Rays vs Astros: ALDS Game 1 MLB Picks and Predictions
Rays vs Astros
Friday, October 4 2019 at 2:05 p.m. ET (FS1) at Minute Maid Park
Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) makes his first ever playoff experience. While he had a statistically strong regular season, he was also bereft of experience against playoff teams.
He faced teams that missed the playoffs in 10 of his 12 appearances. The two exceptions were the Yankees and Astros and he yielded a 0.96 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) against an injury-ridden Yankee lineup and a 4.81 FIP against Houston. Both opponents had to face Glasnow in Tampa Bay.
For all the positivity in Glasnow’s development, his youth shows in his dependence on a single pitch. Glasnow throws his fastball 67 percent of the time. This pitch doesn’t have much movement and Glasnow isn’t often adept at locating it away from the middle of the plate. Instead, velocity is its greatest asset as this pitch averages 97 mph.
Unsurprisingly, Glasnow essentially lives and dies in a given outing with the success of this pitch. In his two battles with future playoff teams, Houston hit .273 against this pitch and the Yankees, who produced Glasnow’s highest opposing run total in a game this season, hit .300 against it.
I like Astro batters today because, in the second half of the season, they ranked first in slugging against the fastball from righties. They also ranked second in slugging against the 95-99 mph fastball from righties, thus indicating their ability to do well against Glasnow’s heater.
They also accrued strong numbers against Glasnow, albeit in a limited number of at-bats. In 31 tries, Houston batters hit .290 and slug .581 against Glasnow. Alex Bregman and Aledmys Diaz each have hit a homer off him.
The Astros counter with Justin Verlander, (21-6, 2.58 ERA) who managed to be a profitable pitcher this season despite the ridiculous chalk that bettors are often dared to lay with him. He yielded +3.4 units overall. Relevant for today, the bulk of his profitability derived from his daytime success. In day games, the Astros were 9-2 when Verlander started, yielding +7.4 units.
Also important for today, Verlander has a mental edge against Glasnow because he boasts the playoff experience that Glasnow lacks. Verlander’s postseason ERA is 3.19.
Verlander enters today’s game in strong form, yielding a sub-three FIP in six of his past seven starts. He mostly throws a serviceable 94-95 mph fastball.
But the slider is arguably his most important pitch as he amps up its usage in crunch time. When runners enter scoring position, he throws it four percent more often against lefties and 13 percent more often against righties than when runners are not in scoring position.
His reliance on the slider is smart because opponents bat .119 against it. Its hard, its movement is tight, and he’s not afraid to throw a higher rate of strikes than balls with it, while over 42 percent of its strikes land in the two lowest-right spots of the zone.
Tampa Bay batters are among Verlander’s many victims. They’ve accrued 113 collective at-bats against him, but have only hit one home run. Overall, they bat .221 and slug .301 and have 13 more strikeouts (38) than hits (25). Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe, Jesus Aguilar, and Ji-Man Choi are all hitless with one walk to 13 strikeouts combined.
One argument gets made in favor of Tampa Bay: the Rays should supposedly have an advantage for being more battle-tested, while Houston had to sit on the sidelines for longer. But the Verlander-led Astros have not conceded any indication that its time off were problematic. In 2017, and 2018, they enjoyed clear game 1 victories by a combined score of 15-4 against Cleveland and Boston. They won both first halves by a combined 9-2 result.
Best Bet: Astros First-Half RL (-.5) at -130 odds with 5Dimes
Rays vs Astros
Friday, October 4 2019 at 2:05 p.m. ET (FS1) at Minute Maid Park
Tampa Bay’s Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) makes his first ever playoff experience. While he had a statistically strong regular season, he was also bereft of experience against playoff teams.
He faced teams that missed the playoffs in 10 of his 12 appearances. The two exceptions were the Yankees and Astros and he yielded a 0.96 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) against an injury-ridden Yankee lineup and a 4.81 FIP against Houston. Both opponents had to face Glasnow in Tampa Bay.
For all the positivity in Glasnow’s development, his youth shows in his dependence on a single pitch. Glasnow throws his fastball 67 percent of the time. This pitch doesn’t have much movement and Glasnow isn’t often adept at locating it away from the middle of the plate. Instead, velocity is its greatest asset as this pitch averages 97 mph.
Unsurprisingly, Glasnow essentially lives and dies in a given outing with the success of this pitch. In his two battles with future playoff teams, Houston hit .273 against this pitch and the Yankees, who produced Glasnow’s highest opposing run total in a game this season, hit .300 against it.
I like Astro batters today because, in the second half of the season, they ranked first in slugging against the fastball from righties. They also ranked second in slugging against the 95-99 mph fastball from righties, thus indicating their ability to do well against Glasnow’s heater.
They also accrued strong numbers against Glasnow, albeit in a limited number of at-bats. In 31 tries, Houston batters hit .290 and slug .581 against Glasnow. Alex Bregman and Aledmys Diaz each have hit a homer off him.
The Astros counter with Justin Verlander, (21-6, 2.58 ERA) who managed to be a profitable pitcher this season despite the ridiculous chalk that bettors are often dared to lay with him. He yielded +3.4 units overall. Relevant for today, the bulk of his profitability derived from his daytime success. In day games, the Astros were 9-2 when Verlander started, yielding +7.4 units.
Also important for today, Verlander has a mental edge against Glasnow because he boasts the playoff experience that Glasnow lacks. Verlander’s postseason ERA is 3.19.
Verlander enters today’s game in strong form, yielding a sub-three FIP in six of his past seven starts. He mostly throws a serviceable 94-95 mph fastball.
But the slider is arguably his most important pitch as he amps up its usage in crunch time. When runners enter scoring position, he throws it four percent more often against lefties and 13 percent more often against righties than when runners are not in scoring position.
His reliance on the slider is smart because opponents bat .119 against it. Its hard, its movement is tight, and he’s not afraid to throw a higher rate of strikes than balls with it, while over 42 percent of its strikes land in the two lowest-right spots of the zone.
Tampa Bay batters are among Verlander’s many victims. They’ve accrued 113 collective at-bats against him, but have only hit one home run. Overall, they bat .221 and slug .301 and have 13 more strikeouts (38) than hits (25). Mike Zunino, Brandon Lowe, Jesus Aguilar, and Ji-Man Choi are all hitless with one walk to 13 strikeouts combined.
One argument gets made in favor of Tampa Bay: the Rays should supposedly have an advantage for being more battle-tested, while Houston had to sit on the sidelines for longer. But the Verlander-led Astros have not conceded any indication that its time off were problematic. In 2017, and 2018, they enjoyed clear game 1 victories by a combined score of 15-4 against Cleveland and Boston. They won both first halves by a combined 9-2 result.
Best Bet: Astros First-Half RL (-.5) at -130 odds with 5Dimes
