Snakes Will Grow Ice Cold When Rockies Visit Desert
Arizona hosts Colorado on Friday night on ESPN + Colorado looks like more of a playoff contender, but can Arizona claw its way back into the thick of playoff contention?
Colorado (82-70) at Arizona (79-74)
MLB Pick: Rockies
Colorado’s German Marquez (12-10, 3.96 ERA) has been showing strong form, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 2.75 and conceding two runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts. He has won three of his last four decisions. Marquez is particularly profitable on the road, where he’s yielding +5.1 units, against division opponents, against which he’s yielding +3.8 units, and at night, where he’s yielding +5.9 units.
Marquez relies primarily on his fastball, although not as much as he used to. He throws it with 47 percent frequency and leans on it most in every scenario except when he’s ahead of the count against right-handed batters. In his last three road starts, opponents batted .222 or worse against his fastball. The effectivity of his fastball helps him to start ahead of the count, which he does with 64 percent frequency and has been doing with over 70 percent frequency in three of his last four starts. His heater averages 95 mph, it tails towards left-handed batters, and he has significantly improved its location. It used to hit the dead middle of the plate with almost eight percent frequency. Since August, that frequency has dropped by almost three percent. Instead, he hits the lowest-right spot of the zone with 12.20 percent frequency. Despite his intent to be more precise, he doesn’t succumb to the problem that most plate nibblers do and throw many balls. His fastball enjoys a 33 percent strike rate.
He also throws a curveball and slider with combined 38 percent frequency. Both pitches introduce a strong change in velocity relative to his fastball, although he his curveball velocity is surprisingly close to that of his slider. Opponents bat under .170 against each pitch. His slider is so effective because it is unusually tight and lacks vertical movement, so that opponents have trouble tracking it. He keeps it low, placing it with 21 percent frequency in the lowest-right spot of the zone. He places his curveball with combined 46 percent frequency in the lowest-right spots of the zone. So, both pitches play well off the fastball that he likes to elevate. His curveball boasts tricky negative vertical movement and respectable horizontal movement. He throws both pitches often enough in all scenarios, but especially when he’s ahead of the count.
Marquez is 2-0 in his last two starts against Arizona, allowing three runs in his last 13 innings. He did struggle against them in June, but that was amidst a series of bad starts, meaning that he was in poor form. In his last start in Arizona, he yielded a 2.55 FIP. He gave up many runs, but was unlucky because he yielded a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite giving up a hard contact rate below his season average. In his other start there, he wasn’t sharp, but still only gave up one unearned run in five innings.
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Arizona’s Zack Godley (14-10, 4.79 ERA) is showing poor form, conceding four runs or more in five of his last six starts. In at least most of his last starts, he’s conceded a high rate of line drives and hard contact ,and a low one of soft contact, compared with his season average.
Godley relies on a sinker-cutter-curve combo. The three pitches comprise 95 percent of his arsenal. His last three opponents have been slamming his pitches with high slugging rates. He’s been leaving his pitches more frequently down the middle and they’ve lost some velocity and horizontal and vertical movement.
Colorado ranks fourth in slugging against Godley’s favorite pitches. Watch for Charlie Blackmon, who is enjoying an 11-game hit streak. He is 6-for-13 with three doubles and a homer in his career against Godley. Ian Desmond is batting above .300 and slugging above .550 against him.
The Diamondbacks are in a bad spot. They've lost each of their last seven games following a shutout victory and are 1-7 in the spot this year.
Arizona hosts Colorado on Friday night on ESPN + Colorado looks like more of a playoff contender, but can Arizona claw its way back into the thick of playoff contention?
Colorado (82-70) at Arizona (79-74)
MLB Pick: Rockies
Colorado’s German Marquez (12-10, 3.96 ERA) has been showing strong form, yielding an FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) under 2.75 and conceding two runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts. He has won three of his last four decisions. Marquez is particularly profitable on the road, where he’s yielding +5.1 units, against division opponents, against which he’s yielding +3.8 units, and at night, where he’s yielding +5.9 units.
Marquez relies primarily on his fastball, although not as much as he used to. He throws it with 47 percent frequency and leans on it most in every scenario except when he’s ahead of the count against right-handed batters. In his last three road starts, opponents batted .222 or worse against his fastball. The effectivity of his fastball helps him to start ahead of the count, which he does with 64 percent frequency and has been doing with over 70 percent frequency in three of his last four starts. His heater averages 95 mph, it tails towards left-handed batters, and he has significantly improved its location. It used to hit the dead middle of the plate with almost eight percent frequency. Since August, that frequency has dropped by almost three percent. Instead, he hits the lowest-right spot of the zone with 12.20 percent frequency. Despite his intent to be more precise, he doesn’t succumb to the problem that most plate nibblers do and throw many balls. His fastball enjoys a 33 percent strike rate.
He also throws a curveball and slider with combined 38 percent frequency. Both pitches introduce a strong change in velocity relative to his fastball, although he his curveball velocity is surprisingly close to that of his slider. Opponents bat under .170 against each pitch. His slider is so effective because it is unusually tight and lacks vertical movement, so that opponents have trouble tracking it. He keeps it low, placing it with 21 percent frequency in the lowest-right spot of the zone. He places his curveball with combined 46 percent frequency in the lowest-right spots of the zone. So, both pitches play well off the fastball that he likes to elevate. His curveball boasts tricky negative vertical movement and respectable horizontal movement. He throws both pitches often enough in all scenarios, but especially when he’s ahead of the count.
Marquez is 2-0 in his last two starts against Arizona, allowing three runs in his last 13 innings. He did struggle against them in June, but that was amidst a series of bad starts, meaning that he was in poor form. In his last start in Arizona, he yielded a 2.55 FIP. He gave up many runs, but was unlucky because he yielded a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play) despite giving up a hard contact rate below his season average. In his other start there, he wasn’t sharp, but still only gave up one unearned run in five innings.
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Arizona’s Zack Godley (14-10, 4.79 ERA) is showing poor form, conceding four runs or more in five of his last six starts. In at least most of his last starts, he’s conceded a high rate of line drives and hard contact ,and a low one of soft contact, compared with his season average.
Godley relies on a sinker-cutter-curve combo. The three pitches comprise 95 percent of his arsenal. His last three opponents have been slamming his pitches with high slugging rates. He’s been leaving his pitches more frequently down the middle and they’ve lost some velocity and horizontal and vertical movement.
Colorado ranks fourth in slugging against Godley’s favorite pitches. Watch for Charlie Blackmon, who is enjoying an 11-game hit streak. He is 6-for-13 with three doubles and a homer in his career against Godley. Ian Desmond is batting above .300 and slugging above .550 against him.
The Diamondbacks are in a bad spot. They've lost each of their last seven games following a shutout victory and are 1-7 in the spot this year.
