Cubs And Dodgers Serve Up Home Cooking For Monday Bettors
Oakland (64-48) at Chicago Cubs (60-51)
When: 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
MLB Pick: Cubs First-Five RL
Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (8-8, 3.07 ERA) is in a reliable spot today at home. In Wrigley Field, he's yielding a 1.89 ERA in 62 innings with opponents hitting .206 and slugging .309 against him. He's shut out his last two opponents overall and allowed five runs combined in his last three home starts.
Hendricks is a prime example of a pitcher who thrives without relying on velocity. None of his pitches averages even 90 mph. However, he boasts pinpoint control, walking fewer than two batters per nine innings and distributing his stuff evenly across different parts of the plate.
Against righties, Hendricks leans heavily on his sinker, which is good because they bat .225 against it, struggling with its strong glove-side tail and unusually frequent elevated location. Against lefties, Hendricks is very balanced, throwing all four of his pitches over 10 percent of the time, which makes him less predictable. His favorite weapon against lefties and in general is his change-up, which is his best whiff pitch because of its strong and unusual movement and his good control over it.
At Wrigley Field, righties are batting .199 against Hendricks, which is bad news for Oakland's righty-heavy lineup. Oakland's BA leader is righty Ramon Laureano, who's currently injured. Only three Athletic batters have ever faced Hendricks. Khris Davis, for example, has zero extra-base hits and four strikeouts in 17 at-bats.
Oakland's Chris Bassitt (7-5, 3.84 ERA) is coming off one of his strongest starts this season. This recent success spells bad news for today because of his tendential inconsistency. In each of his last two starts following one in which he shut out his opponent, he yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 7.00. Bassitt has been particularly unreliable away from Oakland, where he yields a 5.21 FIP and has allowed six homers in his last four starts.
Bassitt relies primarily on his sinker. At home, the Cubs slug .533 against this pitch. But they also hit pretty much everything well at home, where they've won seven of their past eight and 10 of their past 12 games. On the season, they're 38-18 at home, yielding +10.7 units. They've scored six runs or more in four of their past five home games. Watch out for Nick Castellanos, who's 4-for-11 (.364) with three doubles in his career against Bassitt.
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St. Louis (58-52) at Los Angeles Dodgers (74-40)
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Dodgers First-Five RL
L.A.'s Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 5.63 ERA) has a high ERA because he's only made two appearances, one of which was his first outing as a professional and it went poorly. But he bounced back in his last appearance to allow only one run in four innings in Coors Field.
Every youngster who makes it to the MLB has good stuff. What separates those who struggle at least initially from those who thrive is command. Gonsolin has no problem throwing strikes. He's walked zero batters in eight innings so far and three of his four most frequent pitch locations are along a border of the strike zone.
Gonsolin is unique in several respects: his fastball generates ground balls at an unusually high rate, 13.56 percent of the time, thanks partly to its ranking 75th in spin rate. His slider is unusually hard with average 87.66 mph. Most famously, his splitter features strong and unusual movement and enjoys a ton of backspin. He can surprise batters by elevating it, but places it in the lowest row of the strike zone with 45 percent frequency. For these reasons, it's his favorite ground-ball inducing pitch.
No Cardinal batter has faced Gonsolin, whose unique characteristics will be decisive today because St. Louis' lineup is notorious for struggling against young and unfamiliar pitchers. One recent example is Miami's Jordan Yamamoto, whose first two starts came against the Cards. He shut them out through seven innings both times, but now suffers a 3.94 ERA. Cardinal batters have anyhow been struggling, having scored two runs or fewer in five of their past seven games. Marcell Ozuna is 1-for-6 (.166) since returning from injury.
The back end of St. Louis' pitching rotation has been extremely unreliable. So Michael Wacha (6-4, 5.15 ERA) returns to make his first start since July 4th.
Wacha suffers from leaning heavily on an unsuccessful pitch. He throws his fastball 49 percent of the time and opponents hit .320 against it. His last four opponents have each hit .300 or higher against it. His fastball suffers from poor, often middle-of-the-plate placement, little spin for which it ranks in the ninth percentile, and undisguised delivery. Batters see his fastball coming and easily make good contact.
Dodger batters are some among many who've thrived against Wacha and his fastball. In 58 career at-bats against him, they hit .379 and slug .603. Watch out for A.J. Pollock, who's 5-for-11 (.455) with two doubles and a homer against Wacha. Whereas Dodger Stadium is one of Wacha's least favorite venues to pitch in by career ERA, it's the favorite place of Dodger hitters. L.A. is 42-15 at home, yielding +16.1 units.
Oakland (64-48) at Chicago Cubs (60-51)
When: 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
MLB Pick: Cubs First-Five RL
Chicago's Kyle Hendricks (8-8, 3.07 ERA) is in a reliable spot today at home. In Wrigley Field, he's yielding a 1.89 ERA in 62 innings with opponents hitting .206 and slugging .309 against him. He's shut out his last two opponents overall and allowed five runs combined in his last three home starts.
Hendricks is a prime example of a pitcher who thrives without relying on velocity. None of his pitches averages even 90 mph. However, he boasts pinpoint control, walking fewer than two batters per nine innings and distributing his stuff evenly across different parts of the plate.
Against righties, Hendricks leans heavily on his sinker, which is good because they bat .225 against it, struggling with its strong glove-side tail and unusually frequent elevated location. Against lefties, Hendricks is very balanced, throwing all four of his pitches over 10 percent of the time, which makes him less predictable. His favorite weapon against lefties and in general is his change-up, which is his best whiff pitch because of its strong and unusual movement and his good control over it.
At Wrigley Field, righties are batting .199 against Hendricks, which is bad news for Oakland's righty-heavy lineup. Oakland's BA leader is righty Ramon Laureano, who's currently injured. Only three Athletic batters have ever faced Hendricks. Khris Davis, for example, has zero extra-base hits and four strikeouts in 17 at-bats.
Oakland's Chris Bassitt (7-5, 3.84 ERA) is coming off one of his strongest starts this season. This recent success spells bad news for today because of his tendential inconsistency. In each of his last two starts following one in which he shut out his opponent, he yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 7.00. Bassitt has been particularly unreliable away from Oakland, where he yields a 5.21 FIP and has allowed six homers in his last four starts.
Bassitt relies primarily on his sinker. At home, the Cubs slug .533 against this pitch. But they also hit pretty much everything well at home, where they've won seven of their past eight and 10 of their past 12 games. On the season, they're 38-18 at home, yielding +10.7 units. They've scored six runs or more in four of their past five home games. Watch out for Nick Castellanos, who's 4-for-11 (.364) with three doubles in his career against Bassitt.
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St. Louis (58-52) at Los Angeles Dodgers (74-40)
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Dodgers First-Five RL
L.A.'s Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 5.63 ERA) has a high ERA because he's only made two appearances, one of which was his first outing as a professional and it went poorly. But he bounced back in his last appearance to allow only one run in four innings in Coors Field.
Every youngster who makes it to the MLB has good stuff. What separates those who struggle at least initially from those who thrive is command. Gonsolin has no problem throwing strikes. He's walked zero batters in eight innings so far and three of his four most frequent pitch locations are along a border of the strike zone.
Gonsolin is unique in several respects: his fastball generates ground balls at an unusually high rate, 13.56 percent of the time, thanks partly to its ranking 75th in spin rate. His slider is unusually hard with average 87.66 mph. Most famously, his splitter features strong and unusual movement and enjoys a ton of backspin. He can surprise batters by elevating it, but places it in the lowest row of the strike zone with 45 percent frequency. For these reasons, it's his favorite ground-ball inducing pitch.
No Cardinal batter has faced Gonsolin, whose unique characteristics will be decisive today because St. Louis' lineup is notorious for struggling against young and unfamiliar pitchers. One recent example is Miami's Jordan Yamamoto, whose first two starts came against the Cards. He shut them out through seven innings both times, but now suffers a 3.94 ERA. Cardinal batters have anyhow been struggling, having scored two runs or fewer in five of their past seven games. Marcell Ozuna is 1-for-6 (.166) since returning from injury.
The back end of St. Louis' pitching rotation has been extremely unreliable. So Michael Wacha (6-4, 5.15 ERA) returns to make his first start since July 4th.
Wacha suffers from leaning heavily on an unsuccessful pitch. He throws his fastball 49 percent of the time and opponents hit .320 against it. His last four opponents have each hit .300 or higher against it. His fastball suffers from poor, often middle-of-the-plate placement, little spin for which it ranks in the ninth percentile, and undisguised delivery. Batters see his fastball coming and easily make good contact.
Dodger batters are some among many who've thrived against Wacha and his fastball. In 58 career at-bats against him, they hit .379 and slug .603. Watch out for A.J. Pollock, who's 5-for-11 (.455) with two doubles and a homer against Wacha. Whereas Dodger Stadium is one of Wacha's least favorite venues to pitch in by career ERA, it's the favorite place of Dodger hitters. L.A. is 42-15 at home, yielding +16.1 units.
