assraped on baylor
- Thread starter cubsker
- Start date
They are probably losing anyway ...Cant see how they made WSU a fav there like begging for Baylor money and seems like everyone lined up anyway moving it 3 pts or so from open.....
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
It's now moved 7.5 points from the opener of +5. I don't think they were begging for Baylor money - they were clueless.
Its all opinion at this point but 5 was like the fake offshore opener . I say fake because of the competition for dollars we see alot of "crazy" openers there for shorts periods of time . The way I see it it was more like WSU -2.5 thats were its widely available to everyone .
Its like the stock market when they have BS trades for a few hundred or thousand shares and shows a stock trading in a crazy WIDE range that day . Its fake . The stock maybe traded at a price say 50 cents higher or lower for 2 minutes out of the day and teh avg guy looking at the high/low says oh I wish I could have done something there ..the only way to do something is stare at yor screen all day ...
So in my world the game moved 3.5 pts ..and I am not trying to be a dick about simple trying to explain my take on offshore openers . There feelers to test the market and dont weigh much in my decision making or opinions . I think I am making myself clear I am sure stock investors understand my point about bogus high/low quotes its like the samething here .....
I just dont see how a team loses 66-3 at home and you run the risk of overvaluing them next week . WSU has played 2 high octane offenses and lost both badly so lets see how they show vs an ordinary college team more on there level of talent ....
I am not arguing with you guys just stating my opinion on the line . Since the second I saw it I was playing WSU and still will probably though I hate the day lost not exactly the same situation it was ....:cheers:
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
I think the key difference between this and the stock market though is that we know when the opening lines are coming (usually within a half-hour or so), so we don't necessarily have to stare at the screen all day for that.
Also, I have to ask. How do you consider +5 a feeler for the market? Anyone here would be able to see that Washington St. should not be giving 5 here. Why not put it at +3 and take less of a pounding on the early line?
ou_sooners_1
Pretty much a regular
I can understand canceling if the game is moving to a different city like the Hou/AF game but not moving it up a day.
Absolutely true D and good point . I guess what I am saying is since offshores became the starting point its a different bag as each book is putting out there numbers rather then the more univeral way Vegas had been doing it . So while you might know when the openers are coming they still have smaller limits and it takes less money to move to which is why to me its a feeler number . They dont mind having a small position on a number being off a few points as long as they know it helps them get it more balanced or get it right . There still protecting themselves and at the end of the day very of those openers come into play . When they do its a minimal amount of money or take on the game . Sure it hurts some days and I am not saying it even helps them make money but it helps them run theer business. It serves a purpose . Otherwise why do it ? Books have long opened there numbers earlier to get player reaction but offshores were probably the first to do it to the avg customer. I could swear I read awhile back some books released there numbers to there "sharp" bettors early so they would know what lines were off. Seems to me doing the samething here..
I would ask why is WState even favored ? How many tickets you think were written at 5 ? I know it opened 5 offshore but show me a site that lists the opener of the game at something besides -2.5 ? I know Pinnacle and Scoresandodds.com both show -2.5 as the opener . Which I am sure if Look around all the sites that list oopeners will use -2.5 . Now I know it opened 5 off shore but I guess maybe the correct way to explain is look at more like IPO . Only certain people can invest in IPOs and its gonna usually open at different price then the suscriber price. Its gonna show a low of say 70$ where one could got in but the 1st print on the trade was 90$ ...the avg investor cant buy it at 70 so to me the real opener is 90.. eventually I get the comparision right so makes it complete sense
Every single dollar bet is going to Baylor so far this week . I would expect that TRU plays Wash State as some sort of fade play .
Why open 5 ? To get more Baylor money . Whats the real difference bewteen 3 and 5 ? Of course someone will say its a huge difference well it is logical terms but I would bet the game is decided either way by a TD. Its a huge difference if the result is a TD or less otherwise it will be inconsquential in the end . College is a tad tricker but if the closing line loses so does the opener 95% of thetime but in college when you have 6 pt gaps especially in a football it gets dicer with these offshores .....no arguement from me that in CFB there is more middling going on making the line more valuable but at the end of the day just doesnt impact many games ....a game like FLA vs Miami moves a bunch at -23 or 23.5 you see movement on a line you have to be buying insurance and take it of 23 @-22.5 -120 or -23 -120 ....you have to for 10 cents .....
I really dont want to waste OUR time debating this . Lets see how it plays out and since we respect eachother's take I know your stance and you know mine . We can rehash it after the game is over in a friendly recap ....I have no problem with being wrong on certain things (as in this debate) and neither of us can be right till they play ...so till then ..:shake:
D
ddk997
Guest
I would take Baylor at -10 !!!!!
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
Understood. Appreciate the input. If I remember I'll throw a PM your way after the game (probably on Sunday, as I'll be away until then).
I won't be on the Baylor side of things anymore, so BOL with Washington St. if you end up on them. :cheers:
Will do D. Happened to stumble across this while I was doing some research ...
Cougars Mysteriously Favored Over Baylor
By Howie Stalwick
For The Kitsap Sun
Thursday, September 11, 2008
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WACO, Texas
One week ago, Baylor won its football game by 45 points to improve to 1-1. Washington State lost its football game by 63 points to fall to 0-2.
So the Cougars are favored by 2 ½ points over Baylor tonight.
At Baylor.
Go figure.
Such is the lack of respect for Baylor football. The Bears have yet to post a winning record since joining the Big 12 Conference in 996. Only once have they escaped last place in the six-team South Division, and that was a fifth-place showing two years ago.
Of course, the Cougars can afford to take no opponent lightly after losing their first two games by a combined score of 105-16.
"We try to play through adversity," WSU safety Chima Nwachukwu said. "We stress that a lot."
A WSU team lacking in talent, experience and depth figures to face considerable adversity on a regular basis this fall. Tonight, the Cougars must deal with a last-minute change in travel plans and the date and time of the game, and the weather forecast calls for hot, muggy temperatures — but no heavy rain and winds, as had been feared for Saturday.
The Cougars have kept their starting quarterback a secret, but WSU has far more problems than quarterback play. Coming off a 66-3 loss to California, a shaky defense now faces a speedy, athletic quarterback in Baylor freshman Robert Griffin.
Rivals.com ranked Griffin the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback in the nation among high school seniors last year. He graduated early (seventh in his class), enrolled at Baylor last January, went through spring football. He then joined the track team in time to take third in the 400-meter hurdles at the NCAA Championships. WSU wide receiver Jeshua Anderson finished first.
The 6-foot-3, 200-pound Griffin originally verbaled to Houston, but he followed coach Art Briles to Baylor when Briles changed jobs. Griffin replaced Miami (Fla.) senior transfer Kirby Freeman in the first half of the opening game, then started last week and passed for 294 yards and three touchdowns.
"I'm the leader of the team," the 18-year-old Griffin declared.
"He's a scary guy," WSU coach Paul Wulff said.
Griffin also ran for 42 yards and a touchdown while operating a hurry-up, no-huddle offense similar to that run by WSU. The Bears struggled in a 41-13 loss to No. 23 Wake Forest — "A disgusting opening game," Briles said — then steamrolled Northwestern (La.) State 51-6. The Demons play in the former NCAA Division I-AA classification.
WSU opened against two teams coming off bowl wins, but simple errors in execution by the Cougars have led to some of the worst offensive and defensive statistics in the nation.
"You never imagine it starting out this rough," Gary Rogers said.
Wulff said Rogers, shaky in his first two career starts, may yield or share the quarterback duties with Kevin Lopina today. Both teams have plenty of questions on both sides of the ball, including the secondary.
WASHINGTON STATE (0-2) AT BAYLOR (1-1)
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m., Floyd Casey Stadium, Waco, Texas.
TV: FSN Radio: 850/1090 AM.
Coaches
Washington State: Paul Wulff (0-2, first year).
Baylor: Art Briles (1-1, first year).
Players to Watch
Baylor: QB Robert Griffin (15-for-19 for 294 yards and three TDs in true freshman's first start); WR Kendall Wright (true freshman has seven catches in two starts after turning down Texas to attend Baylor); MLB Joe Pawelek (Academic All-America candidate leads team with 25 tackles); FS Jordan Lake (led team with 120 tackles last year).
Washington State: MLB Greg Trent (Texas native leads team with 14 tackles); RB Dwight Tardy (team's leading rusher in 2006 and 2007 is averaging just 2.5 yards per carry behind a battered offensive line); QB Kevin Lopina (fourth-year junior may get his first college start one week after taking his first college snaps); WR Brandon Gibson (talented senior has been held to 9 catches for 83 yards and one TD).
Breaking Down the Game
Baylor: Griffin possesses the type of speed and athleticism that California used to destroy WSU last week. However, the Bears have plenty of question marks at other positions. The Bears played horribly in a loss to No. 23 Wake Forest and brilliantly in a rout of outclassed Northwestern State, so it's difficult to determine what the Bears can do against an underwhelming Pac-10 team like WSU. The Bears are ranked 86th and the Cougars 88th by SI.com out of 119 teams in the former NCAA Division I-A.
Washington State: A quick start might work wonders for a team that was thoroughly humiliated a week ago. Getting an early lead is never a bad idea on the road, particularly with the last-minute changes that forced the Cougars to fly to Waco today. Obviously, the Cougars hope another week of practice will help cut down on the plethora of mistakes that have marred both their games.
Prediction: Baylor 28, Washington State 21.
Howie Stalwick
Cougars Mysteriously Favored Over Baylor
By Howie Stalwick
For The Kitsap Sun
Thursday, September 11, 2008
STORY TOOLS
- Jones Ready For a New Qwest
- Cougars, Wolves Ready for Early Season Showdown
- Ike Bumps WSU Game to Friday
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One week ago, Baylor won its football game by 45 points to improve to 1-1. Washington State lost its football game by 63 points to fall to 0-2.
So the Cougars are favored by 2 ½ points over Baylor tonight.
At Baylor.
Go figure.
Such is the lack of respect for Baylor football. The Bears have yet to post a winning record since joining the Big 12 Conference in 996. Only once have they escaped last place in the six-team South Division, and that was a fifth-place showing two years ago.
Of course, the Cougars can afford to take no opponent lightly after losing their first two games by a combined score of 105-16.
"We try to play through adversity," WSU safety Chima Nwachukwu said. "We stress that a lot."
A WSU team lacking in talent, experience and depth figures to face considerable adversity on a regular basis this fall. Tonight, the Cougars must deal with a last-minute change in travel plans and the date and time of the game, and the weather forecast calls for hot, muggy temperatures — but no heavy rain and winds, as had been feared for Saturday.
The Cougars have kept their starting quarterback a secret, but WSU has far more problems than quarterback play. Coming off a 66-3 loss to California, a shaky defense now faces a speedy, athletic quarterback in Baylor freshman Robert Griffin.
Rivals.com ranked Griffin the No. 3 dual-threat quarterback in the nation among high school seniors last year. He graduated early (seventh in his class), enrolled at Baylor last January, went through spring football. He then joined the track team in time to take third in the 400-meter hurdles at the NCAA Championships. WSU wide receiver Jeshua Anderson finished first.
The 6-foot-3, 200-pound Griffin originally verbaled to Houston, but he followed coach Art Briles to Baylor when Briles changed jobs. Griffin replaced Miami (Fla.) senior transfer Kirby Freeman in the first half of the opening game, then started last week and passed for 294 yards and three touchdowns.
"I'm the leader of the team," the 18-year-old Griffin declared.
"He's a scary guy," WSU coach Paul Wulff said.
Griffin also ran for 42 yards and a touchdown while operating a hurry-up, no-huddle offense similar to that run by WSU. The Bears struggled in a 41-13 loss to No. 23 Wake Forest — "A disgusting opening game," Briles said — then steamrolled Northwestern (La.) State 51-6. The Demons play in the former NCAA Division I-AA classification.
WSU opened against two teams coming off bowl wins, but simple errors in execution by the Cougars have led to some of the worst offensive and defensive statistics in the nation.
"You never imagine it starting out this rough," Gary Rogers said.
Wulff said Rogers, shaky in his first two career starts, may yield or share the quarterback duties with Kevin Lopina today. Both teams have plenty of questions on both sides of the ball, including the secondary.
WASHINGTON STATE (0-2) AT BAYLOR (1-1)
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m., Floyd Casey Stadium, Waco, Texas.
TV: FSN Radio: 850/1090 AM.
Coaches
Washington State: Paul Wulff (0-2, first year).
Baylor: Art Briles (1-1, first year).
Players to Watch
Baylor: QB Robert Griffin (15-for-19 for 294 yards and three TDs in true freshman's first start); WR Kendall Wright (true freshman has seven catches in two starts after turning down Texas to attend Baylor); MLB Joe Pawelek (Academic All-America candidate leads team with 25 tackles); FS Jordan Lake (led team with 120 tackles last year).
Washington State: MLB Greg Trent (Texas native leads team with 14 tackles); RB Dwight Tardy (team's leading rusher in 2006 and 2007 is averaging just 2.5 yards per carry behind a battered offensive line); QB Kevin Lopina (fourth-year junior may get his first college start one week after taking his first college snaps); WR Brandon Gibson (talented senior has been held to 9 catches for 83 yards and one TD).
Breaking Down the Game
Baylor: Griffin possesses the type of speed and athleticism that California used to destroy WSU last week. However, the Bears have plenty of question marks at other positions. The Bears played horribly in a loss to No. 23 Wake Forest and brilliantly in a rout of outclassed Northwestern State, so it's difficult to determine what the Bears can do against an underwhelming Pac-10 team like WSU. The Bears are ranked 86th and the Cougars 88th by SI.com out of 119 teams in the former NCAA Division I-A.
Washington State: A quick start might work wonders for a team that was thoroughly humiliated a week ago. Getting an early lead is never a bad idea on the road, particularly with the last-minute changes that forced the Cougars to fly to Waco today. Obviously, the Cougars hope another week of practice will help cut down on the plethora of mistakes that have marred both their games.
Prediction: Baylor 28, Washington State 21.
Howie Stalwick
It definitely is bullshit... .especially for yall that caught them at +3/+4
I didnt lose as much, had them as a PK before the PPD but caught them at -2 a little bit ago.
Still, was a great spot for books to reset and null/void everyone who had baylor as a dog in this game and nullified the 7 ridiculous point move.
I think this was the biggest line move on a side all season so far in 1-A CFB .... and of course the books get a second go and a free pass here. Bullshit it is.... Fuckit, lets cash anyways:cheers:
I didnt lose as much, had them as a PK before the PPD but caught them at -2 a little bit ago.
Still, was a great spot for books to reset and null/void everyone who had baylor as a dog in this game and nullified the 7 ridiculous point move.
I think this was the biggest line move on a side all season so far in 1-A CFB .... and of course the books get a second go and a free pass here. Bullshit it is.... Fuckit, lets cash anyways:cheers:
I think baylor is going to be focused and definitely get up for this game
They know this may be one of the only games (besides iowa state at home... and MAYBE aTm at home) that theyre going to win this year.
Look at who they face:
@uconn
Oklahoma
Iowa State
@nebraska
Mizzou
@ Texas
aTm
@TTU
They know this may be one of the only games (besides iowa state at home... and MAYBE aTm at home) that theyre going to win this year.
Look at who they face:
@uconn
Oklahoma
Iowa State
@nebraska
Mizzou
@ Texas
aTm
@TTU
Its gonna be interesting the day earlier kinda changes my approach but I still feel they are begging for Baylor money from the open.
the unknown could be WSU jumping there QB and letting the KSU transfer play . Baylor lost every game by 20+ pts and they had lost about 10 straight before NWST.
The Cal game really was just terrible execution. Cal had like 3 long scores and like another 2 or 3 when they had the ball to start at like WSU 15. It was that odd of a game. They have given up 430 yds per yet 50++ppg which is illogical. 400 yds is vasically 5TDs or 35pts . So it speak sof the entire failure of the WSU team .....
Who knows....
the unknown could be WSU jumping there QB and letting the KSU transfer play . Baylor lost every game by 20+ pts and they had lost about 10 straight before NWST.
The Cal game really was just terrible execution. Cal had like 3 long scores and like another 2 or 3 when they had the ball to start at like WSU 15. It was that odd of a game. They have given up 430 yds per yet 50++ppg which is illogical. 400 yds is vasically 5TDs or 35pts . So it speak sof the entire failure of the WSU team .....
Who knows....
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
Wonder when Wazzou plans on getting out of town?
After the game? or tomorrow? They'll be a limited window tomorrow. Be a rough takeoff. Waco will be on the west side of the storm, so shouldn't be as bad once it comes inland. But a little bumpy, I'd think.
They may be ready to get the game over with and get the hell outta dodge.
Press
After the game? or tomorrow? They'll be a limited window tomorrow. Be a rough takeoff. Waco will be on the west side of the storm, so shouldn't be as bad once it comes inland. But a little bumpy, I'd think.
They may be ready to get the game over with and get the hell outta dodge.
Press
Well apparently WSU defense is ten million times then I could have possibly imagined . I was dead wrong about them but in the end the spread didnt matter ...Good work DMoney ...I felt good for about 7 minutes in this one . Well I was smart enough to take a stab on Baylor 2nd H and get some change back....blowout city...again nice work bro
