Bet This MLB Parlay at (+267) on Wednesday
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for Oakland?
Oakland starts James Kaprielian today.
On the season, Kaprielian has been a strong "over" pitcher.
However, this season-long tendency is eroding in his most reason starts.
Specifically, the "under" is 3-2 in his last five starts.
In the two "overs," Oakland scored seven and 14 runs, respectively.
As I will explain, it is extremely unlikely that Oakland approaches such a high run total today.
Kaprielian's Form
Besides Oakland's normally weak hitting -- the A's rank second-to-last in runs per game -- Kaprielian's positive consistency largely explains why the "under" has been more likely to hit in his recent starts.
Kaprielian's ERA is terrible right now because ERA is a season-long statistic, and it reflects his poor quality in June and May and two terrible starts that he suffered in these months.
However, one must consider his most recent starts in order to see that his current form is obscured by this season-long statistic, ERA.
Most recently, he has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his past five starts.
He is allowing fewer home runs and conceding fewer walks.
His improved command is also apparent in the enhanced rate at which he starts batters off with a strike.
Statistically, a pitcher is vastly more likely to succeed in a given at-bat when he starts a batter off 0-1.
Moreover, Kaprielian's stuff is much better.
In each of his last three starts, he has induced batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate that far exceeds his season average.
Especially, his fastball has improved.
Opponents are hitting this pitch less often than they had been more and, likewise, are whiffing at it at a higher rate.
This pitch improvement is essential because the fastball is by far Kaprielian's most frequent pitch.
Kaprielian vs. Angel Batters
Tonight, Kaprielian seems particularly likely to succeed given his solid history against the Angels.
In his career, he is 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA in three starts against them.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Los Angeles starts Shohei Ohtani tonight.
Despite repeatedly starting in games with lower-than-usual posted totals, Ohtani is more of an "under" pitcher this year.
Overall, the "under" is hitting in 56.3 percent of his starts.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, the "under" is hitting in 66.7 percent of his starts at home.
Ohtani's Outlook Tonight
Ohtani is such a strong "under" pitcher at home because he is at his best in his home venue.
This year, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 1.94 at home compared to 2.87 on the road.
His form is anyhow terrific in general.
He has allowed a combined total of 10 earned runs in his last eight starts.
Six of those allowed earned runs came in a single road start.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for Los Angeles?
Tonight, Julio Urias starts for Los Angeles.
Urias is a very strong "under" pitcher.
The "under" is hitting in 76.5 percent of his starts overall.
Moreover, it is hitting in 81.8 percent of his road starts and in 75 percent of his starts against division rivals.
Urias' Outlook Tonight
In his last three starts, the "under" is 3-0 largely because of his great form.
He has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in those three starts while lasting at least six innings in them.
His outlook is also promising because of his great history in San Francisco's venue.
In seven career starts here, his ERA is 2.93.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
San Francisco starts the ever-reliable Alex Cobb.
Cobb allowed one earned run or fewer in two of his last three starts.
While the one exception came against the Dodgers, his 2.06 FIP in that start reflects how well he actually performed individually.
In that start, he yielded an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite avoiding a lot of hard contact.
Best Bet: A's/Angels Under 7 at -120 & Dodgers/Giants Under 7.5 at +100 at +267 odds with BetOnline
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim
Who Starts for Oakland?
Oakland starts James Kaprielian today.
On the season, Kaprielian has been a strong "over" pitcher.
However, this season-long tendency is eroding in his most reason starts.
Specifically, the "under" is 3-2 in his last five starts.
In the two "overs," Oakland scored seven and 14 runs, respectively.
As I will explain, it is extremely unlikely that Oakland approaches such a high run total today.
Kaprielian's Form
Besides Oakland's normally weak hitting -- the A's rank second-to-last in runs per game -- Kaprielian's positive consistency largely explains why the "under" has been more likely to hit in his recent starts.
Kaprielian's ERA is terrible right now because ERA is a season-long statistic, and it reflects his poor quality in June and May and two terrible starts that he suffered in these months.
However, one must consider his most recent starts in order to see that his current form is obscured by this season-long statistic, ERA.
Most recently, he has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his past five starts.
He is allowing fewer home runs and conceding fewer walks.
His improved command is also apparent in the enhanced rate at which he starts batters off with a strike.
Statistically, a pitcher is vastly more likely to succeed in a given at-bat when he starts a batter off 0-1.
Moreover, Kaprielian's stuff is much better.
In each of his last three starts, he has induced batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate that far exceeds his season average.
Especially, his fastball has improved.
Opponents are hitting this pitch less often than they had been more and, likewise, are whiffing at it at a higher rate.
This pitch improvement is essential because the fastball is by far Kaprielian's most frequent pitch.
Kaprielian vs. Angel Batters
Tonight, Kaprielian seems particularly likely to succeed given his solid history against the Angels.
In his career, he is 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA in three starts against them.
Who Starts for the Angels?
Los Angeles starts Shohei Ohtani tonight.
Despite repeatedly starting in games with lower-than-usual posted totals, Ohtani is more of an "under" pitcher this year.
Overall, the "under" is hitting in 56.3 percent of his starts.
Pertinently to my favorite play for this game, the "under" is hitting in 66.7 percent of his starts at home.
Ohtani's Outlook Tonight
Ohtani is such a strong "under" pitcher at home because he is at his best in his home venue.
This year, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 1.94 at home compared to 2.87 on the road.
His form is anyhow terrific in general.
He has allowed a combined total of 10 earned runs in his last eight starts.
Six of those allowed earned runs came in a single road start.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at 9:45 p.m. ET at Oracle Park in San Francisco
Who Starts for Los Angeles?
Tonight, Julio Urias starts for Los Angeles.
Urias is a very strong "under" pitcher.
The "under" is hitting in 76.5 percent of his starts overall.
Moreover, it is hitting in 81.8 percent of his road starts and in 75 percent of his starts against division rivals.
Urias' Outlook Tonight
In his last three starts, the "under" is 3-0 largely because of his great form.
He has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in those three starts while lasting at least six innings in them.
His outlook is also promising because of his great history in San Francisco's venue.
In seven career starts here, his ERA is 2.93.
Who Starts for San Francisco?
San Francisco starts the ever-reliable Alex Cobb.
Cobb allowed one earned run or fewer in two of his last three starts.
While the one exception came against the Dodgers, his 2.06 FIP in that start reflects how well he actually performed individually.
In that start, he yielded an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite avoiding a lot of hard contact.
Best Bet: A's/Angels Under 7 at -120 & Dodgers/Giants Under 7.5 at +100 at +267 odds with BetOnline
