MLB Parlay for April 21: A Bet That Pays (+330)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Zach Davies' Velocity
Arizona starter Zach Davies is in a promising spot today because of the velocity bump that he experienced in his opening start.
His average pitch velocity only shows a slight improvement relative to last year's numbers because his velocity went down in his second start.
Another uptick in Davies' pitch velocity today in his third start will only help him out.
Davies' Sinker
To be specific, in his opening start, his sinker increased nearly two mph relative to what it averaged all of last season.
This improvement in his sinker velo is meaningful because it is his favorite pitch.
He throws his sinker with 56.1-percent frequency. As a result, what he wants to do in a game largely involves this pitch.
Davies is great at inducing ground balls. So far this season, he induces ground balls with 52.9-percent frequency.
The sinker is a classic ground ball-inducing pitch as batters tend to hit the top of it, so that it stays on the ground.
Place
Davies has built a nice history in Nationals Park. In his career here, he is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA.
Location, however, does not seem to matter to Washington.
The Nats rank second-to-last in runs per game at home. In their home ballpark, they are mustering 2.43 runs per game.
Batters
For the Nats' lineup, Josh Bell has been a rare bright spot.
However, his career track record against Davies is so bad.
Bell is batting 2-of-18 (.111) lifetime against Davies. He has three times as many strikeouts as hits with Davies on the mound.
Problematically, Bell is the only regular National batter slugging over .400.
Without dangerous options besides Bell, Washington will not have nearly enough firepower.
Josh Rogers
Nationals starter Josh Rogers finally gets to pitch at home where, last year, he thrived against subpar competition like Miami.
Arizona's lineup certainly qualifies as subpar given the fact that it ranks 29thin averaging 2.75 runs per game.
Rogers won't have to do much to succeed today, but he has plenty of things in his favor.
For example, he gladly favors an effective fastball that, like his other pitches, he ably locates along the edges of the plate, as heat maps show.
Opponents are batting .200 against the fastball, which is his favorite pitch.
Lefties
Arizona's lineup is in a terrible spot today because Rogers is a lefty.
The Diamondbacks easily rank last-place in slugging .176 against left-handed pitchers.
To be clear, .176 would still be atrocious even if it were a batting average.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Marco Gonzales
I think it's a good thing for Texas that Mariner starter Marco Gonzales is coming off a strong start because he rarely performs twice in a row as catastrophically as he did in his opening start.
As that opening start showed, he is often somebody who struggles to miss bats.
The frequency with which opposing batters have hit his pitches hard explains the very high xSLG (expected slugging rate) that his pitches are yielding.
Ranger Batters
Texas' lineup matches up superbly against Gonzales because it ranks fourth in slugging .513 against lefties and Gonzales is a lefty.
One typically overlooked batter worth watching out for is Nick Solak.
He's been great about bouncing back after tough performances and he's in a great bounce-back spot since he's slugging .800 against lefties.
Like Solak, Charlie Culberson has great numbers in his career with Gonzales on the mound.
Culberson is 6-for-11 with a triple and a homer against Gonzales.
Mariners vs. Lefty
Seattle has struggled all year against lefties. It ranks 20thin slugging .304 against them.
Left-handed starting pitcher Taylor Hearn is thus in a good spot for Texas.
He's yielded an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), but his 1.64 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) suggests that he's been pitching massively better than his ERA suggests.
The Verdict
Expect little scoring between Washington and Arizona while Texas' supremacy against lefties help it upset Seattle.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks/Nationals Under 9 at -115 & Rangers ML at +130 at +330 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park in Washington D.C.
Zach Davies' Velocity
Arizona starter Zach Davies is in a promising spot today because of the velocity bump that he experienced in his opening start.
His average pitch velocity only shows a slight improvement relative to last year's numbers because his velocity went down in his second start.
Another uptick in Davies' pitch velocity today in his third start will only help him out.
Davies' Sinker
To be specific, in his opening start, his sinker increased nearly two mph relative to what it averaged all of last season.
This improvement in his sinker velo is meaningful because it is his favorite pitch.
He throws his sinker with 56.1-percent frequency. As a result, what he wants to do in a game largely involves this pitch.
Davies is great at inducing ground balls. So far this season, he induces ground balls with 52.9-percent frequency.
The sinker is a classic ground ball-inducing pitch as batters tend to hit the top of it, so that it stays on the ground.
Place
Davies has built a nice history in Nationals Park. In his career here, he is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA.
Location, however, does not seem to matter to Washington.
The Nats rank second-to-last in runs per game at home. In their home ballpark, they are mustering 2.43 runs per game.
Batters
For the Nats' lineup, Josh Bell has been a rare bright spot.
However, his career track record against Davies is so bad.
Bell is batting 2-of-18 (.111) lifetime against Davies. He has three times as many strikeouts as hits with Davies on the mound.
Problematically, Bell is the only regular National batter slugging over .400.
Without dangerous options besides Bell, Washington will not have nearly enough firepower.
Josh Rogers
Nationals starter Josh Rogers finally gets to pitch at home where, last year, he thrived against subpar competition like Miami.
Arizona's lineup certainly qualifies as subpar given the fact that it ranks 29thin averaging 2.75 runs per game.
Rogers won't have to do much to succeed today, but he has plenty of things in his favor.
For example, he gladly favors an effective fastball that, like his other pitches, he ably locates along the edges of the plate, as heat maps show.
Opponents are batting .200 against the fastball, which is his favorite pitch.
Lefties
Arizona's lineup is in a terrible spot today because Rogers is a lefty.
The Diamondbacks easily rank last-place in slugging .176 against left-handed pitchers.
To be clear, .176 would still be atrocious even if it were a batting average.
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, April 21, 2022 at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle
Marco Gonzales
I think it's a good thing for Texas that Mariner starter Marco Gonzales is coming off a strong start because he rarely performs twice in a row as catastrophically as he did in his opening start.
As that opening start showed, he is often somebody who struggles to miss bats.
The frequency with which opposing batters have hit his pitches hard explains the very high xSLG (expected slugging rate) that his pitches are yielding.
Ranger Batters
Texas' lineup matches up superbly against Gonzales because it ranks fourth in slugging .513 against lefties and Gonzales is a lefty.
One typically overlooked batter worth watching out for is Nick Solak.
He's been great about bouncing back after tough performances and he's in a great bounce-back spot since he's slugging .800 against lefties.
Like Solak, Charlie Culberson has great numbers in his career with Gonzales on the mound.
Culberson is 6-for-11 with a triple and a homer against Gonzales.
Mariners vs. Lefty
Seattle has struggled all year against lefties. It ranks 20thin slugging .304 against them.
Left-handed starting pitcher Taylor Hearn is thus in a good spot for Texas.
He's yielded an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play), but his 1.64 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) suggests that he's been pitching massively better than his ERA suggests.
The Verdict
Expect little scoring between Washington and Arizona while Texas' supremacy against lefties help it upset Seattle.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks/Nationals Under 9 at -115 & Rangers ML at +130 at +330 with BetOnline
