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Bats Will Stay Quiet In Monday's Braves-Twins Clash
Atlanta (66-46) at Minnesota (68-42)
When: 8:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: First-Five "Under"
Minnesota's Jose Berrios (10-5, 2.80 ERA) is in a great spot at home, where he's allowed one run or fewer in his last four starts. His home ERA is 2.10 compared to 3.31 on the road.
One might object that Berrios has benefited from facing many lower-quality lineups at home. But he's also thrived against the very best. When Boston visited Minnesota on June 17, he allowed one run in eight innings. When Houston did the same on May 2, he allowed two runs in seven innings. In other words, Berrios tends to rise to the ability of his opponent.
Berrios relies primarily on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches combine to compose 61 percent of his arsenal. They play well off each other. He likes to elevate his fastball and to induce a fly ball with it by getting the batter to swing underneath. He likes to follow that pitch with a curveball, which he keeps low, for instance placing it with 23.33 percent frequency in the lowest-right corner of the zone. Although, he likes just as much to proceed from his curveball to the fastball. His curveball also creates a change of pace because it averages 12.10 fewer mph than his fastball.
One reason why batters struggle against Berrios is because it's difficult to match-up well against him. He's about equally effective against both lefties and righties. He favors his curveball against the former, who bat .200 and have mustered only two extra-base hits against it. Facing righties, he loves his fastball, which they bat 192 against.
Berrios' versatility makes him dangerous against an Atlanta lineup that is anchored by big-name lefties like Freddie Freeman, but also boasts some higher-quality righties. These hitters will drive up the total set but then struggle against Berrios. They are at a disadvantage for having only seven total at-bats against him. The strong and particular movement of his pitches will be new to them.
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Atlanta's Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.37 ERA) is likewise in a great spot. Whereas he yields a 4.08 ERA at home, his road ERA is 1.20. Opponents hit .193 and slug .255 facing him outside of Atlanta. In 10 of his 11 road starts, he conceded one run or fewer. In the one exception the Mets scored two runs in 6.1 innings. While in terms of overall quality Soroka hasn't faced too many good lineups, he has dominated teams like Washington that rank among team leaders in terms of slugging against his favorite pitch.
Soroka relies primarily on his sinker. He throws it nearly half the time, which is good, because road opponents bat .215 and slug .273 against it. Hitters struggle against its combo of powerful glove-side movement and frequent borderline location. Because he also likes to keep his sinker at the batter's knees, it's by far his favorite ground-ball inducing pitch by percentage.
Especially because of his sinker, Soroka induces ground balls with 55.7 percent frequency. As a heavy ground ball pitcher, Soroka matches up excellently against the Twins, who bat .229 against ground ball pitchers compared to .292 against fly ball pitchers. Moreover, since the All-Star Break, the Twins rank 28th in slugging .281 against the sinker from righties. No Minnesota batter has faced Soroka and his sinker.
Bats Will Stay Quiet In Monday's Braves-Twins Clash
Atlanta (66-46) at Minnesota (68-42)
When: 8:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+)
MLB Pick: First-Five "Under"
Minnesota's Jose Berrios (10-5, 2.80 ERA) is in a great spot at home, where he's allowed one run or fewer in his last four starts. His home ERA is 2.10 compared to 3.31 on the road.
One might object that Berrios has benefited from facing many lower-quality lineups at home. But he's also thrived against the very best. When Boston visited Minnesota on June 17, he allowed one run in eight innings. When Houston did the same on May 2, he allowed two runs in seven innings. In other words, Berrios tends to rise to the ability of his opponent.
Berrios relies primarily on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches combine to compose 61 percent of his arsenal. They play well off each other. He likes to elevate his fastball and to induce a fly ball with it by getting the batter to swing underneath. He likes to follow that pitch with a curveball, which he keeps low, for instance placing it with 23.33 percent frequency in the lowest-right corner of the zone. Although, he likes just as much to proceed from his curveball to the fastball. His curveball also creates a change of pace because it averages 12.10 fewer mph than his fastball.
One reason why batters struggle against Berrios is because it's difficult to match-up well against him. He's about equally effective against both lefties and righties. He favors his curveball against the former, who bat .200 and have mustered only two extra-base hits against it. Facing righties, he loves his fastball, which they bat 192 against.
Berrios' versatility makes him dangerous against an Atlanta lineup that is anchored by big-name lefties like Freddie Freeman, but also boasts some higher-quality righties. These hitters will drive up the total set but then struggle against Berrios. They are at a disadvantage for having only seven total at-bats against him. The strong and particular movement of his pitches will be new to them.
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Atlanta's Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.37 ERA) is likewise in a great spot. Whereas he yields a 4.08 ERA at home, his road ERA is 1.20. Opponents hit .193 and slug .255 facing him outside of Atlanta. In 10 of his 11 road starts, he conceded one run or fewer. In the one exception the Mets scored two runs in 6.1 innings. While in terms of overall quality Soroka hasn't faced too many good lineups, he has dominated teams like Washington that rank among team leaders in terms of slugging against his favorite pitch.
Soroka relies primarily on his sinker. He throws it nearly half the time, which is good, because road opponents bat .215 and slug .273 against it. Hitters struggle against its combo of powerful glove-side movement and frequent borderline location. Because he also likes to keep his sinker at the batter's knees, it's by far his favorite ground-ball inducing pitch by percentage.
Especially because of his sinker, Soroka induces ground balls with 55.7 percent frequency. As a heavy ground ball pitcher, Soroka matches up excellently against the Twins, who bat .229 against ground ball pitchers compared to .292 against fly ball pitchers. Moreover, since the All-Star Break, the Twins rank 28th in slugging .281 against the sinker from righties. No Minnesota batter has faced Soroka and his sinker.
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