Arizona Cardinals To Fly Under Projected Regular Season Win Total
2019 Regular Season Win Total
NFL Pick: Cardinals "Under" 5.5 Wins
Odds
After Arizona finished with the league's worst record at 3-13, oddsmakers have set its over/under win total at 5.5 games. Arizona's projected win total is tied for second-lowest with Cincinnati and is one game above Miami's.
Team Preview
Baker Mayfield... Patrick Mahomes... Kyler Murray? A flattering light has been shed on freshly hired coach Kliff Kingsbury for having worked at Texas Tech with one MVP hopeful and last year's reigning MVP. But it would be a grave error to think that Arizona's top draft pick is next in line.
Before discussing Murray directly, I want to look at Arizona's offensive line. Last season, it allowed the fourth-most sacks and fifth-most quarterback hits. In the offseason, management neglected to make substantial upgrades, which is why PFF ranks the Cardinal o-line 30th without even accounting for how injury prone many of its components are.
Ask Josh Rosen, last year's top victim of Arizona's decrepit pass protection, whether a bad o-line is detrimental to a young quarterback's development. At 5'10, Kyler Murray is short for a quarterback. His defenders will argue that, his height notwithstanding, Murray didn't have issues in college with opponents batting down passes and he showed great vision in the pocket. The difference between Murray's situation in the NFL and in college is that in college, Murray stood behind an offensive line that was generally way more talented than opposing defensive lines. In the NFL, that talent advantage will not only not exist, any qualitative disparity will favor the opposing defensive line.
At Oklahoma, Murray generally stood well behind his blockers. This distance allowed him the space to move laterally within the pocket and see downfield. In the NFL, defensive linemen will be right in his face and quickly, too. Although he often got to face porous Big 12 defenses, video footage still exists to illuminate Murray's deficiencies in the face of pressure. (https://thumbs.gfycat.com/RespectfulWavyHornedviper-mobile.mp4)
When he gets rushed, Murray's decision-making ability and mechanics tend to desert him. Also, in other such instances, he notably misses open receivers and tends to rely too much on his scrambling ability. Defenses are going to take away the deep ball, pressure him, and occupy running lanes to test his post-snap reading of the defense, rush him, and force him into hurried throws over the middle.
Note that i'm not trying to say that Murray will be a bust. I'm only saying that he has a learning curve to endure and some major obstacles in his own size and in his surrounding talent will make the learning process harder for him.
As for the rest of the offense, David Johnson will try to bounce back from being a non-factor. He averaged 3.6 YPC and won't do much better without a pass attack to take pressure off of him and ameliorated run protection.
Wide receiver is a relative bright spot for the Cards. While his poor statistics last season were indicative of Arizona's overall offensive issues, Larry Fitzgerald appears to be going strong. Christian Kirk is extremely promising and Michael Crabtree adds veteran presence.
Defensively, Arizona's top priority had to be against the run. It ranked last-place in allowing 154.9 rushing yards per game and 25 rushing touchdowns. It appeared to make a decent improvement by signing former Charger defensive end Darius Philon.
But the Cardinals cut Philon after he was arrested on assault charges. This move thrusts third-round pick Zach Allen into a starting role. Allen's combine stats reveal a lack of athleticism and of speed off the edge that will make it hard to beat an opposing tackle to the backfield.
Between an unathletic rookie, no-names at defensive tackle, and questionable depth, Arizona's defensive line will remain porous and vulnerable against the run. The worries continue behind Arizona's tackles with two unproven inside linebackers in the often injury-ridden Jordan Hicks and Haason Reddick. Granted, Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs may add some excitement at outside linebacker.
In the secondary, hope is quickly dissipating with top corner Patrick Peterson suspended for six games and second-best corner Robert Alford set to miss half the season with a fractured tibia. The loss of these two corners will force defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to stray from much of the blitzing and aggressiveness that he likes from his defense.
Schedule
The Cardinals will play six teams projected to have losing records: Detroit, Cincinnati, New York Giants, San Francisco, (2x) and Tampa Bay. An "over" bettor would probably expect Arizona to win at the very least four of these easier games and then pray for two wins against the likes of Baltimore, Carolina, Seattle, Seattle, L.A. Rams, L.A. Rams, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland.
I think Arizona will lose to Detroit. Offensively, the Lions look to become more run-centered. PFF has the offensive line ranked 15th, seven spots below its ranking heading into last season. The offensive line should improve with Frank Ragnow moving back to center, which is the natural position of last year's first-round pick, and both tight end additions being available to stabilize protection. In his rookie season, Kerryon Johnson averaged 5.4 YPC and ranked well above-average in broken tackle percentage. Against Arizona, Detroit will do what it wants to do on offense.
Defensively, Detroit's defensive line is one of the league's best. Statistically, the Lions became one of the top teams against the run after acquiring Damon Harrison. Trey Flowers was a welcome addition to a pass rush that already ranked fourth in sack rate. After amassing 7.5 sacks last year, the former Patriot reunites with Lions coach Matt Patricia. Defensively, too, the Lions can bully Arizona.
San Francisco will control the ground game against Arizona. Its offensive line is anchored by one of the league's best tackle tandems in six-time Pro Bowler Joe Staley and PFF's second-best run-blocking tight end Mike McGlinchey. The running game will be balanced between Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman. Breida's 5.3 YPC were a big reason why San Francisco boasted one of the league's better rush attacks despite missing its starting quarterback to take the pressure off. Coleman, who played a supportive role in Atlanta's run game, will prosper under Kyle Shanahan.
Like Detroit, San Francisco's defense will dominate the trenches with the addition of former Chief and Pro Bowler Dee Ford at defensive end Nick Bosa joining a defensive line that already boasts some rising former first-round draft picks.
On paper, Cincinnati, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay seem like Arizona's most beatable opponents. But, the Cardinals play each of them on the road. They would have to beat them and achieve two significant upsets in order to be close to going "over" the projected win total.
2019 Regular Season Win Total
NFL Pick: Cardinals "Under" 5.5 Wins
Odds
After Arizona finished with the league's worst record at 3-13, oddsmakers have set its over/under win total at 5.5 games. Arizona's projected win total is tied for second-lowest with Cincinnati and is one game above Miami's.
Team Preview
Baker Mayfield... Patrick Mahomes... Kyler Murray? A flattering light has been shed on freshly hired coach Kliff Kingsbury for having worked at Texas Tech with one MVP hopeful and last year's reigning MVP. But it would be a grave error to think that Arizona's top draft pick is next in line.
Before discussing Murray directly, I want to look at Arizona's offensive line. Last season, it allowed the fourth-most sacks and fifth-most quarterback hits. In the offseason, management neglected to make substantial upgrades, which is why PFF ranks the Cardinal o-line 30th without even accounting for how injury prone many of its components are.
Ask Josh Rosen, last year's top victim of Arizona's decrepit pass protection, whether a bad o-line is detrimental to a young quarterback's development. At 5'10, Kyler Murray is short for a quarterback. His defenders will argue that, his height notwithstanding, Murray didn't have issues in college with opponents batting down passes and he showed great vision in the pocket. The difference between Murray's situation in the NFL and in college is that in college, Murray stood behind an offensive line that was generally way more talented than opposing defensive lines. In the NFL, that talent advantage will not only not exist, any qualitative disparity will favor the opposing defensive line.
At Oklahoma, Murray generally stood well behind his blockers. This distance allowed him the space to move laterally within the pocket and see downfield. In the NFL, defensive linemen will be right in his face and quickly, too. Although he often got to face porous Big 12 defenses, video footage still exists to illuminate Murray's deficiencies in the face of pressure. (https://thumbs.gfycat.com/RespectfulWavyHornedviper-mobile.mp4)
When he gets rushed, Murray's decision-making ability and mechanics tend to desert him. Also, in other such instances, he notably misses open receivers and tends to rely too much on his scrambling ability. Defenses are going to take away the deep ball, pressure him, and occupy running lanes to test his post-snap reading of the defense, rush him, and force him into hurried throws over the middle.
Note that i'm not trying to say that Murray will be a bust. I'm only saying that he has a learning curve to endure and some major obstacles in his own size and in his surrounding talent will make the learning process harder for him.
As for the rest of the offense, David Johnson will try to bounce back from being a non-factor. He averaged 3.6 YPC and won't do much better without a pass attack to take pressure off of him and ameliorated run protection.
Wide receiver is a relative bright spot for the Cards. While his poor statistics last season were indicative of Arizona's overall offensive issues, Larry Fitzgerald appears to be going strong. Christian Kirk is extremely promising and Michael Crabtree adds veteran presence.
Defensively, Arizona's top priority had to be against the run. It ranked last-place in allowing 154.9 rushing yards per game and 25 rushing touchdowns. It appeared to make a decent improvement by signing former Charger defensive end Darius Philon.
But the Cardinals cut Philon after he was arrested on assault charges. This move thrusts third-round pick Zach Allen into a starting role. Allen's combine stats reveal a lack of athleticism and of speed off the edge that will make it hard to beat an opposing tackle to the backfield.
Between an unathletic rookie, no-names at defensive tackle, and questionable depth, Arizona's defensive line will remain porous and vulnerable against the run. The worries continue behind Arizona's tackles with two unproven inside linebackers in the often injury-ridden Jordan Hicks and Haason Reddick. Granted, Chandler Jones and Terrell Suggs may add some excitement at outside linebacker.
In the secondary, hope is quickly dissipating with top corner Patrick Peterson suspended for six games and second-best corner Robert Alford set to miss half the season with a fractured tibia. The loss of these two corners will force defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to stray from much of the blitzing and aggressiveness that he likes from his defense.
Schedule
The Cardinals will play six teams projected to have losing records: Detroit, Cincinnati, New York Giants, San Francisco, (2x) and Tampa Bay. An "over" bettor would probably expect Arizona to win at the very least four of these easier games and then pray for two wins against the likes of Baltimore, Carolina, Seattle, Seattle, L.A. Rams, L.A. Rams, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland.
I think Arizona will lose to Detroit. Offensively, the Lions look to become more run-centered. PFF has the offensive line ranked 15th, seven spots below its ranking heading into last season. The offensive line should improve with Frank Ragnow moving back to center, which is the natural position of last year's first-round pick, and both tight end additions being available to stabilize protection. In his rookie season, Kerryon Johnson averaged 5.4 YPC and ranked well above-average in broken tackle percentage. Against Arizona, Detroit will do what it wants to do on offense.
Defensively, Detroit's defensive line is one of the league's best. Statistically, the Lions became one of the top teams against the run after acquiring Damon Harrison. Trey Flowers was a welcome addition to a pass rush that already ranked fourth in sack rate. After amassing 7.5 sacks last year, the former Patriot reunites with Lions coach Matt Patricia. Defensively, too, the Lions can bully Arizona.
San Francisco will control the ground game against Arizona. Its offensive line is anchored by one of the league's best tackle tandems in six-time Pro Bowler Joe Staley and PFF's second-best run-blocking tight end Mike McGlinchey. The running game will be balanced between Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman. Breida's 5.3 YPC were a big reason why San Francisco boasted one of the league's better rush attacks despite missing its starting quarterback to take the pressure off. Coleman, who played a supportive role in Atlanta's run game, will prosper under Kyle Shanahan.
Like Detroit, San Francisco's defense will dominate the trenches with the addition of former Chief and Pro Bowler Dee Ford at defensive end Nick Bosa joining a defensive line that already boasts some rising former first-round draft picks.
On paper, Cincinnati, New York Giants, and Tampa Bay seem like Arizona's most beatable opponents. But, the Cardinals play each of them on the road. They would have to beat them and achieve two significant upsets in order to be close to going "over" the projected win total.
