Triple Pack Of Plays For Your Sunday Afternoon
Oakland (15-20) at Pittsburgh (15-15)
When: 1:35 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Pirates First-Half ML
Pittsburgh's Jordan Lyles (2-1, 2.42 ERA) relies on a fastball-curveball combination. Both pitches make up 72 percent of his arsenal. He's comfortable with his curveball, as indicated by his ability to work backwards and throw it as his first pitch. Both pitches play off each other in several respects. He loves to elevate his fastball, throwing it with 41 percent frequency in the highest row of the strike zone. Conversely, he concentrates his curveball in the lowest row of the zone. By following a fastball with a curveball or vice versa, he changes the opposing batter's eye level. Also, he keeps the hitter off-balance with an 11 mph velocity differential between both pitches.
Oakland batters rank 21st in slugging against Lyles' two favorite pitches, the fastball and curveball, thrown by righties. Lyles matches up especially well against the A's because they have a righty-heavy lineup and Lyles has thrived against same-handed batters. He is allowing righties to hit .182 and slug .295 against him thus far. They have three extra-base hits compared to 10 strikeouts. Lyles has limited experience against Oakland batters. Khris Davis is all of 0-for-3 against him.
Frankie Montas (4-2, 2.97 ERA) counters for Oakland. His key characteristic is velocity. His fastball and sinker together compose 56 percent of his arsenal and his fastball averages 97 mph and his sinker 96 mph. He matches up poorly against a Pirate lineup that ranks 10th in slugging against the fastball and sinker that averages between 93 and 98 mph thrown by righties. Overall, the Pirates are one of the better teams against strong velocity.
In terms of team form, the Pirates overcame a dreadful losing streak to win three of their past four, scoring six or seven runs in those victories. Watch out especially for Josh Bell, who has a hit in each of his last five games with at least one extra-base hit in four of them. Conversely, the A's have lost seven of their last eighth, all on the same road trip.
Minnesota (20-11) at New York Yankees (18-14)
When: 4:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Yankees First-Half ML
I want to fade Minnesota starter Michael Pineda (2-2, 6.21 ERA) for two reasons. One, he is making his first trip to Yankee Stadium as an opponent to face his old team and many old friends. Pineda spent four years as a Yankee, from 2014-2017, before missing 2018 due to recovery from Tommy John Surgery. So, this could be an emotional moment and a source of extra distraction for him.
Most importantly, Pineda is struggling to establish himself in his return from injury. He has allowed four, five, or six runs in his last three starts. In two of them, he allowed two homers. Pineda relies primarily on a fastball-slider combo and he mixes in a change-up. The velocity of each of his pitches is down close to two mph from last year. His lack of quality is also evident in his lessened ability to induce batters to chase his pitches outside the zone and to whiff at his pitches. When he does throw a strike, he's frequently leaving his pitches in more hittable, middle parts of the plate.
In terms of opposing batters, watch out especially for DJ LeMahieu, who has at least one hit in six straight games. In four of those games, he has either two or three hits.
Domingo German (5-1, 2.56 ERA) counters for the Yankees. German also shows less velocity in his pitches. But in his case, it's by choice. German shows vast improvement from last year. He's not striking out as many batters, which makes sense given his lower velocity. But, he is commanding his pitches well, allowing fewer walks and fewer homers.
German is still a fastball-curveball pitcher. Both pitches make up 67 percent of his arsenal. Although each pitch is slower, he is more effective with each one, yielding a .189 opposing BA with his fastball and a .125 opposing BA with his curve. German is specially comfortable with his curveball, showing the rare ability to elevate it. He features it both at the beginning and at the end of at-bats.
His last start was a boring one against the Giants. The Yanks were up 8-0 and German lost focus after five shutout innings, although he still earned the win. He had allowed five runs in his other five starts combined.
Arizona (20-13) at Colorado (15-19)
When: 3:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Half Under
Arizona's Zack Greinke (5-1, 3.27 ERA) shows spectacular form, allowing one run in his last three starts combined and three runs in his last four starts, despite enduring seven innings in three of those starts and six innings in the other.
Greinke's pitches don't have much velocity. But they continue to be effective. His three main pitches are the fastball, slider, and change-up. Opponents are batting .173 against the fastball, .163 against the change-up, and .229 against the slider. One reason why his pitches are effective is movement. His change-up, for example, features strong arm-side movement and his slider has great "slide" with little vertical movement. He enhances their perceived velocity and otherwise their effectiveness by using deception by letting his pitches share very similar vertical and horizontal release points. He doesn't need to throw pitches in the strike zone so often because his opponents are chasing his pitches with 35.4 percent frequency,.
Colorado batters have seen much of Greinke. But exposure can't help them because of his unpredictability and the variety in his arsenal. In 283 career at-bats, they are hitting .230 him. They do seem to have hit a decent number of homers against him, but the widest number of those were later in outings, when the game was practically decided, and solo shots.
Colorado's German Marquez (3-2, 2.93 ERA) looks like he can keep up with Greinke--at least through five innings. Through as many innings, he is averaging one run allowed in his last four starts in which he has either shut out his opponent or allowed two runs. The "under" is 5-1-1 in Marquez' starts largely because of his performance.
Marquez is building off of the successful end to his 2018 campaign. He has grown a lot as a pitcher, relying heavily on his fastball as a rookie and now thriving with greater variety. In particular, he has developed a slider that he throws almost as often as his fastball. In the 207 times that he's thrown it, he's allowed only one extra-base hit. He commands it for a high strike rate, despite placing it precisely with 42 percent frequency in the three lowest-right spots in the strike zone.
He is still a high-velocity pitcher whose fastball averages 95 mph. His development of other pitches allows him to throw opposing batters off-balance with a greater velocity differential between pitches.
Oakland (15-20) at Pittsburgh (15-15)
When: 1:35 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Pirates First-Half ML
Pittsburgh's Jordan Lyles (2-1, 2.42 ERA) relies on a fastball-curveball combination. Both pitches make up 72 percent of his arsenal. He's comfortable with his curveball, as indicated by his ability to work backwards and throw it as his first pitch. Both pitches play off each other in several respects. He loves to elevate his fastball, throwing it with 41 percent frequency in the highest row of the strike zone. Conversely, he concentrates his curveball in the lowest row of the zone. By following a fastball with a curveball or vice versa, he changes the opposing batter's eye level. Also, he keeps the hitter off-balance with an 11 mph velocity differential between both pitches.
Oakland batters rank 21st in slugging against Lyles' two favorite pitches, the fastball and curveball, thrown by righties. Lyles matches up especially well against the A's because they have a righty-heavy lineup and Lyles has thrived against same-handed batters. He is allowing righties to hit .182 and slug .295 against him thus far. They have three extra-base hits compared to 10 strikeouts. Lyles has limited experience against Oakland batters. Khris Davis is all of 0-for-3 against him.
Frankie Montas (4-2, 2.97 ERA) counters for Oakland. His key characteristic is velocity. His fastball and sinker together compose 56 percent of his arsenal and his fastball averages 97 mph and his sinker 96 mph. He matches up poorly against a Pirate lineup that ranks 10th in slugging against the fastball and sinker that averages between 93 and 98 mph thrown by righties. Overall, the Pirates are one of the better teams against strong velocity.
In terms of team form, the Pirates overcame a dreadful losing streak to win three of their past four, scoring six or seven runs in those victories. Watch out especially for Josh Bell, who has a hit in each of his last five games with at least one extra-base hit in four of them. Conversely, the A's have lost seven of their last eighth, all on the same road trip.
Minnesota (20-11) at New York Yankees (18-14)
When: 4:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Yankees First-Half ML
I want to fade Minnesota starter Michael Pineda (2-2, 6.21 ERA) for two reasons. One, he is making his first trip to Yankee Stadium as an opponent to face his old team and many old friends. Pineda spent four years as a Yankee, from 2014-2017, before missing 2018 due to recovery from Tommy John Surgery. So, this could be an emotional moment and a source of extra distraction for him.
Most importantly, Pineda is struggling to establish himself in his return from injury. He has allowed four, five, or six runs in his last three starts. In two of them, he allowed two homers. Pineda relies primarily on a fastball-slider combo and he mixes in a change-up. The velocity of each of his pitches is down close to two mph from last year. His lack of quality is also evident in his lessened ability to induce batters to chase his pitches outside the zone and to whiff at his pitches. When he does throw a strike, he's frequently leaving his pitches in more hittable, middle parts of the plate.
In terms of opposing batters, watch out especially for DJ LeMahieu, who has at least one hit in six straight games. In four of those games, he has either two or three hits.
Domingo German (5-1, 2.56 ERA) counters for the Yankees. German also shows less velocity in his pitches. But in his case, it's by choice. German shows vast improvement from last year. He's not striking out as many batters, which makes sense given his lower velocity. But, he is commanding his pitches well, allowing fewer walks and fewer homers.
German is still a fastball-curveball pitcher. Both pitches make up 67 percent of his arsenal. Although each pitch is slower, he is more effective with each one, yielding a .189 opposing BA with his fastball and a .125 opposing BA with his curve. German is specially comfortable with his curveball, showing the rare ability to elevate it. He features it both at the beginning and at the end of at-bats.
His last start was a boring one against the Giants. The Yanks were up 8-0 and German lost focus after five shutout innings, although he still earned the win. He had allowed five runs in his other five starts combined.
Arizona (20-13) at Colorado (15-19)
When: 3:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: First-Half Under
Arizona's Zack Greinke (5-1, 3.27 ERA) shows spectacular form, allowing one run in his last three starts combined and three runs in his last four starts, despite enduring seven innings in three of those starts and six innings in the other.
Greinke's pitches don't have much velocity. But they continue to be effective. His three main pitches are the fastball, slider, and change-up. Opponents are batting .173 against the fastball, .163 against the change-up, and .229 against the slider. One reason why his pitches are effective is movement. His change-up, for example, features strong arm-side movement and his slider has great "slide" with little vertical movement. He enhances their perceived velocity and otherwise their effectiveness by using deception by letting his pitches share very similar vertical and horizontal release points. He doesn't need to throw pitches in the strike zone so often because his opponents are chasing his pitches with 35.4 percent frequency,.
Colorado batters have seen much of Greinke. But exposure can't help them because of his unpredictability and the variety in his arsenal. In 283 career at-bats, they are hitting .230 him. They do seem to have hit a decent number of homers against him, but the widest number of those were later in outings, when the game was practically decided, and solo shots.
Colorado's German Marquez (3-2, 2.93 ERA) looks like he can keep up with Greinke--at least through five innings. Through as many innings, he is averaging one run allowed in his last four starts in which he has either shut out his opponent or allowed two runs. The "under" is 5-1-1 in Marquez' starts largely because of his performance.
Marquez is building off of the successful end to his 2018 campaign. He has grown a lot as a pitcher, relying heavily on his fastball as a rookie and now thriving with greater variety. In particular, he has developed a slider that he throws almost as often as his fastball. In the 207 times that he's thrown it, he's allowed only one extra-base hit. He commands it for a high strike rate, despite placing it precisely with 42 percent frequency in the three lowest-right spots in the strike zone.
He is still a high-velocity pitcher whose fastball averages 95 mph. His development of other pitches allows him to throw opposing batters off-balance with a greater velocity differential between pitches.
