A couple thoughts on the big game in Eugene...
Regardless of what the standings say USC is still the premiere team to beat in the PAC 10. Despite their troubles this year, the biggest game of the year for every team is still the game against SC. Call it revenge, call it what you want, but beating SC is bigger than beating anyone else in the conference.
Oregon is coming off that type of win last week with a BIG win over SC. The Ducks were able to capitalize on an improving defense getting 4 big turnovers. The Ducks showed they could sustain drives and run the ball with great success against the SC defense littered with Day 1 NFL picks. Oregon's offense leads the conference in almost every statistical catagory including the conferences leading rusher in Jon Stewart (130yds/gm). The one weakness however is their WR's. Oregon is focused on the run, but I'm not convinced Oregon's WR's are 100% healthy or they are good enough to attack the ASU secondary consistently.
The Duck defenses weakness is they're going to give up yards in big chunks through the air. They are improving, but it is their weakness. They have shown to be stingy at times this year (Michigan 7, Wazzou 7, SC 17), BUT they've relied a bit on a mentality that they're just going to outscore the opponent giving up points (Houston 27, Fresno 21, Stanford 31, Cal 31, Washington 34) and now they're facing the best offense they've seen all year. If you are going to give up 30+ to ASU, good luck.
Rudy Carpenter is fine. He can make all the throws and as long as he doesn't reinjure that thumb ASU is going to have more than a fighting chance. Ryan Torain's absense is going to be felt in a game like this. Dimitri Nance and Keegan Herring did a fantastic job against CAL last week gaining 190+ yards on the ground and Carpenter was his usual self, starting of brutally slow, but really turning it on by about the midpoint of the 2H. It's going to be scary if ASU is ever "on" from the first gun. I LOVED Erickson's approach last week against Cal. ASU came out on the first series in a 5 wide spread and had Cal completely confused with 2 LB's on WR's. If not for a false start, ASU would've been off to the races. I asked one of my sources what the rationale was and they said "the coaches knew it would throw Cal off and we were hoping for a big play or a timeout, but they're also trying to get Rudy off to a faster start". Part of that slow start against Cal was also do to horrific officiating. It was by far the worst crew the PAC 10 could've put together. Cal got ahead on the defensive TD after the ref blew a clear facemask call that would've given ASU a 1D, but instead casued the fumble and return. Then there was the inadvertant whistle on the punt return that resulted in Cal retaining the ball instead of 1st and goal ASU. Not only did they jump the gun on the whistle, but the reviewed a play that can't be reviewed! They reversed their decision after the booth said there was an inadvertant whistle, YOU CAN'T REVIEW THAT!!! Anyway...
The ASU defense is for real and I hope people are finally starting to realize that. They are fast and they have the best defense in the conference and I'm going to say they're faster than SC. Nate Longshore, the best QB they've faced this year, didn't do anything. His two picks were awful and were a result of constant pressure from the ASU DL. ASU didn't register a lot of sacks, but they had the knockdowns and on both of Longshores picks, he was under pressure and short armed the ball. His second he had DeSean Jackson open by 7 yards and threw it 10-12 yards short because of the rush.
Justin Forcett is the 2nd leading rusher in the PAC and he was a non factor. Stewart is a different type of back, but I'd be surprised if he broke 100 yards for the game.
ASU offense Vs. Oregon defense
This is going to be a great game. Oregon gives up yards and ASU scores a lot. Oregon has the best RZ defense, while ASU has the best RZ offense. Herring and Nance proved to a lot of people they can gain yards on the ground. Oregon's defense is statistically worse than Cal's and is ranked 7th overall in the conference. ASU is not going to change the game plan greatly from what they've done to get here and what they did to beat Cal last week. Balance, balance, balance. One way or the other the ground game will get established, whether it's by dink and dump, or of Oregon decides to focus on the pass they'll run it down their throats.
Oregon is going to put a lot of pressure on Carpenter, but I know for a fact the ASU OL is focusing on protecting Carpenter this week. Rudy takes a lot of pride in efficiencey and completion %, but he's not going to risk taking a big hit to that thumb as opposed to throwing it away.
The Oregon secondary is fast, but Erickso's style has been to dink and dump teams to sleep and then look for the long ball. If Herring and Nance have the success against Oregon that they did against Cal, WATCH OUT!
ASU Defense Vs. Oregon Offense
Nobody has yet to truly slow down Dennis Dixon and Jon Stewart, but if there was a team to do it, it's ASU. ASU has had a lot of success in Eugene and I also know ASU DC Craig Brey has talked with former DC Bill Miller (under Koetter) about things they did to slow down Oregon (well not last year, but the year before). SC's defense kept Dixon in check for the most part last week and ASU is faster. not in the secondary, but the front 7 is faster and better right now than anyone in the conference and anyone Dixon and Stewart will have seen so far.
ASU isn't going to get the sacks and big losses like other teams, but what they're going to do is make opposing offenses think. ASU is going to lay the wood on you and if it costs them 15 yards, they'll take a few of those. Dixon and Stewart are going to get smacked and if you're an offesive player knowing you're going to get smacked at the end of a play that hurts you, just ask Cal if those hits add up.
Dixon is going to attack ASU frosh DB Omar Bolden, but you can't do that the entire game. Bolden had single coverage for much o the Cal game and although he gave up a lot of receptions, he didn't give up the big play. ASU has faced the top 2 WR's in the conference in Jackson and Gibson from Wazzou and controlled them. Oregon doesn't have anyone even close to them.
Special Teams
Punt returning - Kyle Williams has the edge
Kick returning - Stewart hasthe edge
Kickers - ASU has the edge
Coaching
I can officially say I've drank and gone back for 2nds on the Dennis Erickson koolaid. What this guy has done to this team is incredible. I love his philosophy he's taken with this team. Let's simplify things and let our guys excell at what they are capable of doing. Koetter's biggest probelm on O and D was he had multiple schemes and looks and the teams never got really good at anyone of them except passing. Erickson's approach is let's be awsome at a few things as opposed to average on a lot of things. This has transformed ASU into a fast and efficient team.
Mike Belotti is a good coach but I give the edge to ASU. Erickson isn't going to be overwhelmed walking into Autzen Stadium and his calm approach is going to definately reflects onto the team.
Misc. Notes
Rudy Carpenter's thumb - if Danny Sullivan has to play...let's not go there. I've talked with Rudy and the thumb thing is blown out of proportion, but still.
TOP - ASU is #1 in TOP and if they can control the clock, they control the game (I know, earthshattering insight). But the more ASU's O is on the field the better it will be.
@ Autzen - You're going to think I'm crazy, but I think this helps ASU that the game is on the road. ASU is not intimidated to play in Autzen. As you should know by now, Carpenter "struggles" at times to keep his emotions down. Last week it was clear he was too jacked up at Homecoming. The team was too jacked up, how many times do you see a guy leading a team out of the locker room fall at about the 35 running between the band, high comedy, but Carpenter's emotions are better on the road than at home. Add to that ASU is 8-6 all time at Autzen and I likey.
1Q - ASU can't give up free points to Oregon simple as that. Cal was lucky they put up 20 last week, Oregon is going to score, but if they score early, ASU has to answer. A 13-0 lead by Oregon will spell disaster for ASU because that means they aren't moving the ball or controlling the clock.
Prediction
Whoever wins this game has a legit chance to win out and play in the national title game. I like the PAC 10 champion's chances a lot better than BC having to play in the BE title game or Oklahoma in the B12 title game.
ASU made a statement last week against Cal and now's there chance to solidify themselves in the eyes of the critics. Oregon wins and they are probably in line for the national title game like I said.
BUT, Dixon will have to be flawless against ASU much like Carpenter will have to be as well.
Some teams just have the others number, and there's a little of that here. ASU can play severly limit the Oregon offense and Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart and I'm not sold Oregon can slow down ASU's offense. Oregon will have some let down after beating SC. I don't feel ASU will have a let down because they've been preparing for this part of the schedule the first 6 games of the year. Everyone is jumping on Oregon, people are still not sold on ASU and the Sun Devils are still playing with a little chip on their shoulders. They know they still have something to prove and nothing to lose this week. If they win, they're winning out and winning the conferenve, but if they lose, everyone expected them to lose. What do you have to lose if everyone thinks you're going to lose?
There were times under Koetter the team was so focused it was scary and then they'd go lay a turd. It's much loser here now, but this team is focused and has answered the call everytime this year. I love the attitude this week and I love ASU in this spot getting a TD. I'm not saying that because they're my team, but if there's a team I'd like to play in this spot it'd be Oregon.
ASU 27
Oregon 24
Ramblins I know, BOL this week and Go Devils!
rooting for them
