Astros vs. Athletics: MLB Best Bets
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics
Wednesday, September 9, 2020 at 9:10 p.m. ET in Oakland Coliseum
Jesus Luzardo
Oakland’s Jesus Luzardo (2-2, 4.23 ERA) makes his seventh start of the season.
Luzardo primarily relies on his sinker. When facing either a same-handed (meaning left-handed) batter or a right-handed batter, he throws this pitch 38 percent of the time.
His primary aim with this pitch is to generate ground balls. Relative to the average sinker, he gives his sinker a strong amount of horizontal break.
So the idea is that batters swing on top of this moving sinker thus hitting the pitch into the ground.
Ideally, a pitcher emphasizes with his sinker the lower parts of the strike zone.
But pitching charts show that Luzardo strongly concentrates his sinker in the more middle parts of the zone.
Its poor location largely explains why batters slug .463 when he throws this pitch.
Luzardo is a lefty. When he faces righties, he wants to emphasize his off-speed stuff in order to keep them off-balance.
Hence, his change-up is easily his second-favorite pitch to offer a right-handed batter.
His change-up has the advantage of lower location in addition to strong horizontal movement.
But this pitch remains unspectacular. Its low spin rate creates less deceptiveness in its location.
Moreover, its velocity differential relative to his fastball (8.3 mph) is ordinary.
For these reasons, righties manage to hit .273 against it.
Luzardo vs. Astro Batters
Luzardo is at least promising because he is trying to develop a change-up with which to attack opposite handed-batters. This pitch as well as some other minor features help him remain decent against weaker lineups.
His best games have come against teams — like the Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Angels -- that rank in the bottom 10 against left-handed pitchers.
In contrast, his worst games — against Colorado, San Diego, and San Francisco — foregrounded opponents that rank top-11 against southpaws.
I like Houston today because it ranks eighth against southpaws. Match-up wise, it is thus akin to the Rockies, etc., rather than to the Diamondbacks, etc.
Look out for Carlos Correa who is owning lefties with a .359 BA.
Luis Garcia’s First Career Start
Because Lance McCullers is injured, Luis Garcia (0-0, 2.08 ERA) will make his second career professional appearance and his first ever Major League start.
Don’t be fooled by Garcia’s surface stats because he’s hardly pitched. Garcia’s first game performance masks a 5.49 xERA (expected ERA).
xERA accounts for the amount and quality of contact that batters are making with a pitcher’s offerings in order to reconstruct a more honest assessment of a pitcher’s performance.
His xERA makes more sense when you understand that Garcia is starting today purely out of necessity and not by choice.
Garcia’s role assessment has been the subject of some controversy.
Houston clearly thinks that he can be a starter. Although his first appearance was out of the bullpen, he’s been groomed to become a starter.
A lot of scouts think, however, that he belongs in the bullpen. They cite his arm action, which is very short, and his complicated, not-so-smooth delivery.
Garcia Breakdown
Young pitchers work on cultivating greater pitch variety as their professional career progresses.
Garcia clearly isn’t there yet. His favorite pitch is his fastball and he throws it 62 percent of the time.
Scouting reports insist that he enjoys strong command with this pitch. Perhaps he’s been skittish on an MLB mound as he seems to be trying to nibble along the borders of the strike zone. Right now, 36.59 percent of his fastballs are balls.
There seems to be good reason for his plate-nibbling proclivity. When his fastball landed in the more middle parts of the plate, Angels batters did a tremendous job of generating a high average exit velocity.
Because of them, his fastball is yielding a .667 slugging rate.
Obviously, Garcia’s difficulties with what is clearly his favorite pitch is alarming. This is especially true when you consider that the Angels are the second-worst team in slugging against the fastball from righties.
Garcia vs. Oakland Batters
In contrast to the Angels, Oakland ranks fifth in slugging against the fastball from righties.
When you account for Garcia’s other primary stuff, which combines to account for over 90 percent of his arsenal, the A’s rank third in slugging .547 against it from righties.
Watch out for Robbie Grossman, who loves facing Houston. His BA is .318 with three doubles and two homers in 22 at-bats against the Astros this season.
The Verdict
I’ve broken down two relatively unknown pitchers. Both seem very vulnerable today. Oakland matches up excellently with Garcia based on his pitch selection and Houston promises to dominate the lefty Luzardo.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 5 (Odds TBA)
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics
Wednesday, September 9, 2020 at 9:10 p.m. ET in Oakland Coliseum
Jesus Luzardo
Oakland’s Jesus Luzardo (2-2, 4.23 ERA) makes his seventh start of the season.
Luzardo primarily relies on his sinker. When facing either a same-handed (meaning left-handed) batter or a right-handed batter, he throws this pitch 38 percent of the time.
His primary aim with this pitch is to generate ground balls. Relative to the average sinker, he gives his sinker a strong amount of horizontal break.
So the idea is that batters swing on top of this moving sinker thus hitting the pitch into the ground.
Ideally, a pitcher emphasizes with his sinker the lower parts of the strike zone.
But pitching charts show that Luzardo strongly concentrates his sinker in the more middle parts of the zone.
Its poor location largely explains why batters slug .463 when he throws this pitch.
Luzardo is a lefty. When he faces righties, he wants to emphasize his off-speed stuff in order to keep them off-balance.
Hence, his change-up is easily his second-favorite pitch to offer a right-handed batter.
His change-up has the advantage of lower location in addition to strong horizontal movement.
But this pitch remains unspectacular. Its low spin rate creates less deceptiveness in its location.
Moreover, its velocity differential relative to his fastball (8.3 mph) is ordinary.
For these reasons, righties manage to hit .273 against it.
Luzardo vs. Astro Batters
Luzardo is at least promising because he is trying to develop a change-up with which to attack opposite handed-batters. This pitch as well as some other minor features help him remain decent against weaker lineups.
His best games have come against teams — like the Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Angels -- that rank in the bottom 10 against left-handed pitchers.
In contrast, his worst games — against Colorado, San Diego, and San Francisco — foregrounded opponents that rank top-11 against southpaws.
I like Houston today because it ranks eighth against southpaws. Match-up wise, it is thus akin to the Rockies, etc., rather than to the Diamondbacks, etc.
Look out for Carlos Correa who is owning lefties with a .359 BA.
Luis Garcia’s First Career Start
Because Lance McCullers is injured, Luis Garcia (0-0, 2.08 ERA) will make his second career professional appearance and his first ever Major League start.
Don’t be fooled by Garcia’s surface stats because he’s hardly pitched. Garcia’s first game performance masks a 5.49 xERA (expected ERA).
xERA accounts for the amount and quality of contact that batters are making with a pitcher’s offerings in order to reconstruct a more honest assessment of a pitcher’s performance.
His xERA makes more sense when you understand that Garcia is starting today purely out of necessity and not by choice.
Garcia’s role assessment has been the subject of some controversy.
Houston clearly thinks that he can be a starter. Although his first appearance was out of the bullpen, he’s been groomed to become a starter.
A lot of scouts think, however, that he belongs in the bullpen. They cite his arm action, which is very short, and his complicated, not-so-smooth delivery.
Garcia Breakdown
Young pitchers work on cultivating greater pitch variety as their professional career progresses.
Garcia clearly isn’t there yet. His favorite pitch is his fastball and he throws it 62 percent of the time.
Scouting reports insist that he enjoys strong command with this pitch. Perhaps he’s been skittish on an MLB mound as he seems to be trying to nibble along the borders of the strike zone. Right now, 36.59 percent of his fastballs are balls.
There seems to be good reason for his plate-nibbling proclivity. When his fastball landed in the more middle parts of the plate, Angels batters did a tremendous job of generating a high average exit velocity.
Because of them, his fastball is yielding a .667 slugging rate.
Obviously, Garcia’s difficulties with what is clearly his favorite pitch is alarming. This is especially true when you consider that the Angels are the second-worst team in slugging against the fastball from righties.
Garcia vs. Oakland Batters
In contrast to the Angels, Oakland ranks fifth in slugging against the fastball from righties.
When you account for Garcia’s other primary stuff, which combines to account for over 90 percent of his arsenal, the A’s rank third in slugging .547 against it from righties.
Watch out for Robbie Grossman, who loves facing Houston. His BA is .318 with three doubles and two homers in 22 at-bats against the Astros this season.
The Verdict
I’ve broken down two relatively unknown pitchers. Both seem very vulnerable today. Oakland matches up excellently with Garcia based on his pitch selection and Houston promises to dominate the lefty Luzardo.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 5 (Odds TBA)
