Check Out This Value-Laden Parlay for A’s-Yanks Showdown on ESPN
Oakland hosts the New York Yankees on Monday at 4 ET on ESPN. Celebrate Labor Day with a labor-free betting profit.
MLB Pick: A’s & Under Parlay
New York’s CC Sabathia (7-5, 3.36) doesn’t get a lot of love from bettors because he’s not the flashiest pitcher. The old man doesn’t hurl heaters or strike out many batters. But, he’s effective, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 2.50 in his last four starts. The „under“ is hitting in 68 percent of his games overall, 70 percent on the road, 73 percent when favored, and 100% (4-0-1) in day games.
Sabathia relies on a cutter-slider combo. Both pitches comprise 72 percent of his arsenal. His highest-velocity pitch averages under 92 mph. One tool that he employs to compensate for his lack of velocity is deception. His cutter and fastball average nearly identical vertical and horizontal release points, so that batters can’t discern which pitch is leaving Sabathia’s hand until it’s too late for them to adjust their swing. Sabathia’s favorite pitch is also his most effective. His cutter yields a .215 opposing BA. Two of his three most frequent cutter locations are inside against lefties. Against righties, he keeps his cutter away from them, concentrating its location on the further periphery of the strike zone. His slider is effective because it lacks vertical movement, which makes it harder for batters to track it, and boasts strong arm-side movement. He concentrates its location with over 40 percent frequency in the bottom row of the zone.
In 75 career at-bats, Oakland batters have mustered only four extra-base hits and a slugging rate of .387 against Sabathia. The A’s rank below average in slugging against Sabathia’s two favorite pitches from lefties. The „under“ is hitting in 56.8 percent of Oakland’s games against southpaws.
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Oakland’s Trevor Cahill (5-3, 3.60 ERA) seems to be in bad form, but has merely suffered the misfortune of playing on the road. At home, he’s a different guy. His road ERA is 7.02, his home ERA 0.85. He’s allowed zero runs in his last two starts—13 innings—at home. His FIP was under 2.00 in both starts, indicating that Cahill didn’t benefit from luck. Cahill has been a solid home bet, where Oakland is 6-2 in his starts, yielding +3.3 units. The „under“ is 6-1-1 (85.7%) in his home starts, whereas it’s 0-8-1 in his road starts.
Cahill’s most frequent pitch is the sinker. He utilizes it with 37 percent frequency and mixes in a curveball, slider, and change-up with combined 58 percent frequency. His sinker and change-up boast strong arm-side movement. Whereas he varies the former’s location, he concentrates the latter low, placing it with 48 percent frequency in the bottom row of the zone. Because of their movement and location, both pitches are his two favorite ground ball-inducing pitches. Because of its better location, his change-up is his most effective pitch, yielding an opposing .163 BA, which is why it’s his favorite pitch when the batter is ahead of the count. Cahill throws a hard slider, even though his velocity otherwise isn’t too spectacular. It averages 88 miles per hour and he concentrates its location with over 30 percent frequency in the two most lower-right spots in the zone.
The Yanks haven’t looked like themselves lately. Their lackluster results—which included a series loss against the lousy White Sox and a pair of near disasters against Detroit— minus the injured Aaron Judge persuaded them to acquire Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. Besides struggling against lower-tiered teams, the Yanks have lost all four of their post-All-Star Break games against playoff candidate teams. Sabathia and their second-best bullpen (in terms of FIP) will keep this game „under,“ but Cahill is dominant at home and the Yanks aren’t worth investing chalk in.
Oakland hosts the New York Yankees on Monday at 4 ET on ESPN. Celebrate Labor Day with a labor-free betting profit.
MLB Pick: A’s & Under Parlay
New York’s CC Sabathia (7-5, 3.36) doesn’t get a lot of love from bettors because he’s not the flashiest pitcher. The old man doesn’t hurl heaters or strike out many batters. But, he’s effective, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 2.50 in his last four starts. The „under“ is hitting in 68 percent of his games overall, 70 percent on the road, 73 percent when favored, and 100% (4-0-1) in day games.
Sabathia relies on a cutter-slider combo. Both pitches comprise 72 percent of his arsenal. His highest-velocity pitch averages under 92 mph. One tool that he employs to compensate for his lack of velocity is deception. His cutter and fastball average nearly identical vertical and horizontal release points, so that batters can’t discern which pitch is leaving Sabathia’s hand until it’s too late for them to adjust their swing. Sabathia’s favorite pitch is also his most effective. His cutter yields a .215 opposing BA. Two of his three most frequent cutter locations are inside against lefties. Against righties, he keeps his cutter away from them, concentrating its location on the further periphery of the strike zone. His slider is effective because it lacks vertical movement, which makes it harder for batters to track it, and boasts strong arm-side movement. He concentrates its location with over 40 percent frequency in the bottom row of the zone.
In 75 career at-bats, Oakland batters have mustered only four extra-base hits and a slugging rate of .387 against Sabathia. The A’s rank below average in slugging against Sabathia’s two favorite pitches from lefties. The „under“ is hitting in 56.8 percent of Oakland’s games against southpaws.
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Oakland’s Trevor Cahill (5-3, 3.60 ERA) seems to be in bad form, but has merely suffered the misfortune of playing on the road. At home, he’s a different guy. His road ERA is 7.02, his home ERA 0.85. He’s allowed zero runs in his last two starts—13 innings—at home. His FIP was under 2.00 in both starts, indicating that Cahill didn’t benefit from luck. Cahill has been a solid home bet, where Oakland is 6-2 in his starts, yielding +3.3 units. The „under“ is 6-1-1 (85.7%) in his home starts, whereas it’s 0-8-1 in his road starts.
Cahill’s most frequent pitch is the sinker. He utilizes it with 37 percent frequency and mixes in a curveball, slider, and change-up with combined 58 percent frequency. His sinker and change-up boast strong arm-side movement. Whereas he varies the former’s location, he concentrates the latter low, placing it with 48 percent frequency in the bottom row of the zone. Because of their movement and location, both pitches are his two favorite ground ball-inducing pitches. Because of its better location, his change-up is his most effective pitch, yielding an opposing .163 BA, which is why it’s his favorite pitch when the batter is ahead of the count. Cahill throws a hard slider, even though his velocity otherwise isn’t too spectacular. It averages 88 miles per hour and he concentrates its location with over 30 percent frequency in the two most lower-right spots in the zone.
The Yanks haven’t looked like themselves lately. Their lackluster results—which included a series loss against the lousy White Sox and a pair of near disasters against Detroit— minus the injured Aaron Judge persuaded them to acquire Andrew McCutchen from the Giants. Besides struggling against lower-tiered teams, the Yanks have lost all four of their post-All-Star Break games against playoff candidate teams. Sabathia and their second-best bullpen (in terms of FIP) will keep this game „under,“ but Cahill is dominant at home and the Yanks aren’t worth investing chalk in.
