Strong Starting Pitching Will Keep San Francisco and Houston Lineups In Check
The Astros entertain the Giants in a two-game series that begins tonight at 8:10 ET. The Giants could pull off a major upset by limiting Houston’s scoring. But bettors should expect Houston’s starting pitcher to perform at least as well.
San Francisco Giants (24-24) at Houston Astros (30-18)
MLB Pick: 1H „Under“
Gerrit Cole (4-1, 1.75 ERA) is yielding an ERA 2.51 lower than last year. Cole is inducing over four strikeouts per nine innings while surrendering fewer walks and homers. From 2014 to 2017, hitters were progressively improving against his fastball. Last season, Cole was forced to reduce its usage due to its high opposing slugging percentage. Cole’s improvement largely derives from his comfort with again throwing the fastball 50% of the time. Opponents are slugging .196 against it. He’s elevated his vertical release point in order to better utilize gravity and create more top-down movement. Despite the improved vertical movement of his fastball, he’s locating it more frequently up in the strike zone. Last season, there was only one spot in the top two rows of the zone where he threw his fastball more than 6% of the time. This season there are four such spots. Consequently, his fastball has become a reliable fly ball pitch. His slider is his favorite pitch with two strikes. This year, it is sliding much more and he is leaving it less frequently in the middle of the plate but locating it more frequently in the lowest corners of the strike zone, which makes it difficult for hitters to lay off it but also difficult for them to make contact with it.
Reborn as a fly ball pitcher, Cole’s chief task is to keep fly balls from becoming home runs. Look for him to buckle down after his last outing. In the respective games after allowing a homer in the previous outing, Cole has allowed a combined zero earned runs in 14 innings.
In their career, opposing Giants are batting .203 and slugging .297 against Cole. While Brandon Belt has been insanely hot, his BA is .95 lower in night games and all five of his hitless performances in May came in night games.
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Rookie Andrew Suarez (1-3, 4.88 ERA) counters for San Fran. Suarez shows strong command—he’s allowed fewer than two walks in four of his five outings— and promising pitch quality. Scouting reports indicate that his fastball is a liability. Nonetheless, his strongest performance came against one of the top fastball-hitting teams, Atlanta. The Astros, like the Braves, are, based on the metric BA-xBA, statistically one of the most overachieving teams against the fastball, especially in their home venue, and are due to regress.
Suarez’s high ERA masks his 3.24 xFIP which indicates where his ERA should be based purely on his individual pitching performance, meaning independent of defense and based on average home run per fly ball ratio. In his past two starts, he has dropped his opposing hard contact rate by over ten percent from the average of his previous three starts by reducing his fastball usage and developing his breaking pitches-- his sinker, curve, slider and change. Despite the increased usage of the latter four pitches, he has reduced the combined opposing slugging percentage against them by .144 in these past two games. His key tonight will be to figure out which pitches work best and to sequence them in order to prevent hitters from sitting on his fastball.
Houston hitters are in a tough spot. They average less than two runs per first five innings in their five games after a rest day. In seven home games against southpaw starters, they’ve managed combined 11 runs in the first five innings (1.57 runs per first five innings). This struggle is representative of their slow start overall at home where their BA is .46 lower than on the road. Plus, they’re metrically overachieving tremendously in slugging with RISP at home and so are due for regression in bringing home batters.
The Astros entertain the Giants in a two-game series that begins tonight at 8:10 ET. The Giants could pull off a major upset by limiting Houston’s scoring. But bettors should expect Houston’s starting pitcher to perform at least as well.
San Francisco Giants (24-24) at Houston Astros (30-18)
MLB Pick: 1H „Under“
Gerrit Cole (4-1, 1.75 ERA) is yielding an ERA 2.51 lower than last year. Cole is inducing over four strikeouts per nine innings while surrendering fewer walks and homers. From 2014 to 2017, hitters were progressively improving against his fastball. Last season, Cole was forced to reduce its usage due to its high opposing slugging percentage. Cole’s improvement largely derives from his comfort with again throwing the fastball 50% of the time. Opponents are slugging .196 against it. He’s elevated his vertical release point in order to better utilize gravity and create more top-down movement. Despite the improved vertical movement of his fastball, he’s locating it more frequently up in the strike zone. Last season, there was only one spot in the top two rows of the zone where he threw his fastball more than 6% of the time. This season there are four such spots. Consequently, his fastball has become a reliable fly ball pitch. His slider is his favorite pitch with two strikes. This year, it is sliding much more and he is leaving it less frequently in the middle of the plate but locating it more frequently in the lowest corners of the strike zone, which makes it difficult for hitters to lay off it but also difficult for them to make contact with it.
Reborn as a fly ball pitcher, Cole’s chief task is to keep fly balls from becoming home runs. Look for him to buckle down after his last outing. In the respective games after allowing a homer in the previous outing, Cole has allowed a combined zero earned runs in 14 innings.
In their career, opposing Giants are batting .203 and slugging .297 against Cole. While Brandon Belt has been insanely hot, his BA is .95 lower in night games and all five of his hitless performances in May came in night games.
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Rookie Andrew Suarez (1-3, 4.88 ERA) counters for San Fran. Suarez shows strong command—he’s allowed fewer than two walks in four of his five outings— and promising pitch quality. Scouting reports indicate that his fastball is a liability. Nonetheless, his strongest performance came against one of the top fastball-hitting teams, Atlanta. The Astros, like the Braves, are, based on the metric BA-xBA, statistically one of the most overachieving teams against the fastball, especially in their home venue, and are due to regress.
Suarez’s high ERA masks his 3.24 xFIP which indicates where his ERA should be based purely on his individual pitching performance, meaning independent of defense and based on average home run per fly ball ratio. In his past two starts, he has dropped his opposing hard contact rate by over ten percent from the average of his previous three starts by reducing his fastball usage and developing his breaking pitches-- his sinker, curve, slider and change. Despite the increased usage of the latter four pitches, he has reduced the combined opposing slugging percentage against them by .144 in these past two games. His key tonight will be to figure out which pitches work best and to sequence them in order to prevent hitters from sitting on his fastball.
Houston hitters are in a tough spot. They average less than two runs per first five innings in their five games after a rest day. In seven home games against southpaw starters, they’ve managed combined 11 runs in the first five innings (1.57 runs per first five innings). This struggle is representative of their slow start overall at home where their BA is .46 lower than on the road. Plus, they’re metrically overachieving tremendously in slugging with RISP at home and so are due for regression in bringing home batters.
