Arkansas vs. Florida NCAAF Week 11 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Kyle Pitts
Florida is a pass-first team. It owns the nation’s 13th-highest pass play percentage.
Quarterback Kyle Trask’s favorite target is his tight end, Kyle Pitts.
Gator backers should worry because Pitts is still listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s game.
Against Georgia, Pitts took a tremendous hit while attempting to hold onto a pass despite the locomotive-like force of a Georgia defender.
The player who hit Pitts was ejected from the game for targeting. But the damage was done. Pitts suffered a concussion and so could not return to the game.
Currently, Pitts has 75 more receiving yards than any other Gator pass-catcher. He also leads the pass-catching crew in touchdowns with eight.
Among Gator pass-catchers who have caught at least 10 passes, he leads with 17.3 YPC.
Pitts is the Gator version of Raider tight end Darren Waller. He is well-sized at 6-6, but also extremely athletic.
His size doesn’t just help him in the end zone. But he becomes a reliably easy target to find when Trask needs to get rid of the ball in a hurry. Arkansas loves to blitz, so this last point is relatively important.
He has great body control at the point of attack. His immeasurable vertical ability makes him a deep threat. Even when he isn’t making Waller-like acrobatic grabs, he has reliable hands.
When Trask was injured, Florida’s offense stalled in terms of scoring and suffered. In the second half without Pitts, the Gators could only muster six points
After losing four wide receivers to the NFL, Florida’s pass-catching crew becomes rather bare without Pitts.
To be clear, whether Pitts plays or not should not influence whether you bet on the Razorbacks. But his absence should motivate you to increase your wager size.
Arkansas Pass Defense
Kyle Trask will be the third quarterback this season that Arkansas faces who ranks top-five in the conference in passing yards.
The Razorback pass defense gave Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral by far his worst performance of the season. Corral could only produce 200 yards on 20 of 38 pass attempts with two touchdowns and six interceptions.
Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond performed better. The difference between Mond and Corral was that Mond was able to complement his team’s ground game.
But pass-first Florida isn’t going to do what the Aggies did, which is wear down the Razorback defense with a physical and grinding ground game.
More crucially, safety Jalen Catalon was ejected in the first quarter of that game against the Aggies.
Catalon is the Razorbacks’ most important piece of their secondary.
He is a ball hawk with two interceptions and two passes defensed thus far. He also makes his presence felt everywhere on the field.
His 12 tackles in the team’s last game, against Tennessee, helped him earn SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors.
Arkansas Offense vs. Florida Defense
Anybody who says that Florida’s defense played well against Georgia did not watch the game.
The Gators left sundry pass-catching targets open everywhere and often far downfield. Georgia alternated quarterbacks in this game because it could not find one who possessed sufficient accuracy as a passer to take advantage of the opportunities offered by Florida’s incessant coverage errors.
Before facing Georgia’s sad combination of quarterbacks, the Gators had ranked almost last-place in pass defense as measured by opposing pass yards per game. Even now, they rank 97th nationally.
Enter Razorback quarterback Feleipe Franks, who’s having his best season with a 67.2 percent completion rate and a 14-to-three touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Franks is going to hit his open targets and he’s not going to make bad mistakes. He looks to be especially good as he returns to the Swamp where he’ll look to play inspired against the team that he used to start for.
Florida ranks outside the top 100 in terms of coverage and tackling. In turn, Arkansas has the weapons at wide receiver to exploit these deficiencies.
More specifically, the Gator linebackers often struggle in sideline-to-sideline pursuit. So expect the Razorbacks to make full use of the speed, explosiveness, and dynamic quality of Treylon Burks.
Burks is dangerous whenever he gets the ball and he’ll get the ball either by lining up as a wide receiver or by positioning himself in the backfield. When he runs, he’s averaging 6.4 YPC after contact, which proves that he is unique in college football.
But the Razorbacks also enjoy depth at wide receiver with big-play candidates like Mike Woods and De’Vion Warren, both of whom can generate 50+ yards on a single play or 100+ yards in a singe game.
The Situation
After earning a huge and rare win against rival, top-five Georgia, Florida enters Saturday’s contest as an obvious let-down candidate against a heavy underdog.
Under Dan Mullen, Florida had beaten one top-five team before defeating Georgia. This other win — against LSU — happened in 2018. In the following game, the Gators fell behind 21-3 to lowly Vanderbilt. Expect another slow Gator start on Saturday.
Also in general, oddsmakers are struggling to account for how much improved the Razorbacks are this season. They are currently 6-0 ATS.
Best Bet: Razorbacks First-Half +10 at -109 Odds with GTBets
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 14, 2020 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida
Kyle Pitts
Florida is a pass-first team. It owns the nation’s 13th-highest pass play percentage.
Quarterback Kyle Trask’s favorite target is his tight end, Kyle Pitts.
Gator backers should worry because Pitts is still listed as ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s game.
Against Georgia, Pitts took a tremendous hit while attempting to hold onto a pass despite the locomotive-like force of a Georgia defender.
The player who hit Pitts was ejected from the game for targeting. But the damage was done. Pitts suffered a concussion and so could not return to the game.
Currently, Pitts has 75 more receiving yards than any other Gator pass-catcher. He also leads the pass-catching crew in touchdowns with eight.
Among Gator pass-catchers who have caught at least 10 passes, he leads with 17.3 YPC.
Pitts is the Gator version of Raider tight end Darren Waller. He is well-sized at 6-6, but also extremely athletic.
His size doesn’t just help him in the end zone. But he becomes a reliably easy target to find when Trask needs to get rid of the ball in a hurry. Arkansas loves to blitz, so this last point is relatively important.
He has great body control at the point of attack. His immeasurable vertical ability makes him a deep threat. Even when he isn’t making Waller-like acrobatic grabs, he has reliable hands.
When Trask was injured, Florida’s offense stalled in terms of scoring and suffered. In the second half without Pitts, the Gators could only muster six points
After losing four wide receivers to the NFL, Florida’s pass-catching crew becomes rather bare without Pitts.
To be clear, whether Pitts plays or not should not influence whether you bet on the Razorbacks. But his absence should motivate you to increase your wager size.
Arkansas Pass Defense
Kyle Trask will be the third quarterback this season that Arkansas faces who ranks top-five in the conference in passing yards.
The Razorback pass defense gave Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral by far his worst performance of the season. Corral could only produce 200 yards on 20 of 38 pass attempts with two touchdowns and six interceptions.
Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond performed better. The difference between Mond and Corral was that Mond was able to complement his team’s ground game.
But pass-first Florida isn’t going to do what the Aggies did, which is wear down the Razorback defense with a physical and grinding ground game.
More crucially, safety Jalen Catalon was ejected in the first quarter of that game against the Aggies.
Catalon is the Razorbacks’ most important piece of their secondary.
He is a ball hawk with two interceptions and two passes defensed thus far. He also makes his presence felt everywhere on the field.
His 12 tackles in the team’s last game, against Tennessee, helped him earn SEC Defensive Player of the Week honors.
Arkansas Offense vs. Florida Defense
Anybody who says that Florida’s defense played well against Georgia did not watch the game.
The Gators left sundry pass-catching targets open everywhere and often far downfield. Georgia alternated quarterbacks in this game because it could not find one who possessed sufficient accuracy as a passer to take advantage of the opportunities offered by Florida’s incessant coverage errors.
Before facing Georgia’s sad combination of quarterbacks, the Gators had ranked almost last-place in pass defense as measured by opposing pass yards per game. Even now, they rank 97th nationally.
Enter Razorback quarterback Feleipe Franks, who’s having his best season with a 67.2 percent completion rate and a 14-to-three touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Franks is going to hit his open targets and he’s not going to make bad mistakes. He looks to be especially good as he returns to the Swamp where he’ll look to play inspired against the team that he used to start for.
Florida ranks outside the top 100 in terms of coverage and tackling. In turn, Arkansas has the weapons at wide receiver to exploit these deficiencies.
More specifically, the Gator linebackers often struggle in sideline-to-sideline pursuit. So expect the Razorbacks to make full use of the speed, explosiveness, and dynamic quality of Treylon Burks.
Burks is dangerous whenever he gets the ball and he’ll get the ball either by lining up as a wide receiver or by positioning himself in the backfield. When he runs, he’s averaging 6.4 YPC after contact, which proves that he is unique in college football.
But the Razorbacks also enjoy depth at wide receiver with big-play candidates like Mike Woods and De’Vion Warren, both of whom can generate 50+ yards on a single play or 100+ yards in a singe game.
The Situation
After earning a huge and rare win against rival, top-five Georgia, Florida enters Saturday’s contest as an obvious let-down candidate against a heavy underdog.
Under Dan Mullen, Florida had beaten one top-five team before defeating Georgia. This other win — against LSU — happened in 2018. In the following game, the Gators fell behind 21-3 to lowly Vanderbilt. Expect another slow Gator start on Saturday.
Also in general, oddsmakers are struggling to account for how much improved the Razorbacks are this season. They are currently 6-0 ATS.
Best Bet: Razorbacks First-Half +10 at -109 Odds with GTBets
