Astros vs. Mariners Game 3 ALDS Betting Preview for Saturday
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 4:07 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts Lance McCullers Jr.
With his year essentially having begun on August 13, McCullers is making his ninth start of the season,
While his ERA looks super impressive, it masks a vastly less impressive 3.49 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
He has benefitted from an unsustainably high 88-percent strand rate.
There is just no way that he'll continue managing to strand these many runners.
Soft Competition
McCullers Jr. has also benefitted from soft competition.
Four of his eight games came against a team that ranks bottom-six in averaging fewer than four runs per game.
His performance against the two top-10 lineups that he faced, Philadelphia and Atlanta, help suggests what his numbers would be like if he had faced stiffer competition more often.
His FIP was 4.11 against Philadelphia and 5.11 against Atlanta.
Mariner Batters' Outlook
It is tempting to suggest that Seattle is a soft test for any pitcher.
But remember that the Mariners play at least half their games in a uniquely pitchers-friendly ballpark.
Away from home, they average 4.65 runs per game.
If this were a season-long, overall statistic, then they would rank seventh in runs per game.
The Mariners match up well against Houston's pitcher, ranking 10th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Tonight, look out especially for Ty France.
France is 6-for-12 with two doubles in his career against McCullers Jr.
Who Starts for Seattle?
George Kirby starts for Seattle on Saturday.
Kirby's 3.39 ERA masks a 2.99 FIP, which reflects how well he is truly performing.
Kirby During the Day
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, Kirby is especially profitable during the day.
Whereas the Mariners are 9-7 when he starts at night, they are 7-2 when he starts during the day.
His superior ability during the day to limit runs and opposing slugging obviously contributes to this disparity.
Kirby's Preferred Competition Level
While Kirby has suffered a couple bad starts, lately, his form can hardly justify pessimism about his chances today.
He has limited five of his last eight opponents to one run or fewer.
It may seem like the fact that Kirby's last bad starts came against low-quality teams should count more strongly against him.
But, oddly, it shouldn't.
To explain, he regularly thrives not against non-playoff teams but against playoff teams.
His worst games, throughout the year, have come against non-playoff teams like Baltimore.
In six starts against playoff teams, he allowed no more than two runs.
Moreover, his FIP was under 2.00 in five of those games.
Astro Batters' Outlook
After getting to play two games in their small ballpark, Houston batters will have trouble adjusting to Seattle.
Their regular season slugging rate was .363 in Seattle -- to compare, Seattle's was .380 at home.
Facing Kirby only adds to the problem: Kirby achieved a 1.11 FIP against them in his one start against them, which took place on July 31
Kirby's Pitching Repertoire
Kirby is a tough pitcher to hit.
He invests a unique level of balance in his arsenal through the variety that characterizes his pitch selection.
Primarily, he throws his fastball, which averages just over 95 mph.
This pitch selection is intelligent because his fastball is his best pitch -- opponents slug .345 against it.
But he also throws five different pitches between eight and 14 percent of the time , which explains the wide contrasts in velocity and fly or ground balls that opposing batters experience when they face him.
Kirby's Command
The fact that Kirby walks 1.52 batters per nine innings is impressive.
Kirby's walk rate is this low despite his proclivity, as heat maps show, to work the borders of the strike zone.
His ability to throw strikes while targeting spaces that are only narrowly going to be called strikes illustrates the strength of his command.
Best Bet: Mariners ML at -105 with BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, October 15, 2022 at 4:07 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Who Starts for Houston?
Houston starts Lance McCullers Jr.
With his year essentially having begun on August 13, McCullers is making his ninth start of the season,
While his ERA looks super impressive, it masks a vastly less impressive 3.49 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding).
He has benefitted from an unsustainably high 88-percent strand rate.
There is just no way that he'll continue managing to strand these many runners.
Soft Competition
McCullers Jr. has also benefitted from soft competition.
Four of his eight games came against a team that ranks bottom-six in averaging fewer than four runs per game.
His performance against the two top-10 lineups that he faced, Philadelphia and Atlanta, help suggests what his numbers would be like if he had faced stiffer competition more often.
His FIP was 4.11 against Philadelphia and 5.11 against Atlanta.
Mariner Batters' Outlook
It is tempting to suggest that Seattle is a soft test for any pitcher.
But remember that the Mariners play at least half their games in a uniquely pitchers-friendly ballpark.
Away from home, they average 4.65 runs per game.
If this were a season-long, overall statistic, then they would rank seventh in runs per game.
The Mariners match up well against Houston's pitcher, ranking 10th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Tonight, look out especially for Ty France.
France is 6-for-12 with two doubles in his career against McCullers Jr.
Who Starts for Seattle?
George Kirby starts for Seattle on Saturday.
Kirby's 3.39 ERA masks a 2.99 FIP, which reflects how well he is truly performing.
Kirby During the Day
Pertinently to my Best Bet for this game, Kirby is especially profitable during the day.
Whereas the Mariners are 9-7 when he starts at night, they are 7-2 when he starts during the day.
His superior ability during the day to limit runs and opposing slugging obviously contributes to this disparity.
Kirby's Preferred Competition Level
While Kirby has suffered a couple bad starts, lately, his form can hardly justify pessimism about his chances today.
He has limited five of his last eight opponents to one run or fewer.
It may seem like the fact that Kirby's last bad starts came against low-quality teams should count more strongly against him.
But, oddly, it shouldn't.
To explain, he regularly thrives not against non-playoff teams but against playoff teams.
His worst games, throughout the year, have come against non-playoff teams like Baltimore.
In six starts against playoff teams, he allowed no more than two runs.
Moreover, his FIP was under 2.00 in five of those games.
Astro Batters' Outlook
After getting to play two games in their small ballpark, Houston batters will have trouble adjusting to Seattle.
Their regular season slugging rate was .363 in Seattle -- to compare, Seattle's was .380 at home.
Facing Kirby only adds to the problem: Kirby achieved a 1.11 FIP against them in his one start against them, which took place on July 31
Kirby's Pitching Repertoire
Kirby is a tough pitcher to hit.
He invests a unique level of balance in his arsenal through the variety that characterizes his pitch selection.
Primarily, he throws his fastball, which averages just over 95 mph.
This pitch selection is intelligent because his fastball is his best pitch -- opponents slug .345 against it.
But he also throws five different pitches between eight and 14 percent of the time , which explains the wide contrasts in velocity and fly or ground balls that opposing batters experience when they face him.
Kirby's Command
The fact that Kirby walks 1.52 batters per nine innings is impressive.
Kirby's walk rate is this low despite his proclivity, as heat maps show, to work the borders of the strike zone.
His ability to throw strikes while targeting spaces that are only narrowly going to be called strikes illustrates the strength of his command.
Best Bet: Mariners ML at -105 with BetOnline
