Hawks vs. Celtics NBA Picks for March 1
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Good Spot for Boston
Recency bias often leads bettors to attach excessive significance to a team's most recent results, such that they expect what they just saw to reoccur.
Following this psychological phenomenon, many bettors will likely look to fade the Celtics tonight because they just conceded 128 points to Indiana.
However, I suggest that this is a great spot for Boston tonight precisely because of its most recent debacle.
The Celtics have a prideful defense. Coach Udoka has preached defense before all else and, if you hear what the players say, you will find that they reinforce the extra importance that Udoka accords defense.
In a similar vein, their pride in defense is evident in their unique success in this area, which is partly a product of the added effort that they've invested in it.
After ranking 13th in defensive rating last year, they rank second in the category this year.
Plus, they've improved as the season has progressed, as I will discuss later.
Allowing so many points is rare for Boston, for which reason it ranks fourth in scoring defense as measured by points allowed.
So, after allowing Indiana to put up a ridiculous 128 on them, Celtic players will be extra focused tonight on defense.
Furthermore, Boston is looking to maintain its strong form. It has enjoyed a prolonged run of success that has sent it to sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings.
Bouncing back is extra important to the Celtics right now. Hence, they are 3-0 ATS after their last three SU losses.
Situationally, therefore, I love the Celtics tonight because this is a twofold bounce-back opportunity for them.
Pick-and-Roll Defense
Tonight, the most important aspect of defense for Boston will be its ball-screen defense.
Led by point guard Trae Young, Atlanta emphasizes the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type more than every other team besides Boston.
The Celtics match up well against Atlanta because they rank ninth-best at limiting PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
As part of Boston's unsmooth transition under its new head coach, its switch-heavy defense repeatedly made life easy for the opposing offense.
Communication is a particularly important part of switching. Defenders need to know which one of them will go high and which will go low. They need to know who will cover the cutter and who will remain at the elbow to contest the shooter. Celtic defenders would repeatedly miscommunicate in instances like these and others.
As one expects under a new coach, a good coach, these guys are figuring things out.
Since November, they have the best defensive rating in the NBA partly because their overall improvement encompasses their improvement against the ball-screen.
Now that they communicate more effectively, they are able to fully show off their personnel.
In the last meeting between Boston and Atlanta, Celtic bigs repeatedly limited Trae Young in isolation situations.
Al Horford made excellent stops as did Robert Williams and Grant Williams.
Like in the January 28 meeting between these teams, Trae Young suffered an awful field goal percentage partly because of Boston's bigs.
These bigs and the rest of Boston's defenders are in a great situation to stymy Trae Young again, which means that Atlanta's most important offensive player will fail to help his team out with an efficient output.
Boston Offense vs. Atlanta's Problematic Defense
The Hawk defense is one of the NBA's worst, ranking 26thin defensive rating.
But capping games obviously isn't reducible to comparing each team's defensive rating.
What is important to me is the success or struggles of each team's most important player and how this success or struggle is representative of each team's chances of success.
Whereas Trae Young will struggle against Boston's advanced ball-screen defense, Celtic star Jayson Tatum will thrive against Atlanta's awful defense.
The Hawks struggle to deal with opposing ball-handlers attacking in the direction of the basket.
Given this struggle, they are the worst team at limiting the opponent's field goal percentage within 10-14 feet of the basket.
Especially by utilzing screens, opposing ball-handlers enter this area and do what they want.
This is precisely a large part of Tatum's game. He runs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with 21.5 percent frequency.
He is well-known for keeping the ball on ball-screens and this is just what he can do against the Hawk defense.
Tatum is flexing his attacking skills, moreover, by, relative to last year, upping his attempts per game total within five feet of the basket.
He will start his attack from the perimeter where De'Andre Hunter is supposed to be Atlanta's top perimeter defender.
But beset by injuries and illness, Hunter is not his usual, explosive, and quick self.
His defensive rating is 8.4 points than it was last year.
The Verdict
Tatum, especially, will thrive off ball-screens and by attacking the basket against Atlanta's generally problematic defense and against the latter's defensive weakness at the point of attack and at the perimeter.
Meanwhile, Trae Young will not be able to rely on scoring off ball-screens, which he wants to do, because of Boston's strong and strongly improved ball-screen defense.
Plus, the situation is just right for a strong Celtic win and cover.
Best Bet: Celtics ATS (Odds TBA)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, March 1, 2022 at 7:30 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston
Good Spot for Boston
Recency bias often leads bettors to attach excessive significance to a team's most recent results, such that they expect what they just saw to reoccur.
Following this psychological phenomenon, many bettors will likely look to fade the Celtics tonight because they just conceded 128 points to Indiana.
However, I suggest that this is a great spot for Boston tonight precisely because of its most recent debacle.
The Celtics have a prideful defense. Coach Udoka has preached defense before all else and, if you hear what the players say, you will find that they reinforce the extra importance that Udoka accords defense.
In a similar vein, their pride in defense is evident in their unique success in this area, which is partly a product of the added effort that they've invested in it.
After ranking 13th in defensive rating last year, they rank second in the category this year.
Plus, they've improved as the season has progressed, as I will discuss later.
Allowing so many points is rare for Boston, for which reason it ranks fourth in scoring defense as measured by points allowed.
So, after allowing Indiana to put up a ridiculous 128 on them, Celtic players will be extra focused tonight on defense.
Furthermore, Boston is looking to maintain its strong form. It has enjoyed a prolonged run of success that has sent it to sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings.
Bouncing back is extra important to the Celtics right now. Hence, they are 3-0 ATS after their last three SU losses.
Situationally, therefore, I love the Celtics tonight because this is a twofold bounce-back opportunity for them.
Pick-and-Roll Defense
Tonight, the most important aspect of defense for Boston will be its ball-screen defense.
Led by point guard Trae Young, Atlanta emphasizes the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type more than every other team besides Boston.
The Celtics match up well against Atlanta because they rank ninth-best at limiting PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
As part of Boston's unsmooth transition under its new head coach, its switch-heavy defense repeatedly made life easy for the opposing offense.
Communication is a particularly important part of switching. Defenders need to know which one of them will go high and which will go low. They need to know who will cover the cutter and who will remain at the elbow to contest the shooter. Celtic defenders would repeatedly miscommunicate in instances like these and others.
As one expects under a new coach, a good coach, these guys are figuring things out.
Since November, they have the best defensive rating in the NBA partly because their overall improvement encompasses their improvement against the ball-screen.
Now that they communicate more effectively, they are able to fully show off their personnel.
In the last meeting between Boston and Atlanta, Celtic bigs repeatedly limited Trae Young in isolation situations.
Al Horford made excellent stops as did Robert Williams and Grant Williams.
Like in the January 28 meeting between these teams, Trae Young suffered an awful field goal percentage partly because of Boston's bigs.
These bigs and the rest of Boston's defenders are in a great situation to stymy Trae Young again, which means that Atlanta's most important offensive player will fail to help his team out with an efficient output.
Boston Offense vs. Atlanta's Problematic Defense
The Hawk defense is one of the NBA's worst, ranking 26thin defensive rating.
But capping games obviously isn't reducible to comparing each team's defensive rating.
What is important to me is the success or struggles of each team's most important player and how this success or struggle is representative of each team's chances of success.
Whereas Trae Young will struggle against Boston's advanced ball-screen defense, Celtic star Jayson Tatum will thrive against Atlanta's awful defense.
The Hawks struggle to deal with opposing ball-handlers attacking in the direction of the basket.
Given this struggle, they are the worst team at limiting the opponent's field goal percentage within 10-14 feet of the basket.
Especially by utilzing screens, opposing ball-handlers enter this area and do what they want.
This is precisely a large part of Tatum's game. He runs the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type with 21.5 percent frequency.
He is well-known for keeping the ball on ball-screens and this is just what he can do against the Hawk defense.
Tatum is flexing his attacking skills, moreover, by, relative to last year, upping his attempts per game total within five feet of the basket.
He will start his attack from the perimeter where De'Andre Hunter is supposed to be Atlanta's top perimeter defender.
But beset by injuries and illness, Hunter is not his usual, explosive, and quick self.
His defensive rating is 8.4 points than it was last year.
The Verdict
Tatum, especially, will thrive off ball-screens and by attacking the basket against Atlanta's generally problematic defense and against the latter's defensive weakness at the point of attack and at the perimeter.
Meanwhile, Trae Young will not be able to rely on scoring off ball-screens, which he wants to do, because of Boston's strong and strongly improved ball-screen defense.
Plus, the situation is just right for a strong Celtic win and cover.
Best Bet: Celtics ATS (Odds TBA)
