Los Angeles Baseball Gang Will Be too Tough for Oakland on Wednesday
Oakland hosts Los Angeles on Wednesday at 10:05 ET on the MLB Network. Oakland will have to reckon with one of the best pitchers of all time, LA’s Clayton Kershaw.
Dodgers at Athletics
MLB Pick: Dodgers
LA’s Clayton Kershaw seems to have had a shockingly unsteady season. But this impression merely derives from navigating both the sensationalistic remarks by media „experts“ and reality. The „experts“ have—albeit correctly—talked about the significant velocity drop of his fastball, the drop of his slider’s whiff percentage and his lower overall strikeout rate, and the fact that he’s walking the most batters per nine innings that he has since 2013. He was also a betting nightmare, losing four of his first five decisions, which is why he’s still yielding negative betting units. Kershaw’s slump was not an individual slump—he didn’t allow more than two runs until his fifth start—but a team slump. Despite everything and despite all the rumors about his fading star, Kershaw is 5-5 with a 2.55 ERA, substantiated by a 3.13 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck). He’s allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. The Dodgers are 5-1 in his last six starts, yielding +3.4 units. He won four of them.
Kershaw relies on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up 80% of his arsenal. He also mixes in a curveball with 17 percent frequency. Kershaw leans heavily on his first-ptich fastball. Opponents are ready for it and they slug it well. The key to Kershaw’s success is his .207 opposing BA with runners in scoring position. In that situation, he starkly reduces his first-pitch fastball usage in order to become less predictable. He often starts batters off with his slider, which is typically a two-strike pitch. The similar first-pitch frequency between both pitches is more meaningful because they share similar horizontal and vertical release points, which confuses the batter as to which pitch is leaving his hand. He throws his slider very hard and with a high amount of spin that makes it hard for batters to track and make contact with it. Moreover, he amps up his two-strike curveball usage, which is his favorite whiff pitch. His curveball is elusive with its strong vertical movement and he consistently places it low in the zone. It averages 18 fewer mph than his fastball and its velocity differential throws hitters off balance.
Oakland ranks 20th in slugging against Kershaw’s three favorite pitches from lefties. It’s struggling lately against left-handed starters, producing five runs combined against its last five. In 53 career at-bats, the A’s are batting .113 and have zero homers against Kershaw. Khris Davis is 1-for-11 against him.
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After recently being dealt by Detroit, Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.48 ERA) makes his first start for Oakland and his first start since exiting his last one after two innings due to a shin contusion.
Fiers relies on a variety of pitches with between 12 and 33 percent frequency. His velocity is poor—his fastball, for instance, doesn’t even average 90 mph. He tries to make up for lack of velocity by sequencing his variety of pitches well to stay unpredictable and letting the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches intersect in order to deceive the batter.
His favorite and most frequent pitch is the fastball. He relies it most in all scenarios. It evinces decisive betting significance because he needs it to start ahead of the count, work his way from being behind in counts, and finish batters off. In the last three starts in which he’s yielded an ERA of 4.50 or higher, his opponent achieved a slugging rate of at least .500 against his fastball. The Dodgers rank eighth in slugging against the fastball from righties.
The Dodgers were just embarrassed at home by the Astros. Since becoming an above-.500 team in May, they’ve consistently bounced back after a tough series, going undefeated in their last three series after losing the prior series, and achieving a winning week.
Oakland hosts Los Angeles on Wednesday at 10:05 ET on the MLB Network. Oakland will have to reckon with one of the best pitchers of all time, LA’s Clayton Kershaw.
Dodgers at Athletics
MLB Pick: Dodgers
LA’s Clayton Kershaw seems to have had a shockingly unsteady season. But this impression merely derives from navigating both the sensationalistic remarks by media „experts“ and reality. The „experts“ have—albeit correctly—talked about the significant velocity drop of his fastball, the drop of his slider’s whiff percentage and his lower overall strikeout rate, and the fact that he’s walking the most batters per nine innings that he has since 2013. He was also a betting nightmare, losing four of his first five decisions, which is why he’s still yielding negative betting units. Kershaw’s slump was not an individual slump—he didn’t allow more than two runs until his fifth start—but a team slump. Despite everything and despite all the rumors about his fading star, Kershaw is 5-5 with a 2.55 ERA, substantiated by a 3.13 FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck). He’s allowed two runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. The Dodgers are 5-1 in his last six starts, yielding +3.4 units. He won four of them.
Kershaw relies on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches make up 80% of his arsenal. He also mixes in a curveball with 17 percent frequency. Kershaw leans heavily on his first-ptich fastball. Opponents are ready for it and they slug it well. The key to Kershaw’s success is his .207 opposing BA with runners in scoring position. In that situation, he starkly reduces his first-pitch fastball usage in order to become less predictable. He often starts batters off with his slider, which is typically a two-strike pitch. The similar first-pitch frequency between both pitches is more meaningful because they share similar horizontal and vertical release points, which confuses the batter as to which pitch is leaving his hand. He throws his slider very hard and with a high amount of spin that makes it hard for batters to track and make contact with it. Moreover, he amps up his two-strike curveball usage, which is his favorite whiff pitch. His curveball is elusive with its strong vertical movement and he consistently places it low in the zone. It averages 18 fewer mph than his fastball and its velocity differential throws hitters off balance.
Oakland ranks 20th in slugging against Kershaw’s three favorite pitches from lefties. It’s struggling lately against left-handed starters, producing five runs combined against its last five. In 53 career at-bats, the A’s are batting .113 and have zero homers against Kershaw. Khris Davis is 1-for-11 against him.
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After recently being dealt by Detroit, Mike Fiers (7-6, 3.48 ERA) makes his first start for Oakland and his first start since exiting his last one after two innings due to a shin contusion.
Fiers relies on a variety of pitches with between 12 and 33 percent frequency. His velocity is poor—his fastball, for instance, doesn’t even average 90 mph. He tries to make up for lack of velocity by sequencing his variety of pitches well to stay unpredictable and letting the vertical and horizontal release points of his pitches intersect in order to deceive the batter.
His favorite and most frequent pitch is the fastball. He relies it most in all scenarios. It evinces decisive betting significance because he needs it to start ahead of the count, work his way from being behind in counts, and finish batters off. In the last three starts in which he’s yielded an ERA of 4.50 or higher, his opponent achieved a slugging rate of at least .500 against his fastball. The Dodgers rank eighth in slugging against the fastball from righties.
The Dodgers were just embarrassed at home by the Astros. Since becoming an above-.500 team in May, they’ve consistently bounced back after a tough series, going undefeated in their last three series after losing the prior series, and achieving a winning week.
