Today's Plays Include a (+287) MLB Parlay
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, June 3, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Who Starts for Arizona?
Arizona starts Merrill Kelly who would be a much more profitable pitcher if he didn't have to face the mighty Dodgers three times.
Despite the tougher competition, Kelly is enjoying a career-best 3.29 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) this season.
On the surface, one large reason why this season is the best one in his four-year professional career is that he is doing a much better job of limiting home runs and hard contact.
Why Has Kelly Improved?
Kelly is s better pitcher this year because his pitch quality is greater.
He already benefits from having a nice level of variety in his repertoire.
Kelly throws five pitches, a fastball, changeup, cutter, curveball, and sinker.
He throws all five pitches with over 10 percent frequency while not throwing a single one with as much as 30 percent frequency.
Heat maps illustrate the greatness of his control. He ably locates his pitches away from the more middle parts of the strike zone and successfully targets the edges where pitches are generally harder to make strong contact against.
His individual pitches are also stronger in other respects.
For example, his fastball averages higher velocity this year.
This improvement helps explain why this pitch is yielding a vastly lower BA and slugging rate this year compared to last year.
Kelly vs. Pirate Batters
Kelly's numbers against active Pirate batters look promising.
Only one active Pirate has a hit off him, and it was a single.
Expect Kelly's success against Pirate players to continue because he matches up well against them.
They rank 25thin slugging against Kelly's favorite pitches from righties.
His favorite pitches are the fastball, changeup, and cutter, which make up almost three quarters of his arsenal.
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Pittsburgh starts JT Brubaker.
Compared with Kelly, Brubaker is more reliant on fewer pitches.
Brubaker throws a sinker and slider, which make up nearly 70 percent of his arsenal.
Arizona promises to thrive against Brubaker tonight because it ranks fourth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, June 3, 2022 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Atlanta starts southpaw Max Fried.
Primarily, Fried throws a fastball, curveball, and slider.
These are the three pitches that he throws over 20 percent of the time.
Together, they make up about 75 percent of his arsenal.
Despite his strong surface-level stats, Fried is a vulnerable pitcher.
Most notably, his fastball is his favorite pitch, yet it yields a .317 BA and .512 slugging rate.
Fried vs. Rockie Batters
While Fried's other pitches are obviously better, he's benefitted from facing many teams that don't hit his favorite pitches well.
So far, his toughest test was the Cubs, which rank sixth in slugging against his three favorite pitches from lefties.
When he faced the Cubs, he yielded a 4.48 FIP.
I like Colorado's lineup tonight because it matches up even better against Fried than Chicago.
In fact, the Rockies rank first in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Colorado also owns the best numbers against left-handed pitchers in general.
For example, look out for Brendan Rodgers who bats .361 and slugs .639 against lefties.
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts Chad Kuhl, its most profitable pitcher.
Overall, Kuhl is yielding +2.2 units in his starts.
Kuhl relies primarily on a sinker-slider combo.
These pitches make up nearly 80 percent of his arsenal.
His most challenging opponent has been San Francisco, which matches up well against him.
Conversely, the Braves rank 24thin slugging .337 against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks ML at -102 & Rockies RL (+1.5) at -105 at +287 odds with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, June 3, 2022 at 7:05 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh
Who Starts for Arizona?
Arizona starts Merrill Kelly who would be a much more profitable pitcher if he didn't have to face the mighty Dodgers three times.
Despite the tougher competition, Kelly is enjoying a career-best 3.29 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) this season.
On the surface, one large reason why this season is the best one in his four-year professional career is that he is doing a much better job of limiting home runs and hard contact.
Why Has Kelly Improved?
Kelly is s better pitcher this year because his pitch quality is greater.
He already benefits from having a nice level of variety in his repertoire.
Kelly throws five pitches, a fastball, changeup, cutter, curveball, and sinker.
He throws all five pitches with over 10 percent frequency while not throwing a single one with as much as 30 percent frequency.
Heat maps illustrate the greatness of his control. He ably locates his pitches away from the more middle parts of the strike zone and successfully targets the edges where pitches are generally harder to make strong contact against.
His individual pitches are also stronger in other respects.
For example, his fastball averages higher velocity this year.
This improvement helps explain why this pitch is yielding a vastly lower BA and slugging rate this year compared to last year.
Kelly vs. Pirate Batters
Kelly's numbers against active Pirate batters look promising.
Only one active Pirate has a hit off him, and it was a single.
Expect Kelly's success against Pirate players to continue because he matches up well against them.
They rank 25thin slugging against Kelly's favorite pitches from righties.
His favorite pitches are the fastball, changeup, and cutter, which make up almost three quarters of his arsenal.
Who Starts for Pittsburgh?
Pittsburgh starts JT Brubaker.
Compared with Kelly, Brubaker is more reliant on fewer pitches.
Brubaker throws a sinker and slider, which make up nearly 70 percent of his arsenal.
Arizona promises to thrive against Brubaker tonight because it ranks fourth in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, June 3, 2022 at 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Atlanta starts southpaw Max Fried.
Primarily, Fried throws a fastball, curveball, and slider.
These are the three pitches that he throws over 20 percent of the time.
Together, they make up about 75 percent of his arsenal.
Despite his strong surface-level stats, Fried is a vulnerable pitcher.
Most notably, his fastball is his favorite pitch, yet it yields a .317 BA and .512 slugging rate.
Fried vs. Rockie Batters
While Fried's other pitches are obviously better, he's benefitted from facing many teams that don't hit his favorite pitches well.
So far, his toughest test was the Cubs, which rank sixth in slugging against his three favorite pitches from lefties.
When he faced the Cubs, he yielded a 4.48 FIP.
I like Colorado's lineup tonight because it matches up even better against Fried than Chicago.
In fact, the Rockies rank first in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Colorado also owns the best numbers against left-handed pitchers in general.
For example, look out for Brendan Rodgers who bats .361 and slugs .639 against lefties.
Who Starts for Colorado?
Colorado starts Chad Kuhl, its most profitable pitcher.
Overall, Kuhl is yielding +2.2 units in his starts.
Kuhl relies primarily on a sinker-slider combo.
These pitches make up nearly 80 percent of his arsenal.
His most challenging opponent has been San Francisco, which matches up well against him.
Conversely, the Braves rank 24thin slugging .337 against his two favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks ML at -102 & Rockies RL (+1.5) at -105 at +287 odds with BetOnline
