Scoring Won’t Come Easy for Phillies or Diamondbacks on Tuesday
Arizona hosts Philadelphia on Tuesday at 9:40 ET. In a battle of youth versus experience, Philly’s starting pitcher Nick Pivetta will keep pace with Arizona’s five-time All-Star Zack Greinke.
Phillies at Diamondbacks
MLB Pick: Under
Philadelphia’s Nick Pivetta's (6-9, 4.75) ERA is misleading because of bad luck, namely a .339 opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play), despite inducing more soft contact and lower line drive and hard contact rates. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 3.58, 1.29 lower than last season. He’s achieving more strikeouts, while yielding fewer walks and homers. He’s inducing more chases on pitches outside the zone and more whiffs on pitches inside. Also, he’s staying ahead of the count, achieving a five percent higher first-pitch strike rate. Pivetta, shows fine form, achieving an FIP of 3.00 or under in two of his last three starts. He has a 35-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last four starts.
Last year, Pivetta threw his fastball 66% of the time. This year, his fastball is still his favorite pitch—he throws it with 52% frequency— but he’s also amped up his curveball and slider usage. Both pitches comprise 39% of his arsenal. His fastball is more effective because its velocity is higher and hitters are less able to sit on it because he’s sequencing his pitches more unpredictably. His curveball has improved the most. It benefits from a 15 mph velocity differential with his fastball that keeps hitters off-balance. Last season he threw more balls with it, but this season more strikes. He’s also able to vary its location, although he likes to keep it low, where it plays well off a high heater. Moreover, he’s added significantly more vertical and horizontal movement to it that makes it more elusive. He’s throwing it more frequently with two strikes and whiffing more batters with it.
Arizona ranks 23rd in slugging against Pivetta’s pitches. Based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares a team’s slugging rate with what it should be, Arizona is strongly overachieving against his breaking stuff. Diamondback batters will also struggle with his velocity. They rank 28th in slugging against the high-velo (94-99 mph) fastball.
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Diamondback Zack Greinke (12-6, 2.96 ERA) had a tough-luck loss last week, giving up only two runs, but not receiving run support. Greinke has yet to allow more than two runs in his first home start following a loss—this situation has occurred four times. Greinke faced Philadelphia once and struggled, but that was in April when he was having a rough start to the season. He’s showing great form, allowing two runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts.
Greinke throws his fastball with 43% frequency. He relies on its good location away from the middle and on creating similar horizontal and vertical release points to mask which pitch approaches the batter. He’s also excellent with pitch sequencing and will often work backwards and throw his fastball with two strikes in order to remain unpredictable. Greinke is also famous for his hard change-up, which averages three mph less than his fastball, as opposed to the usual seven or eight mph. It’s also elusive with its moderate arm-side movement.
His elite quality defies match-up considerations, especially at home, where his FIP is 2.82. For example, the Dodgers rank fifth in slugging against his three favorite pitches but he yielded a 0.83 FIP against them at home. Philly ranks 23rd in the category. Phillies batters are also slumping away from home, where they’ve scored ten runs in their last five games. Philly’s two BA leaders, Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco, are combined 3-for-20 (.150) in August.
In Philly’s bullpen, Pat Neshek is untouchable and Seranthony Dominguez and Victor Arano boast sub-2 ERA’s. For Arizona, former Ranger Jake Diekman has yielded only one run outside of Texas and T.J. McFarland hasn’t conceded in consecutive outings since June 4. Both bullpens will secure the „under."
Arizona hosts Philadelphia on Tuesday at 9:40 ET. In a battle of youth versus experience, Philly’s starting pitcher Nick Pivetta will keep pace with Arizona’s five-time All-Star Zack Greinke.
Phillies at Diamondbacks
MLB Pick: Under
Philadelphia’s Nick Pivetta's (6-9, 4.75) ERA is misleading because of bad luck, namely a .339 opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play), despite inducing more soft contact and lower line drive and hard contact rates. His FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) is 3.58, 1.29 lower than last season. He’s achieving more strikeouts, while yielding fewer walks and homers. He’s inducing more chases on pitches outside the zone and more whiffs on pitches inside. Also, he’s staying ahead of the count, achieving a five percent higher first-pitch strike rate. Pivetta, shows fine form, achieving an FIP of 3.00 or under in two of his last three starts. He has a 35-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last four starts.
Last year, Pivetta threw his fastball 66% of the time. This year, his fastball is still his favorite pitch—he throws it with 52% frequency— but he’s also amped up his curveball and slider usage. Both pitches comprise 39% of his arsenal. His fastball is more effective because its velocity is higher and hitters are less able to sit on it because he’s sequencing his pitches more unpredictably. His curveball has improved the most. It benefits from a 15 mph velocity differential with his fastball that keeps hitters off-balance. Last season he threw more balls with it, but this season more strikes. He’s also able to vary its location, although he likes to keep it low, where it plays well off a high heater. Moreover, he’s added significantly more vertical and horizontal movement to it that makes it more elusive. He’s throwing it more frequently with two strikes and whiffing more batters with it.
Arizona ranks 23rd in slugging against Pivetta’s pitches. Based on the metric xSLG-SLG, which compares a team’s slugging rate with what it should be, Arizona is strongly overachieving against his breaking stuff. Diamondback batters will also struggle with his velocity. They rank 28th in slugging against the high-velo (94-99 mph) fastball.
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Diamondback Zack Greinke (12-6, 2.96 ERA) had a tough-luck loss last week, giving up only two runs, but not receiving run support. Greinke has yet to allow more than two runs in his first home start following a loss—this situation has occurred four times. Greinke faced Philadelphia once and struggled, but that was in April when he was having a rough start to the season. He’s showing great form, allowing two runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts.
Greinke throws his fastball with 43% frequency. He relies on its good location away from the middle and on creating similar horizontal and vertical release points to mask which pitch approaches the batter. He’s also excellent with pitch sequencing and will often work backwards and throw his fastball with two strikes in order to remain unpredictable. Greinke is also famous for his hard change-up, which averages three mph less than his fastball, as opposed to the usual seven or eight mph. It’s also elusive with its moderate arm-side movement.
His elite quality defies match-up considerations, especially at home, where his FIP is 2.82. For example, the Dodgers rank fifth in slugging against his three favorite pitches but he yielded a 0.83 FIP against them at home. Philly ranks 23rd in the category. Phillies batters are also slumping away from home, where they’ve scored ten runs in their last five games. Philly’s two BA leaders, Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco, are combined 3-for-20 (.150) in August.
In Philly’s bullpen, Pat Neshek is untouchable and Seranthony Dominguez and Victor Arano boast sub-2 ERA’s. For Arizona, former Ranger Jake Diekman has yielded only one run outside of Texas and T.J. McFarland hasn’t conceded in consecutive outings since June 4. Both bullpens will secure the „under."
