Arizona vs. Utah College Football Week 5 Betting Picks
Arizona Wildcats vs. Utah Utes
Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 10:15 p.m. ET at Rice-Eccles Stadium
The Revenge Angle
Utah is in a great spot for this game because it is seeking revenge for last year.
Not only did the Utes lose last year's matchup, but Arizona also ran up the score on them.
With just over 30 seconds remaining in the game, and with Arizona up by 17 points, the Wildcats possessed the ball and decided to throw a bomb downfield for another touchdown.
It is considered disrespectful to treat your opponent in this way, so a proud group like Utah is going to remember last year's game with a special degree of bitterness.
Recent Revenge Examples
But Utah's head coach also just in general excels at achieving revenge.
Let's look at the last couple of years for examples.
In 2021, Utah lost to San Diego State 33-31 in triple overtime. In 2022, Utah beat San Diego State by 28 points.
Also in 2021, the Utes lost to Oregon State by eight. In 2022, they beat Oregon State by 26.
In 2022, the Utes lost to Florida by three. Last year, they beat Florida by 13.
Also in 2022, they lost to UCLA by 10. Last year, they beat the Bruins by seven.
There is one exception: Utah failed last year to avenge its loss, in 2022, to Oregon. But this exception is meaningless because Oregon, quite unlike Arizona right now, was a playoff-caliber team.
Against beatable teams, Utah reliably achieves revenge.
Arizona's Last Game
In its last game, a 31-7 loss to Kansas State, Arizona sure looked like a beatable team.
The Wildcats had won their first two games, being favored by at least four touchdowns in both of them.
Kansas State, however, was favored. In its first game against a difficult opponent, Arizona completely folded.
The purple Wildcats blew out Arizona, exposing the latter's weaknesses.
My argument will be that Utah, in addition to being extra motivated for this game after last year's catastrophe, is well-equipped to exploit those weaknesses.
Weakness Number One: Mobile Quarterbacks
From the first game of its season onward, Arizona has struggled mightily against mobile, or dual-threat quarterbacks.
Despite being heavily favored against New Mexico, the Wildcats conceded 39 points.
New Mexico's quarterback threw three touchdowns and amassed 130 rushing yards.
Most recently, Arizona lost to a Kansas State team whose mobile quarterback threw two touchdowns and ran for 110 yards.
Cam Rising/Isaac Wilson
Utah will dominate offensively with its mobile quarterback.
Cam Rising was a game-time decision with his hand injury for Utah's last game, so one would imagine that, if he was nearly ready then, then he'll be ready to play against Arizona.
Rising is a proven dual-threat quarterback. He is an efficient passer who has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions so far this season.
In his career, he is averaging just over six YPC.
If Rising can't go, Wilson will be ready to be effective.
With his mix of running and passing, Wilson led the Utes to a tough road victory at ranked Oklahoma State.
Weakness Number Two: Running Backs
Arizona is also vulnerable to strong rush attacks in general.
So far, the Wildcats rank 111th in rush defense. They're allowing well over 200 rushing yards per game.
Their run defense is so bad because their front seven is feeble.
The defensive line struggles to control the line of scrimmage.
Both their defensive linemen and their linebackers miss a lot of tackles.
None of this should be a surprise. While Arizona's defensive line was deep last year, it lost a tremendous amount of depth in the offseason.
There is one linebacker of notable quality and that's it.
The personnel are simply weak.
Utah Is Run-Heavy
Utah is well-built to dominate Arizona because Arizona is weak against the run and the Utes love to run.
So far, Utah owns the 33rd-highest rush-play percentage.
The Utes rank 27th in rushing yards, averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game.
They are led by running back Micah Bernard, who is averaging 6.7 YPC after he exceeded 180 rushing yards against Oklahoma State.
With Bernard and with Rising or Wilson, Utah has the pieces to thrive offensively.
Why Arizona's Defense Has Declined
For Arizona, last year's defensive coordinator moved onto a stronger job.
Johnny Nansen was so good at coming up with game plans and at getting his players to practice executing them during the week.
HIs loss is irreplaceable: nobody who was under him last year could do his job.
Yet, when Nansen went to Texas, Arizona promoted its analyst from last year to the defensive coordinator position.
Wildcats players swarmed to the transfer portal because they knew that the defense after Nansen would decline.
Arizona's Hope on Offense
On the other side, the Wildcats will not want to rely on their rush attack.
They rank 80th in rushing yards per game.
While 80th might not sound that atrocious, recall that their first two opponents were dogged by at least four touchdowns: New Mexico, the first of those opponents, ranks 124th in rush defense after allowing 268 rushing yards to Auburn; Northern Arizona, the other opponent, is an FCS school.
In its last game, Arizona mustered 56 rushing yards against Kansas State, which ranks similarly to Utah in rush defense after Utah most recently held star Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II to fewer than four YPC.
Instead of running the ball, Arizona is going to want to rely on throwing the ball.
Its two best players on offense are at the quarterback and wide receiver positions.
Utah's Pass Defense
The Utes match up well against Arizona because their pass defense is excellent.
Quarterbacks repeatedly struggle against them.
In their win over Oklahoma State, Cowboys quarterback Alan Bowman suffered season-worsts in yardage and completion percentage.
Utah is one of the few teams that are holding opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage below 50.
Arizona really has only one dangerous wide receiver — Tetairoa McMillan, who has more than 300 yards than any other wide receiver on his team — and yet on Saturday he won't be able to rely on his characteristic height advantage.
McMillan likes to tower over opposing cornerbacks, yet Utah's Zemaiah Vaughn is extremely tall and lengthy.
During his career, we have already seen the All-Pac-12 selection Vaughn use his height and length, as well as his speed and physicality, against other tall and talented wide receivers, such as current Chicago Bear Rome Odunze.
Utah's Pass Rush
Of course, Arizona will struggle just to attempt passes.
The Utes boast a nasty pass-rushing duo, Connor O'Toole and Van Fillinger.
Both have combined for seven sacks so far.
Takeaway
Arizona has no edges against Utah.
The Wildcats will be one-dimensional, relying primarily on their pass attack.
Yet Utah has a strong pass defense bolstered by powerful pass rushers and strong coverage in the back.
Arizona has one good wide receiver, but Utah has a strong cornerback of its own to counter who has the length and other traits necessary to match up well against him.
Whereas the Wildcats will struggle to sustain drives with their ineffective rush attack and their too easily stoppable pass attack, Utah will easily score a lot of points.
The Utes will be effective through the air against an Arizona defense that struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
With their mobile quarterback and Micah Bernard at running back, the Utes will blow past 200 yards on the ground, which will lead to many touchdowns.
Especially given their desire for revenge and their aptitude for achieving it, the Utes will score at least five touchdowns in what will be a blowout.
Best Bet: Utah -9.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Arizona Wildcats vs. Utah Utes
Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 10:15 p.m. ET at Rice-Eccles Stadium
The Revenge Angle
Utah is in a great spot for this game because it is seeking revenge for last year.
Not only did the Utes lose last year's matchup, but Arizona also ran up the score on them.
With just over 30 seconds remaining in the game, and with Arizona up by 17 points, the Wildcats possessed the ball and decided to throw a bomb downfield for another touchdown.
It is considered disrespectful to treat your opponent in this way, so a proud group like Utah is going to remember last year's game with a special degree of bitterness.
Recent Revenge Examples
But Utah's head coach also just in general excels at achieving revenge.
Let's look at the last couple of years for examples.
In 2021, Utah lost to San Diego State 33-31 in triple overtime. In 2022, Utah beat San Diego State by 28 points.
Also in 2021, the Utes lost to Oregon State by eight. In 2022, they beat Oregon State by 26.
In 2022, the Utes lost to Florida by three. Last year, they beat Florida by 13.
Also in 2022, they lost to UCLA by 10. Last year, they beat the Bruins by seven.
There is one exception: Utah failed last year to avenge its loss, in 2022, to Oregon. But this exception is meaningless because Oregon, quite unlike Arizona right now, was a playoff-caliber team.
Against beatable teams, Utah reliably achieves revenge.
Arizona's Last Game
In its last game, a 31-7 loss to Kansas State, Arizona sure looked like a beatable team.
The Wildcats had won their first two games, being favored by at least four touchdowns in both of them.
Kansas State, however, was favored. In its first game against a difficult opponent, Arizona completely folded.
The purple Wildcats blew out Arizona, exposing the latter's weaknesses.
My argument will be that Utah, in addition to being extra motivated for this game after last year's catastrophe, is well-equipped to exploit those weaknesses.
Weakness Number One: Mobile Quarterbacks
From the first game of its season onward, Arizona has struggled mightily against mobile, or dual-threat quarterbacks.
Despite being heavily favored against New Mexico, the Wildcats conceded 39 points.
New Mexico's quarterback threw three touchdowns and amassed 130 rushing yards.
Most recently, Arizona lost to a Kansas State team whose mobile quarterback threw two touchdowns and ran for 110 yards.
Cam Rising/Isaac Wilson
Utah will dominate offensively with its mobile quarterback.
Cam Rising was a game-time decision with his hand injury for Utah's last game, so one would imagine that, if he was nearly ready then, then he'll be ready to play against Arizona.
Rising is a proven dual-threat quarterback. He is an efficient passer who has thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions so far this season.
In his career, he is averaging just over six YPC.
If Rising can't go, Wilson will be ready to be effective.
With his mix of running and passing, Wilson led the Utes to a tough road victory at ranked Oklahoma State.
Weakness Number Two: Running Backs
Arizona is also vulnerable to strong rush attacks in general.
So far, the Wildcats rank 111th in rush defense. They're allowing well over 200 rushing yards per game.
Their run defense is so bad because their front seven is feeble.
The defensive line struggles to control the line of scrimmage.
Both their defensive linemen and their linebackers miss a lot of tackles.
None of this should be a surprise. While Arizona's defensive line was deep last year, it lost a tremendous amount of depth in the offseason.
There is one linebacker of notable quality and that's it.
The personnel are simply weak.
Utah Is Run-Heavy
Utah is well-built to dominate Arizona because Arizona is weak against the run and the Utes love to run.
So far, Utah owns the 33rd-highest rush-play percentage.
The Utes rank 27th in rushing yards, averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game.
They are led by running back Micah Bernard, who is averaging 6.7 YPC after he exceeded 180 rushing yards against Oklahoma State.
With Bernard and with Rising or Wilson, Utah has the pieces to thrive offensively.
Why Arizona's Defense Has Declined
For Arizona, last year's defensive coordinator moved onto a stronger job.
Johnny Nansen was so good at coming up with game plans and at getting his players to practice executing them during the week.
HIs loss is irreplaceable: nobody who was under him last year could do his job.
Yet, when Nansen went to Texas, Arizona promoted its analyst from last year to the defensive coordinator position.
Wildcats players swarmed to the transfer portal because they knew that the defense after Nansen would decline.
Arizona's Hope on Offense
On the other side, the Wildcats will not want to rely on their rush attack.
They rank 80th in rushing yards per game.
While 80th might not sound that atrocious, recall that their first two opponents were dogged by at least four touchdowns: New Mexico, the first of those opponents, ranks 124th in rush defense after allowing 268 rushing yards to Auburn; Northern Arizona, the other opponent, is an FCS school.
In its last game, Arizona mustered 56 rushing yards against Kansas State, which ranks similarly to Utah in rush defense after Utah most recently held star Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II to fewer than four YPC.
Instead of running the ball, Arizona is going to want to rely on throwing the ball.
Its two best players on offense are at the quarterback and wide receiver positions.
Utah's Pass Defense
The Utes match up well against Arizona because their pass defense is excellent.
Quarterbacks repeatedly struggle against them.
In their win over Oklahoma State, Cowboys quarterback Alan Bowman suffered season-worsts in yardage and completion percentage.
Utah is one of the few teams that are holding opposing quarterbacks to a completion percentage below 50.
Arizona really has only one dangerous wide receiver — Tetairoa McMillan, who has more than 300 yards than any other wide receiver on his team — and yet on Saturday he won't be able to rely on his characteristic height advantage.
McMillan likes to tower over opposing cornerbacks, yet Utah's Zemaiah Vaughn is extremely tall and lengthy.
During his career, we have already seen the All-Pac-12 selection Vaughn use his height and length, as well as his speed and physicality, against other tall and talented wide receivers, such as current Chicago Bear Rome Odunze.
Utah's Pass Rush
Of course, Arizona will struggle just to attempt passes.
The Utes boast a nasty pass-rushing duo, Connor O'Toole and Van Fillinger.
Both have combined for seven sacks so far.
Takeaway
Arizona has no edges against Utah.
The Wildcats will be one-dimensional, relying primarily on their pass attack.
Yet Utah has a strong pass defense bolstered by powerful pass rushers and strong coverage in the back.
Arizona has one good wide receiver, but Utah has a strong cornerback of its own to counter who has the length and other traits necessary to match up well against him.
Whereas the Wildcats will struggle to sustain drives with their ineffective rush attack and their too easily stoppable pass attack, Utah will easily score a lot of points.
The Utes will be effective through the air against an Arizona defense that struggles against mobile quarterbacks.
With their mobile quarterback and Micah Bernard at running back, the Utes will blow past 200 yards on the ground, which will lead to many touchdowns.
Especially given their desire for revenge and their aptitude for achieving it, the Utes will score at least five touchdowns in what will be a blowout.
Best Bet: Utah -9.5 at -110 with BetOnline
