MLB Parlay for May 31: A Bet That Pays (+420)
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Is Starting for Atlanta?
Today's Brave starter, Charlie Morton, is not remotely close to being the pitcher that he was last year.
Whereas his ERA was 3.34 last season, it is currently 5.28 this season.
His strikeout rate is vastly lower, and he is walking way more batters while allowing more home runs per game.
He has typically been a pitcher who effectively induces ground balls.
This year, Morton is inducing ground balls with only 35 percent frequency because opponents are more consistently elevating his pitches.
How Does Morton Match Up With Arizona?
Primarily, Morton throws a curveball and fastball.
These pitches make up just over 70 percent of his arsenal.
He is ineffective with both of these pitches. Opponents are batting over .280 against each pitch.
His curveball is most vulnerable. Opponents are slugging .492 against this pitch.
Morton seems especially unlikely to turn things around today because his career ERA is 5.06 in six starts in Arizona.
This career ERA indicates that, even in years when he was a much better pitcher than he is now, he struggled in the Diamondbacks' venue.
Look out especially for David Peralta and Ketel Marte. Both are slugging well over .700 in at least seven career at-bats against Morton.
Who Is Pitching for Arizona?
Arizona starts Humberto Castellanos today.
Castellanos is one of three Arizona starters who is yielding plus units.
He has been particularly successful when he is dogged in which situation he is yielding +1.6 units so far.
What Pitches Does Castellanos Throw?
Primarily, Castellanos throws a sinker, slider, and curveball.
These are the three pitches that he throws with over 20 percent frequency.
Together, they make up about 80 percent of his arsenal.
Castellanos promises to thrive tonight because the Braves rank 24thin slugging .335 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Pitches for Houston?
Today's starter for Houston, Cristian Javier, is coming off a nice pair of starts because he got to pitch in his home venue where he has been solid.
Javier will be homesick tonight because he is pitching in Oakland where he has been awful.
In his career, Javier is 0-2 with a 6.20 ERA in five appearances and four starts in the Athletics' venue.
Plenty of Oakland batters have accrued a strong track record against Javier.
Five different ones slug over .570 in at least five career at-bats against Javier and three different ones slug over .850 in at least as many at-bats against him.
Ramon Laureano, for example, is 4-for-12 with a triple and two home runs when facing Javier.
Who Pitches for Oakland?
Frankie Montas pitches for the Athletics tonight.
Besides an injury-induced hiccup two starts ago, Montas has been a model of consistency, lasting six innings or more in four straight starts.
Pertinently to tonight's game, Montas has been stellar against division rivals.
He has faced the Angels and Rangers twice, allowing no more than two earned runs in at least six innings against these teams.
Moreover, he has allowed a sub-two FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three of his last four starts.
Montas' strong form has persisted even against teams that match up better against him, in terms of slugging rate against his pitches, than the Astros do.
His persistent success must be unsurprising given, among other things, his solid ability to locate his favorite pitches.
He ably keeps his split finger low in the zone, precisely hits the edges of the strike zone consistently with his sinker, and superbly distributes the location of his fastball among different parts of the zone.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks ML at +143 & Athletics ML at +114 at +420 odds with BetOnline
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix
Who Is Starting for Atlanta?
Today's Brave starter, Charlie Morton, is not remotely close to being the pitcher that he was last year.
Whereas his ERA was 3.34 last season, it is currently 5.28 this season.
His strikeout rate is vastly lower, and he is walking way more batters while allowing more home runs per game.
He has typically been a pitcher who effectively induces ground balls.
This year, Morton is inducing ground balls with only 35 percent frequency because opponents are more consistently elevating his pitches.
How Does Morton Match Up With Arizona?
Primarily, Morton throws a curveball and fastball.
These pitches make up just over 70 percent of his arsenal.
He is ineffective with both of these pitches. Opponents are batting over .280 against each pitch.
His curveball is most vulnerable. Opponents are slugging .492 against this pitch.
Morton seems especially unlikely to turn things around today because his career ERA is 5.06 in six starts in Arizona.
This career ERA indicates that, even in years when he was a much better pitcher than he is now, he struggled in the Diamondbacks' venue.
Look out especially for David Peralta and Ketel Marte. Both are slugging well over .700 in at least seven career at-bats against Morton.
Who Is Pitching for Arizona?
Arizona starts Humberto Castellanos today.
Castellanos is one of three Arizona starters who is yielding plus units.
He has been particularly successful when he is dogged in which situation he is yielding +1.6 units so far.
What Pitches Does Castellanos Throw?
Primarily, Castellanos throws a sinker, slider, and curveball.
These are the three pitches that he throws with over 20 percent frequency.
Together, they make up about 80 percent of his arsenal.
Castellanos promises to thrive tonight because the Braves rank 24thin slugging .335 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics
Tuesday, May 31, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at Oakland Coliseum in Oakland
Who Pitches for Houston?
Today's starter for Houston, Cristian Javier, is coming off a nice pair of starts because he got to pitch in his home venue where he has been solid.
Javier will be homesick tonight because he is pitching in Oakland where he has been awful.
In his career, Javier is 0-2 with a 6.20 ERA in five appearances and four starts in the Athletics' venue.
Plenty of Oakland batters have accrued a strong track record against Javier.
Five different ones slug over .570 in at least five career at-bats against Javier and three different ones slug over .850 in at least as many at-bats against him.
Ramon Laureano, for example, is 4-for-12 with a triple and two home runs when facing Javier.
Who Pitches for Oakland?
Frankie Montas pitches for the Athletics tonight.
Besides an injury-induced hiccup two starts ago, Montas has been a model of consistency, lasting six innings or more in four straight starts.
Pertinently to tonight's game, Montas has been stellar against division rivals.
He has faced the Angels and Rangers twice, allowing no more than two earned runs in at least six innings against these teams.
Moreover, he has allowed a sub-two FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in three of his last four starts.
Montas' strong form has persisted even against teams that match up better against him, in terms of slugging rate against his pitches, than the Astros do.
His persistent success must be unsurprising given, among other things, his solid ability to locate his favorite pitches.
He ably keeps his split finger low in the zone, precisely hits the edges of the strike zone consistently with his sinker, and superbly distributes the location of his fastball among different parts of the zone.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks ML at +143 & Athletics ML at +114 at +420 odds with BetOnline
