MLB World Series Price and Series Props
Scrutinizing The Odds
The most biased Philly backer on the planet knew that Philadelphia was going to be the underdog to win the World Series.
For all of Philly's recent successes, the Astros won 19 more regular season games and remain undefeated in postseason play.
They are, predictably, heavily favored across sportsbooks to win the series.
Predictable is one thing, but is it justified that Houston is favored so heavily?
Regular Season Success: Who Cares?
Regular season success simply doesn't matter right now -- just ask the Braves, who won the NL East but lost in four games to Philadelphia.
Postseason play favors teams with top-heavy pitching.
Whereas the Phillies' starting rotation quality drops off after its top three starters and whereas they rely heavily on a few relievers, Houston is vastly deeper.
During the regular season, Philadelphia could not sustain what it is doing now, relying on its few high-quality pitchers -- this reliance explains the steep improvement in its bullpen ERA.
The Phillies are vastly more successful in postseason play than during the regular season because of the relative brevity of postseason play, which allows them to get away with lacking Houston's pitching depth.
Postseason Resumes
I don't think what Houston in the postseason has done up until now is all that impressive.
The Astros beat Mariner and Yankee squads that struggled over large segments of the second half of the season even against lesser teams.
Largely thanks to substantial hitting woes, New York finished 35-34 in the second half of the regular season.
As for the Mariners, they lost series to the White Sox, Angels, A's, and Royals in September alone.
Meanwhile, there is no way to discredit Philadelphia's defeat of the NL East champion Braves.
It's significant to note that the Phillies' postseason resume is stronger than Houston's because it emphasizes the unimportance of regular season records at this point in the season and it further undercuts the notion that the Astros should be favored so heavily to win the series.
Series Games Handicap
The Astros' being favored so heavily has allowed for the possible excellent betting opportunity to exist: Phillies +1.5 at -145 (at Bovada).
Philadelphia can lose the series by a game and still win this bet.
Houston's Top Starters
Starting pitching favors Philadelphia in this series.
For Houston, Justin Verlander is heavily reliant on throwing four-seam fastballs, which the Phillies are slugging .485 against in this postseason.
Framber Valdez, who seems likely to start Game 2, might seem to be just the pitcher that Houston needs in the sense that Philadelphia is one of the best home run-hitting teams, but he excels at keeping balls on the ground.
In terms of BA and slugging rate, though, Philadelphia has hit ground ball pitchers better than fly ball pitchers.
Plus, Valdez is a lefty, and the Phillies have one of the highest slugging rates against left-handed pitching.
Philadelphia's Top Starters
In these first two games, Philly will start Aaron Nola who had a perfect game intact in the seventh inning in Houston's ballpark.
Nola is also coming off a terrible start, and he repeatedly shuts out or limits his opponent to one run in his following start -- he has bounced back in this way in his last six starts following one in which he allowed four or more runs.
Ace Zack Wheeler carries a 1.78 postseason ERA into this game while relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, which Houston has struggled to hit this postseason.
Even if Philadelphia were to lose Games 3 and 4 -- Ranger Suarez's second-half and postseason form notwithstanding -- it hands the baton back to Nola/Wheeler to win our bet.
Best Bet: Phillies +1.5 at -145 with Bovada
Given the above information, I also recommend betting on:Series Leader After 3 Games
Best Bet: Phillies at +135 with Bovada
Player to Record Most Total Bases in the Series
No hitter appears hotter and more formidable right now than Bryce Harper.
So far this postseason, Harper is hitting .419 and slugging .907.
He especially appears likely to record the most total bases as Houston's Yordan Alvarez continues his lackluster play since his tremendous performance against Seattle.
Alvarez has three hits in his last five games.
Alex Bregman might seem like another threat to Harper, but Bregman is batting .188 in World Series play, and thus seems primed to cool off in tandem with the slumping Jose Altuve.
Kyle Tucker, moreover, has all of one extra-base hit in this postseason.
Harper with his clutch hitting and his big-time power seems to me to be attractively priced.
Best Bet: Bryce Harper at +900 with Bovada
Given the preceding information, I also recommend betting on Series Total Bases - Alex Bregman v Bryce Harper.
Best Bet: Harper at -110 with Bovada
Scrutinizing The Odds
The most biased Philly backer on the planet knew that Philadelphia was going to be the underdog to win the World Series.
For all of Philly's recent successes, the Astros won 19 more regular season games and remain undefeated in postseason play.
They are, predictably, heavily favored across sportsbooks to win the series.
Predictable is one thing, but is it justified that Houston is favored so heavily?
Regular Season Success: Who Cares?
Regular season success simply doesn't matter right now -- just ask the Braves, who won the NL East but lost in four games to Philadelphia.
Postseason play favors teams with top-heavy pitching.
Whereas the Phillies' starting rotation quality drops off after its top three starters and whereas they rely heavily on a few relievers, Houston is vastly deeper.
During the regular season, Philadelphia could not sustain what it is doing now, relying on its few high-quality pitchers -- this reliance explains the steep improvement in its bullpen ERA.
The Phillies are vastly more successful in postseason play than during the regular season because of the relative brevity of postseason play, which allows them to get away with lacking Houston's pitching depth.
Postseason Resumes
I don't think what Houston in the postseason has done up until now is all that impressive.
The Astros beat Mariner and Yankee squads that struggled over large segments of the second half of the season even against lesser teams.
Largely thanks to substantial hitting woes, New York finished 35-34 in the second half of the regular season.
As for the Mariners, they lost series to the White Sox, Angels, A's, and Royals in September alone.
Meanwhile, there is no way to discredit Philadelphia's defeat of the NL East champion Braves.
It's significant to note that the Phillies' postseason resume is stronger than Houston's because it emphasizes the unimportance of regular season records at this point in the season and it further undercuts the notion that the Astros should be favored so heavily to win the series.
Series Games Handicap
The Astros' being favored so heavily has allowed for the possible excellent betting opportunity to exist: Phillies +1.5 at -145 (at Bovada).
Philadelphia can lose the series by a game and still win this bet.
Houston's Top Starters
Starting pitching favors Philadelphia in this series.
For Houston, Justin Verlander is heavily reliant on throwing four-seam fastballs, which the Phillies are slugging .485 against in this postseason.
Framber Valdez, who seems likely to start Game 2, might seem to be just the pitcher that Houston needs in the sense that Philadelphia is one of the best home run-hitting teams, but he excels at keeping balls on the ground.
In terms of BA and slugging rate, though, Philadelphia has hit ground ball pitchers better than fly ball pitchers.
Plus, Valdez is a lefty, and the Phillies have one of the highest slugging rates against left-handed pitching.
Philadelphia's Top Starters
In these first two games, Philly will start Aaron Nola who had a perfect game intact in the seventh inning in Houston's ballpark.
Nola is also coming off a terrible start, and he repeatedly shuts out or limits his opponent to one run in his following start -- he has bounced back in this way in his last six starts following one in which he allowed four or more runs.
Ace Zack Wheeler carries a 1.78 postseason ERA into this game while relying heavily on his four-seam fastball, which Houston has struggled to hit this postseason.
Even if Philadelphia were to lose Games 3 and 4 -- Ranger Suarez's second-half and postseason form notwithstanding -- it hands the baton back to Nola/Wheeler to win our bet.
Best Bet: Phillies +1.5 at -145 with Bovada
Given the above information, I also recommend betting on:Series Leader After 3 Games
Best Bet: Phillies at +135 with Bovada
Player to Record Most Total Bases in the Series
No hitter appears hotter and more formidable right now than Bryce Harper.
So far this postseason, Harper is hitting .419 and slugging .907.
He especially appears likely to record the most total bases as Houston's Yordan Alvarez continues his lackluster play since his tremendous performance against Seattle.
Alvarez has three hits in his last five games.
Alex Bregman might seem like another threat to Harper, but Bregman is batting .188 in World Series play, and thus seems primed to cool off in tandem with the slumping Jose Altuve.
Kyle Tucker, moreover, has all of one extra-base hit in this postseason.
Harper with his clutch hitting and his big-time power seems to me to be attractively priced.
Best Bet: Bryce Harper at +900 with Bovada
Given the preceding information, I also recommend betting on Series Total Bases - Alex Bregman v Bryce Harper.
Best Bet: Harper at -110 with Bovada
