact that Young might not play, you might think that Atlanta should be dogged by more points.
But we need to look at the examples we have of games in which Young did not play, in order to assess the impact of his absence.
My point is that Atlanta will win tonight's game even if Young does not play -- obviously, it would benefit Atlanta if he were to play.
Impressive Wins
Atlanta has just barely lost most of the games in which Young did not play.
This fact is trivially true. It is not reflective of any fact that Young is unbearably necessary to his team's success, because Atlanta is anyhow not a winning team -- the Hawks are 25-25 right now.
It is telling that Atlanta has scored impressive victories without its supposedly indispensable point guard.
On November 7, Young did not play a minute in his team's 117-98 victory over Milwaukee.
Likewise, on December 2, Young was absent when Atlanta beat another high-caliber squad, Denver.
Atlanta won that game 117-109.
The Hawks did lose their next three games without Young.
One such loss took place against a superior Brooklyn team.
But the Nets won by only a point, and they relied on free throw shooting percentage in order to win.
So, in terms of comparing number of wins versus number of losses, Atlanta without Young is similar in quality to Atlanta with Young.
Therefore, we benefit as bettors when Young is injured.
Far from being concerned about Young's absence, we should be excited about the potential betting value that his absence would create.
Most bettors are also NBA fans who think highly of Young.
They are thus inclined to assign exaggerated significance to his ability to play.
Key Player
This year's Atlanta team has two starting-caliber guards who are also high-usage guards.
With Young absent or hurt. look out for Dejounte Murray.
Atlanta's decision to acquire Murray was an eye-raiser.
People did not understand how he could coexist with Young in any positive way.
Their lack of understanding was reasonable especially if they were Hawk fans remembering Murray's performance in San Antonio's 136-121 defeat of Atlanta.
Murray gladly runs the show by himself, and this is what he can do if Young is absent today.
Murray will get others involved without turning the ball over, and he'll score by himself when he needs to.
The Matchup
Characteristically, Murray is known for his scoring ability inside, although he has improved in terms of his efficiency behind the arc.
As evident in his number of drives and shots at the basket last season, he is more inclined than Young to attack the basket.
It is thus relevant to know that Portland allows the fourth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Without Young, Atlanta would have the personnel to take advantage of Portland's feeble rim protection.
With Young, Atlanta would also have one of the NBA's top offensive players who can score inside, especially by operating off a ball-screen, pass, or pull up for a jumper anywhere on the court.
If you like the Hawk offense, then you have to like the whole team, because, as measured by defensive rating, this year's Hawk defense is improved relative to last year's, and it is superior to Portland's.
The Hawks become better defensively without Young, who lacks Murray's physical skill set on that end of the floor.
The Verdict
Expect Portland to be a live dog tonight.
Murray's ability to pick up the offensive slack created by Young's injury will ensure that Portland allows over 120 points for a fifth straight game.
Best Bet: Hawks +2.5 at -108 with Heritage
Atlanta Hawks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 10 p.m. ET at Moda Center in Portland
Injury News
The odds for tonight's game were slow to come out because Atlanta's star point guard, Trae Young, is injured.
He is officially listed as 'questionable' for tonight's game with right ankle soreness.
Young is by far his team's leading scorer -- he averages 27.2 points per game, whereas Atlanta's next-leading scorer averages 20.8 -- and his team's leading assist-getter -- he averages 9.9 assists per game, which are 2.8 or more per game more than any of his teammates.
Given the fact that Young might not play, you might think that Atlanta should be dogged by more points.
But we need to look at the examples we have of games in which Young did not play, in order to assess the impact of his absence.
My point is that Atlanta will win tonight's game even if Young does not play -- obviously, it would benefit Atlanta if he were to play.
Impressive Wins
Atlanta has just barely lost most of the games in which Young did not play.
This fact is trivially true. It is not reflective of any fact that Young is unbearably necessary to his team's success, because Atlanta is anyhow not a winning team -- the Hawks are 25-25 right now.
It is telling that Atlanta has scored impressive victories without its supposedly indispensable point guard.
On November 7, Young did not play a minute in his team's 117-98 victory over Milwaukee.
Likewise, on December 2, Young was absent when Atlanta beat another high-caliber squad, Denver.
Atlanta won that game 117-109.
The Hawks did lose their next three games without Young.
One such loss took place against a superior Brooklyn team.
But the Nets won by only a point, and they relied on free throw shooting percentage in order to win.
So, in terms of comparing number of wins versus number of losses, Atlanta without Young is similar in quality to Atlanta with Young.
Therefore, we benefit as bettors when Young is injured.
Far from being concerned about Young's absence, we should be excited about the potential betting value that his absence would create.
Most bettors are also NBA fans who think highly of Young.
They are thus inclined to assign exaggerated significance to his ability to play.
Key Player
This year's Atlanta team has two starting-caliber guards who are also high-usage guards.
With Young absent or hurt. look out for Dejounte Murray.
Atlanta's decision to acquire Murray was an eye-raiser.
People did not understand how he could coexist with Young in any positive way.
Their lack of understanding was reasonable especially if they were Hawk fans remembering Murray's performance in San Antonio's 136-121 defeat of Atlanta.
Murray gladly runs the show by himself, and this is what he can do if Young is absent today.
Murray will get others involved without turning the ball over, and he'll score by himself when he needs to.
The Matchup
Characteristically, Murray is known for his scoring ability inside, although he has improved in terms of his efficiency behind the arc.
As evident in his number of drives and shots at the basket last season, he is more inclined than Young to attack the basket.
It is thus relevant to know that Portland allows the fourth-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket.
Without Young, Atlanta would have the personnel to take advantage of Portland's feeble rim protection.
With Young, Atlanta would also have one of the NBA's top offensive players who can score inside, especially by operating off a ball-screen, pass, or pull up for a jumper anywhere on the court.
If you like the Hawk offense, then you have to like the whole team, because, as measured by defensive rating, this year's Hawk defense is improved relative to last year's, and it is superior to Portland's.
The Hawks become better defensively without Young, who lacks Murray's physical skill set on that end of the floor.
The Verdict
Expect Portland to be a live dog tonight.
Murray's ability to pick up the offensive slack created by Young's injury will ensure that Portland allows over 120 points for a fifth straight game.
