White Sox And Mets Struggle To Score, While Indians Soar Past Astros
Houston (68-39) at Cleveland (62-43)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Indians First-Five RL
Houston's Justin Verlander (13-4, 2.86 ERA) recently made headlines for claiming that balls are juiced. He's just the type of player to conceive this complaint because he is a fly ball pitcher. He induces grounders with only 34 percent frequency. His chief object is to keep fly balls from leaving the park, which he has struggled to do in more hitter-friendly ballparks.
In his past five games in his home venue, he's allowed 10 homers. The other occasions on which he allowed multiple homers arrived in Cincinnati and in Anaheim. What unites these venues is that they rank top-10 in rate of homers and are the only three such venues that Verlander has pitched in this year. Until tonight. Cleveland's Progressive Field ranks eighth in home runs. Historically, of the 23 venues in which he's started multiple times, it's also his least favorite by ERA. In 28 starts there, he's 9-16 with a 5.56 ERA.
One shouldn't be deceived by Verlander's strong overall numbers against active Cleveland batters. Of the 210 at-bats, over half come from Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis. Look for Francisco Lindor to be productive. He's 10-for-29 (.345) with a double, triple, and homer against Verlander. He also carries a 10-game hitting streak into tonight's contest while batting over .400 and slugging over .700 in his past seven days.
Cleveland's Shane Bieber (10-3, 3.44 ERA) shows strong form, yielding a sub-three FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in seven of his last eight starts. In the other start, his FIP was 3.23. Given his success, he's Cleveland's most profitable pitcher. He's won his last four decisions, generating +6.7 units, and the Indians have won the last five games in which he started.
Bieber throws three pitches with at least 18 percent frequency: his curveball, slider, and fastball. His "worst" pitch is his fastball, which opponents bat .216 against. It's also his favorite pitch by frequency -- he throws it nearly half the time. It enjoys above-average spin and velocity, moderate arm-side tail, and its three most frequent locations are along a border of the strike zone.
His fastball effectivity is important because, for all of its usual dominance, Houston is statistically mediocre against the fastball from righties. Astro batters have seen little of Bieber, but have shown little promise, producing four hits in 24 at-bats (.167).
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New York Mets (50-55) at Chicago White Sox (46-57)
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Five "Under"
Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez (5-9, 5.52) shows a misleading ERA because it reflects his poor performance to start the season. Since the All-Star Break, however, his ERA is 1.71 in 21 innings. During this three-start span, opponents are batting .171 and slugging .276 against him. He's allowed combined four runs. Lopez's improvement is historically consistent in that his career second-half ERA is .96 lower than his career first-half ERA.
During the course of the year, Lopez has improved both his velocity and command. His fastball averages 3.64 more mph than it did in his season opener. He's walked four batters in his last three starts combined, eight fewer than he did in his first three starts. His last three opponents have each averaged lower than .200 against his fastball even though one of them, Oakland, ranks sixth in slugging against the fastball.
His fastball success is crucial because it's his favorite pitch. He throws it more than half the time. During his second-half streak, he's thrown it for a strike 7.64 percent more often than for a ball. Besides its top-notch velocity, it enjoys moderate arm-side action. Met batters have barely seen him. One who may not face him is their BA leader Jeff McNeil, who's listed as 'questionable' with a shin contusion.
Like Lopez, New York's Noah Syndergaard (7-5, 4.33 ERA) carries a misleading ERA given his improvement in performance. His FIP was 3.09 or lower in each of his last three starts, in which, totaling 21 innings, he's allowed six earned runs combined.
Syndergaard, who has been the subject of trade rumors, will put his arsenal on display. He relies primarily on a fastball-sinker combo. Both pitches combine for 59 percent of his arsenal. They each average 97-98 mph with his sinker exhibiting stronger arm-side movement.
Throughout the year, White Sox hitters have proven to match up poorly with Syndergaard. In the past two weeks, they rank last in slugging .288 against the high-velocity (93-98 mph) sinker and fastball from righties combined. Lately, they've been hitting little of anything, averaging two runs in their past six games. For example, Jose Abreu has two hits in his last 19 at-bats (.105).
Houston (68-39) at Cleveland (62-43)
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Indians First-Five RL
Houston's Justin Verlander (13-4, 2.86 ERA) recently made headlines for claiming that balls are juiced. He's just the type of player to conceive this complaint because he is a fly ball pitcher. He induces grounders with only 34 percent frequency. His chief object is to keep fly balls from leaving the park, which he has struggled to do in more hitter-friendly ballparks.
In his past five games in his home venue, he's allowed 10 homers. The other occasions on which he allowed multiple homers arrived in Cincinnati and in Anaheim. What unites these venues is that they rank top-10 in rate of homers and are the only three such venues that Verlander has pitched in this year. Until tonight. Cleveland's Progressive Field ranks eighth in home runs. Historically, of the 23 venues in which he's started multiple times, it's also his least favorite by ERA. In 28 starts there, he's 9-16 with a 5.56 ERA.
One shouldn't be deceived by Verlander's strong overall numbers against active Cleveland batters. Of the 210 at-bats, over half come from Carlos Santana and Jason Kipnis. Look for Francisco Lindor to be productive. He's 10-for-29 (.345) with a double, triple, and homer against Verlander. He also carries a 10-game hitting streak into tonight's contest while batting over .400 and slugging over .700 in his past seven days.
Cleveland's Shane Bieber (10-3, 3.44 ERA) shows strong form, yielding a sub-three FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) in seven of his last eight starts. In the other start, his FIP was 3.23. Given his success, he's Cleveland's most profitable pitcher. He's won his last four decisions, generating +6.7 units, and the Indians have won the last five games in which he started.
Bieber throws three pitches with at least 18 percent frequency: his curveball, slider, and fastball. His "worst" pitch is his fastball, which opponents bat .216 against. It's also his favorite pitch by frequency -- he throws it nearly half the time. It enjoys above-average spin and velocity, moderate arm-side tail, and its three most frequent locations are along a border of the strike zone.
His fastball effectivity is important because, for all of its usual dominance, Houston is statistically mediocre against the fastball from righties. Astro batters have seen little of Bieber, but have shown little promise, producing four hits in 24 at-bats (.167).
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New York Mets (50-55) at Chicago White Sox (46-57)
When: 8:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Five "Under"
Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez (5-9, 5.52) shows a misleading ERA because it reflects his poor performance to start the season. Since the All-Star Break, however, his ERA is 1.71 in 21 innings. During this three-start span, opponents are batting .171 and slugging .276 against him. He's allowed combined four runs. Lopez's improvement is historically consistent in that his career second-half ERA is .96 lower than his career first-half ERA.
During the course of the year, Lopez has improved both his velocity and command. His fastball averages 3.64 more mph than it did in his season opener. He's walked four batters in his last three starts combined, eight fewer than he did in his first three starts. His last three opponents have each averaged lower than .200 against his fastball even though one of them, Oakland, ranks sixth in slugging against the fastball.
His fastball success is crucial because it's his favorite pitch. He throws it more than half the time. During his second-half streak, he's thrown it for a strike 7.64 percent more often than for a ball. Besides its top-notch velocity, it enjoys moderate arm-side action. Met batters have barely seen him. One who may not face him is their BA leader Jeff McNeil, who's listed as 'questionable' with a shin contusion.
Like Lopez, New York's Noah Syndergaard (7-5, 4.33 ERA) carries a misleading ERA given his improvement in performance. His FIP was 3.09 or lower in each of his last three starts, in which, totaling 21 innings, he's allowed six earned runs combined.
Syndergaard, who has been the subject of trade rumors, will put his arsenal on display. He relies primarily on a fastball-sinker combo. Both pitches combine for 59 percent of his arsenal. They each average 97-98 mph with his sinker exhibiting stronger arm-side movement.
Throughout the year, White Sox hitters have proven to match up poorly with Syndergaard. In the past two weeks, they rank last in slugging .288 against the high-velocity (93-98 mph) sinker and fastball from righties combined. Lately, they've been hitting little of anything, averaging two runs in their past six games. For example, Jose Abreu has two hits in his last 19 at-bats (.105).
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