Arkansas State vs. Appalachian State: Week 8 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Thursday, October 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina
App State Is Back
Coronavirus-induced circumstances led multiple App State games to be postponed.
This team’s last game took place on September 26 when it faced Campbell, which was its third opponent of the season.
But there are good news which indicate that App State will be well-prepared — in addition to being fresh — for its game on Thursday.
Last Wednesday, the Mountaineers were cleared to practice in full. On that day, they began practicing all together as a team as opposed to in small groups.
App State Ground Game vs. Arkansas State Run Defense
While, based on run-play percentage, the Mountaineers like to keep the ball on the ground, they remain a high-scoring team.
In their wins so far this season, the Mountaineers scored a combined total of 87 points. In all of last year, they ranked ninth nationally in averaging 38.5 points per game.
So it wouldn’t be fair to cite App State’s emphasis on the run as a reason for doubting its capacity to score sufficiently.
The two are very much connected — App State’s air attack depends at least in part on its ability to establish the run.
This connection is apparent in the team’s preferred play-calling. Expect the Mountaineers to establish the run and then to execute a bevy of bootleg and play-action passing attempts in order to exploit the Red Wolves’ defense.
In order to establish the run, the Mountaineers like to rely on a committee of running backs.
Daetrich Harrington currently leads the group with 301 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC.
It would be great if Marcus Williams plays. Thanks largely to a 117-yard rushing effort in the team’s opener against Charlotte, he’s one of the other three Mountaineer running backs who average over six YPC.
So there are plenty of options in App State’s backfield for the team to rely on.
They enjoy superb run-blocking, thanks to which it doesn’t really matter who the Mountaineers feature in their backfield.
Their offensive line was expected to be and is a strength for this year’s offense. It returned four players from last year including an All-Sun Belt first-teamer plus two conference second-teamers.
They will thrive against a Red Wolves defense that ranks 112th in allowing 201 rushing yards per game.
Passing Offenses Compared
While App State loves to run the ball, it accumulates reliably large plays in the passing game in addition to those on the ground.
Currently, the Mountaineers rank 25th in yards per completion after ranking top-half in the category last season.
They feature a wide receiving corps that is too loaded to miss any single player.
Most notably, Thomas Hennigan leads the crew in terms of receptions, yards, and yards per catch.
Hennigan is noted particularly for his speed which he can combine with his size at 6-1 to become redoubtable vertically. He and quarterback Zac Thomas reliably stretch opposing defenses downfield.
Arkansas State’s pass defense is soft. It ranks 118th in allowing 299.8 passing yards per game.
The thing is that it doesn’t seem to matter who the Red Wolves play.
They repeatedly allow opposing quarterbacks to have their biggest performance of the season when facing them. Examples include the Coastal Carolina and Georgia State passing attacks, each of which allowed its offense to eclipse 50 points.
Unlike the Mountaineers, the Red Wolves struggle offensively to avoid one-dimensionality. They own the nation’s fourth-highest pass play percentage.
This reliance on passing is important because it means that the Red Wolves lack the stylistic inclination to exploit App State’s newfound weakness at linebacker, which was created by offseason departures.
Instead, they’ll confront the formidable Mountaineer cornerbacks.
The Red Wolves rely strongly on one pass-catcher, Jonathan Adams Jr., who has 16 more receptions than the team’s second-best pass-catcher.
Adams Jr., though, will likely contend with All-Sun Belt first-teamer Shaun Jolly. Last year, he picked off five passes and batted down eight.
Demetrius Taylor will also have a big game for the Mountaineers. After accruing seven sacks last season, he gets to ravage an Arkansas State offensive line that ranks 96th in pass protection as measured by sack rate allowed.
The Verdict
10 points seem like a lot. But it really isn’t so great a deficit in a higher-scoring contest.
Expect App State to cover with its two-dimensional offense keeping the Red Wolves off-balance.
Particularly with their strength at cornerback, the Mountaineers will limit Arkansas State’s weapons in its passing game to a degree that cannot be matched by Arkansas State’s porous secondary.
Plus, App State can exaggerate its pass rushing prowess against a team that it expects to pass so frequently.
Best Bet: Mountaineers -10 at -108 with Heritage
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Thursday, October 22 at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina
App State Is Back
Coronavirus-induced circumstances led multiple App State games to be postponed.
This team’s last game took place on September 26 when it faced Campbell, which was its third opponent of the season.
But there are good news which indicate that App State will be well-prepared — in addition to being fresh — for its game on Thursday.
Last Wednesday, the Mountaineers were cleared to practice in full. On that day, they began practicing all together as a team as opposed to in small groups.
App State Ground Game vs. Arkansas State Run Defense
While, based on run-play percentage, the Mountaineers like to keep the ball on the ground, they remain a high-scoring team.
In their wins so far this season, the Mountaineers scored a combined total of 87 points. In all of last year, they ranked ninth nationally in averaging 38.5 points per game.
So it wouldn’t be fair to cite App State’s emphasis on the run as a reason for doubting its capacity to score sufficiently.
The two are very much connected — App State’s air attack depends at least in part on its ability to establish the run.
This connection is apparent in the team’s preferred play-calling. Expect the Mountaineers to establish the run and then to execute a bevy of bootleg and play-action passing attempts in order to exploit the Red Wolves’ defense.
In order to establish the run, the Mountaineers like to rely on a committee of running backs.
Daetrich Harrington currently leads the group with 301 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC.
It would be great if Marcus Williams plays. Thanks largely to a 117-yard rushing effort in the team’s opener against Charlotte, he’s one of the other three Mountaineer running backs who average over six YPC.
So there are plenty of options in App State’s backfield for the team to rely on.
They enjoy superb run-blocking, thanks to which it doesn’t really matter who the Mountaineers feature in their backfield.
Their offensive line was expected to be and is a strength for this year’s offense. It returned four players from last year including an All-Sun Belt first-teamer plus two conference second-teamers.
They will thrive against a Red Wolves defense that ranks 112th in allowing 201 rushing yards per game.
Passing Offenses Compared
While App State loves to run the ball, it accumulates reliably large plays in the passing game in addition to those on the ground.
Currently, the Mountaineers rank 25th in yards per completion after ranking top-half in the category last season.
They feature a wide receiving corps that is too loaded to miss any single player.
Most notably, Thomas Hennigan leads the crew in terms of receptions, yards, and yards per catch.
Hennigan is noted particularly for his speed which he can combine with his size at 6-1 to become redoubtable vertically. He and quarterback Zac Thomas reliably stretch opposing defenses downfield.
Arkansas State’s pass defense is soft. It ranks 118th in allowing 299.8 passing yards per game.
The thing is that it doesn’t seem to matter who the Red Wolves play.
They repeatedly allow opposing quarterbacks to have their biggest performance of the season when facing them. Examples include the Coastal Carolina and Georgia State passing attacks, each of which allowed its offense to eclipse 50 points.
Unlike the Mountaineers, the Red Wolves struggle offensively to avoid one-dimensionality. They own the nation’s fourth-highest pass play percentage.
This reliance on passing is important because it means that the Red Wolves lack the stylistic inclination to exploit App State’s newfound weakness at linebacker, which was created by offseason departures.
Instead, they’ll confront the formidable Mountaineer cornerbacks.
The Red Wolves rely strongly on one pass-catcher, Jonathan Adams Jr., who has 16 more receptions than the team’s second-best pass-catcher.
Adams Jr., though, will likely contend with All-Sun Belt first-teamer Shaun Jolly. Last year, he picked off five passes and batted down eight.
Demetrius Taylor will also have a big game for the Mountaineers. After accruing seven sacks last season, he gets to ravage an Arkansas State offensive line that ranks 96th in pass protection as measured by sack rate allowed.
The Verdict
10 points seem like a lot. But it really isn’t so great a deficit in a higher-scoring contest.
Expect App State to cover with its two-dimensional offense keeping the Red Wolves off-balance.
Particularly with their strength at cornerback, the Mountaineers will limit Arkansas State’s weapons in its passing game to a degree that cannot be matched by Arkansas State’s porous secondary.
Plus, App State can exaggerate its pass rushing prowess against a team that it expects to pass so frequently.
Best Bet: Mountaineers -10 at -108 with Heritage
