NFL Week 8 Parlay (+271): Cardinals and Texans Are Live Dogs
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis
Arizona Road Trend
Arizona is in a favorable situation because it is a road underdog
As a head coach, Cardinal coach Kliff Kingsbury's team covers in 70 percent of its road games and in 78.9 percent of its road games in which it is the underdog.
Looking at the past two seasons, his team enjoys 8-0 SU and ATS runs in these situations.
This year, Arizona is 2-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog, upsetting the Raiders by six points and the Panthers by 10.
DeAndre Hopkins Is Back
The Cardinals' success this year as road underdogs has persisted despite star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins' absence.
Hopkins' ability to play makes a tremendous difference in Arizona's general success rate.
His absence last year helps explain Arizona's late- and end-of-season slide.
With Hopkins, the Cardinals were 8-2 with the only two losses coming against Green Bay and the eventual Super Bowl champs.
While Arizona was generally struggling this year, Hopkins is back, and his return has predictably made a tremendous difference.
In his first game back, Arizona secured a 42-24 late-fourth quarter lead and, ultimately, easily covered the spread.
Hopkins, by far, led Cardinal receivers with 10 receptions and 103 yards.
Kyler Murray's Outlook
Quarterback Kyler Murray accordingly had his best performance of the season as a passer.
With his favorite target back, he earned his highest passer rating in any game this season.
Murray's outlook looks especially positive because he poses a threat to scramble with his excellent speed.
Minnesota, though, has struggled to limit the rushing output of opposing quarterbacks, as evident in the efficient and productive rushing performances of Chicago's Justin Fields and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts.
Viking Pass Defense
The fact that Murray, with Hopkins, is trending upwards spells trouble for the Viking defense.
Minnesota is already uniquely vulnerable to opposing pass attacks.
Specifically, the Viking pass defense ranks 28th.
Their most recent performance appears particularly worrisome because they were facing Miami's backup quarterbacks.
But they are evidently vulnerable to strong wide receiver talent -- Miami's top two wide receivers combined for over 300 yards -- which bodes additional promise for Hopkins' outlook.
Vance Joseph
The Cardinal defensive coordinator is characteristically devoted to man coverage.
He is well-known for employing exotic blitzes while positioning his cornerbacks in press man coverage.
Viking Offense's Outlook
This emphasis on man spells trouble for quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is already suffering a steep regression performance-wise -- his passer rating is enduring a steep decline relative to previous years.
As evident in passer rating, Cousins is at his worst against man coverage.
Not only will he struggle against Arizona's man coverage emphasis, but running back Dalvin Cook will struggle against one of the highest-ranked run defenses -- the Cardinals rank seventh at limiting opposing rush yardage.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 4:05 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Series History
It might seem tempting to bet on the Titans as small favorites simply because they are a good team, a team with a winning record, trending upwards while Houston has won one game so far.
But the Texans play Tennessee tough.
Last year, when the Titans were the number one seed in the AFC, they lost 22-13 against Houston in their first meeting and scraped past Houston with a three-point victory in their second meeting.
Not Afraid of Derrick Henry
If you look into this game, you will see from ESPN and from seemingly everybody reporting on this matchup that Derrick Henry has an amazing individual history against the Texans.
Houston's defense is well-aware of the threat that Henry poses and is keened to stop it.
The Texans will surely want to stack the box in order to limit Henry's production.
This kind of strategy works against Henry even when he's facing low-ranked run defenses.
An example of this is when he mustered three YPC against the Chiefs last year.
This week, Houston enjoys a uniquely favorable opportunity to commit itself to stopping Henry because Titan starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is dinged up.
Tannehill is listed as 'questionable' for Sunday's game.
While he left his walking boot, he was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice, although he did not appear to take any snaps.
His rookie backup, Malik Willis, struggles to be accurate.
The rookie is 1-for-4 with six yards so far.
Either quarterback will miss having an elite wide receiver in AJ Brown to throw to, in attempting to punish the Texans for stacking the box.
Davis Mills and Dameon Pierce
Houston's chances of running the ball well increase exponentially in view of Titan defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons' ankle injury.
His ankle continues to keep the Pro Bowler out of practice, and his absence would entail a significant detriment to his team's pass-rushing and run-stuffing endeavors.
At the very least, the Texans have the personnel to keep Tennessee's run defense honest.
Meanwhile, quarterback Davis Mills generally thrives at home rather than on the road.
His passer rating is over 35 points better at home than on the road.
Fittingly, he enjoyed one of his best performances of the season last year at home against the Titans.
Mills stands to thrive again, at home against Tennessee's 31st-ranked pass defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals +3.5 at -108 & Texans +2.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 1 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis
Arizona Road Trend
Arizona is in a favorable situation because it is a road underdog
As a head coach, Cardinal coach Kliff Kingsbury's team covers in 70 percent of its road games and in 78.9 percent of its road games in which it is the underdog.
Looking at the past two seasons, his team enjoys 8-0 SU and ATS runs in these situations.
This year, Arizona is 2-0 SU and ATS as a road underdog, upsetting the Raiders by six points and the Panthers by 10.
DeAndre Hopkins Is Back
The Cardinals' success this year as road underdogs has persisted despite star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins' absence.
Hopkins' ability to play makes a tremendous difference in Arizona's general success rate.
His absence last year helps explain Arizona's late- and end-of-season slide.
With Hopkins, the Cardinals were 8-2 with the only two losses coming against Green Bay and the eventual Super Bowl champs.
While Arizona was generally struggling this year, Hopkins is back, and his return has predictably made a tremendous difference.
In his first game back, Arizona secured a 42-24 late-fourth quarter lead and, ultimately, easily covered the spread.
Hopkins, by far, led Cardinal receivers with 10 receptions and 103 yards.
Kyler Murray's Outlook
Quarterback Kyler Murray accordingly had his best performance of the season as a passer.
With his favorite target back, he earned his highest passer rating in any game this season.
Murray's outlook looks especially positive because he poses a threat to scramble with his excellent speed.
Minnesota, though, has struggled to limit the rushing output of opposing quarterbacks, as evident in the efficient and productive rushing performances of Chicago's Justin Fields and Philadelphia's Jalen Hurts.
Viking Pass Defense
The fact that Murray, with Hopkins, is trending upwards spells trouble for the Viking defense.
Minnesota is already uniquely vulnerable to opposing pass attacks.
Specifically, the Viking pass defense ranks 28th.
Their most recent performance appears particularly worrisome because they were facing Miami's backup quarterbacks.
But they are evidently vulnerable to strong wide receiver talent -- Miami's top two wide receivers combined for over 300 yards -- which bodes additional promise for Hopkins' outlook.
Vance Joseph
The Cardinal defensive coordinator is characteristically devoted to man coverage.
He is well-known for employing exotic blitzes while positioning his cornerbacks in press man coverage.
Viking Offense's Outlook
This emphasis on man spells trouble for quarterback Kirk Cousins, who is already suffering a steep regression performance-wise -- his passer rating is enduring a steep decline relative to previous years.
As evident in passer rating, Cousins is at his worst against man coverage.
Not only will he struggle against Arizona's man coverage emphasis, but running back Dalvin Cook will struggle against one of the highest-ranked run defenses -- the Cardinals rank seventh at limiting opposing rush yardage.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, October 30, 2022 at 4:05 p.m. ET at NRG Stadium in Houston
Series History
It might seem tempting to bet on the Titans as small favorites simply because they are a good team, a team with a winning record, trending upwards while Houston has won one game so far.
But the Texans play Tennessee tough.
Last year, when the Titans were the number one seed in the AFC, they lost 22-13 against Houston in their first meeting and scraped past Houston with a three-point victory in their second meeting.
Not Afraid of Derrick Henry
If you look into this game, you will see from ESPN and from seemingly everybody reporting on this matchup that Derrick Henry has an amazing individual history against the Texans.
Houston's defense is well-aware of the threat that Henry poses and is keened to stop it.
The Texans will surely want to stack the box in order to limit Henry's production.
This kind of strategy works against Henry even when he's facing low-ranked run defenses.
An example of this is when he mustered three YPC against the Chiefs last year.
This week, Houston enjoys a uniquely favorable opportunity to commit itself to stopping Henry because Titan starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is dinged up.
Tannehill is listed as 'questionable' for Sunday's game.
While he left his walking boot, he was listed as a limited participant in Thursday's practice, although he did not appear to take any snaps.
His rookie backup, Malik Willis, struggles to be accurate.
The rookie is 1-for-4 with six yards so far.
Either quarterback will miss having an elite wide receiver in AJ Brown to throw to, in attempting to punish the Texans for stacking the box.
Davis Mills and Dameon Pierce
Houston's chances of running the ball well increase exponentially in view of Titan defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons' ankle injury.
His ankle continues to keep the Pro Bowler out of practice, and his absence would entail a significant detriment to his team's pass-rushing and run-stuffing endeavors.
At the very least, the Texans have the personnel to keep Tennessee's run defense honest.
Meanwhile, quarterback Davis Mills generally thrives at home rather than on the road.
His passer rating is over 35 points better at home than on the road.
Fittingly, he enjoyed one of his best performances of the season last year at home against the Titans.
Mills stands to thrive again, at home against Tennessee's 31st-ranked pass defense.
Best Bet: Parlay Cardinals +3.5 at -108 & Texans +2.5 at -108 at +271 odds with Heritage
