NCAA Football Week 12 Parlay Plays for Saturday
LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 21, 2020 at noon ET (SEC Network) at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas
Arkansas Defense
Arkansas’ defense is struggling against teams who can run the ball.
In particular, the Razorback front seven is undersized. It struggles with the physicality that opposing run-blocking units tend to bring.
So there are games where Arkansas has matched up well with opposing offenses.
It matched up well, for example, with a Mississippi State offense that wants to pass the ball in its air-raid offense.
It also matched up well with a Tennessee offense that ran the ball 50 times, but had zero passing competence with which to take a semblance of pressure off of its running game. Tennessee ended up using three different quarterbacks in that game.
LSU Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
LSU enjoys a physical offensive line that aptly knocks opposing run defenders off the ball.
It will control the trenches against a Razorback defense that ranks 82nd nationally in allowing 183.4 yards per game.
Now, the Tiger offense doesn’t show a good ground game on paper. But it also doesn’t get many opportunities in the SEC.
In its last game against Auburn, for example, LSU faced a stronger Auburn run defense. The game flow also did not permit many running opportunities. After falling behind, LSU had to focus on passing the ball.
LSU also didn’t run much in earlier-season games against Mississippi State and Missouri, both of which were high-scoring, back-and-forth-type games that featured a lot of passing.
But then the Tigers faced South Carolina and finally flexed their prowess on the ground, accruing 276 rushing yards en route to a 52-point effort.
This is the effort I expect against an Arkansas defense which LSU will have seen on film multiple teams like Texas A&M out-physical by utilizing a strong ground game.
Arkansas Offense vs. LSU Defense
Arkansas can match LSU’s scoring impetus because the Tiger pass defense under new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini has been helpless.
After allowing normally inefficient Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to accrue 300 passing yards, the Tigers rank 127th nationally in pass defense as measured by opposing passing yards per game.
Razorback quarterback Feleipe Franks is enjoying the best full season of his career by just about any statistical measure.
He enjoys a bevy of solid targets who are always capable of making big plays.
Treylon Burks is a versatile weapon who the team will also employ in the backfield because he is so dangerous with the ball in his hands.
Burks leads the team with 34 receptions and 508 receiving yards. But, like Burks, Mike Woods and De’Vion Warren have accrued plays of over 50 yards. They ably help the offense move downfield in a hurry.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, November 21, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois
The Total
Oddsmakers have posted a total that is extremely low.
The “under” is a popular play because bettors are not looking at the number, but simply expecting a low-scoring game because they perceive both teams as hard-nosed, physical teams and they expect this contest to be a defensive struggle.
But I want to point out that both teams are capable of putting up points. The Badgers have exceeded 40 points in both of their games so far. Northwestern has done that once and currently averages 28 points per game.
Passing The Ball
Wisconsin will want to pass the ball more because it faces Northwestern’s top-level run defense, which ranks 13th nationally in allowing 91.8 rushing yards per game.
Offenses know by now that their best chance of succeeding against the Wildcats exists through the air. For this reason, Northwestern allows the 129th-lowest pass-play percentage in the nation.
Quarterback Graham Mertz has attractive numbers so far. In two games, he’s thrown for 375 yards and seven touchdowns to zero interceptions.
Yes, Wisconsin’s two opponents were bottom-feeder Illinois and a losing Michigan squad whose secondary is reeling by losing its top cornerbacks as a result of offseason departures and opt-outs.
But Mertz’s numbers and his recruiting profile — he was a four-star recruit, the third-best pro-style quarterback in his class, and received offers from the likes of Alabama and Clemson — show competence.
Northwestern will need to keep up through the air. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey has several different targets that he likes to rely on in a spread-the defense-out type offense where he executes from shotgun formations.
The fact that he has averaged under seven YPA throughout his career may suggest that he has a weak arm, that he is only good for boring check-downs.
But he also averaged 8.2 YPA last year. Ramsey has the arm to stretch the field when he wants to. He has the chunk play ability also as a scrambler to help put up points in a relatively hurry.
Best Bet: Parlay LSU/Arkansas Over 63.5 at -108 & Wisconsin/Northwestern Over 44 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
LSU Tigers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 21, 2020 at noon ET (SEC Network) at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, Arkansas
Arkansas Defense
Arkansas’ defense is struggling against teams who can run the ball.
In particular, the Razorback front seven is undersized. It struggles with the physicality that opposing run-blocking units tend to bring.
So there are games where Arkansas has matched up well with opposing offenses.
It matched up well, for example, with a Mississippi State offense that wants to pass the ball in its air-raid offense.
It also matched up well with a Tennessee offense that ran the ball 50 times, but had zero passing competence with which to take a semblance of pressure off of its running game. Tennessee ended up using three different quarterbacks in that game.
LSU Offense vs. Arkansas Defense
LSU enjoys a physical offensive line that aptly knocks opposing run defenders off the ball.
It will control the trenches against a Razorback defense that ranks 82nd nationally in allowing 183.4 yards per game.
Now, the Tiger offense doesn’t show a good ground game on paper. But it also doesn’t get many opportunities in the SEC.
In its last game against Auburn, for example, LSU faced a stronger Auburn run defense. The game flow also did not permit many running opportunities. After falling behind, LSU had to focus on passing the ball.
LSU also didn’t run much in earlier-season games against Mississippi State and Missouri, both of which were high-scoring, back-and-forth-type games that featured a lot of passing.
But then the Tigers faced South Carolina and finally flexed their prowess on the ground, accruing 276 rushing yards en route to a 52-point effort.
This is the effort I expect against an Arkansas defense which LSU will have seen on film multiple teams like Texas A&M out-physical by utilizing a strong ground game.
Arkansas Offense vs. LSU Defense
Arkansas can match LSU’s scoring impetus because the Tiger pass defense under new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini has been helpless.
After allowing normally inefficient Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to accrue 300 passing yards, the Tigers rank 127th nationally in pass defense as measured by opposing passing yards per game.
Razorback quarterback Feleipe Franks is enjoying the best full season of his career by just about any statistical measure.
He enjoys a bevy of solid targets who are always capable of making big plays.
Treylon Burks is a versatile weapon who the team will also employ in the backfield because he is so dangerous with the ball in his hands.
Burks leads the team with 34 receptions and 508 receiving yards. But, like Burks, Mike Woods and De’Vion Warren have accrued plays of over 50 yards. They ably help the offense move downfield in a hurry.
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday, November 21, 2020 at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois
The Total
Oddsmakers have posted a total that is extremely low.
The “under” is a popular play because bettors are not looking at the number, but simply expecting a low-scoring game because they perceive both teams as hard-nosed, physical teams and they expect this contest to be a defensive struggle.
But I want to point out that both teams are capable of putting up points. The Badgers have exceeded 40 points in both of their games so far. Northwestern has done that once and currently averages 28 points per game.
Passing The Ball
Wisconsin will want to pass the ball more because it faces Northwestern’s top-level run defense, which ranks 13th nationally in allowing 91.8 rushing yards per game.
Offenses know by now that their best chance of succeeding against the Wildcats exists through the air. For this reason, Northwestern allows the 129th-lowest pass-play percentage in the nation.
Quarterback Graham Mertz has attractive numbers so far. In two games, he’s thrown for 375 yards and seven touchdowns to zero interceptions.
Yes, Wisconsin’s two opponents were bottom-feeder Illinois and a losing Michigan squad whose secondary is reeling by losing its top cornerbacks as a result of offseason departures and opt-outs.
But Mertz’s numbers and his recruiting profile — he was a four-star recruit, the third-best pro-style quarterback in his class, and received offers from the likes of Alabama and Clemson — show competence.
Northwestern will need to keep up through the air. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey has several different targets that he likes to rely on in a spread-the defense-out type offense where he executes from shotgun formations.
The fact that he has averaged under seven YPA throughout his career may suggest that he has a weak arm, that he is only good for boring check-downs.
But he also averaged 8.2 YPA last year. Ramsey has the arm to stretch the field when he wants to. He has the chunk play ability also as a scrambler to help put up points in a relatively hurry.
Best Bet: Parlay LSU/Arkansas Over 63.5 at -108 & Wisconsin/Northwestern Over 44 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
