MLB Parlay for Today at (+237) Includes High-Scoring Dodgers
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zach Davies starts for Arizona today.
Davies is not the kind of pitcher who tries to accumulate strikeouts, and he's all the better for it.
Rather, he pitches to contact, inducing a lot of soft contact and fly ball outs.
Davies Against Good Lineups
Davies' numbers are as mediocre as they are because he has been utterly victimized by baseball's strongest lineups.
He's had to face the top-ranked scoring offense, the Dodgers, three times.
In these three starts, he allowed a combined total of 11 runs in 13.1 innings.
Moreover, he was slammed by a Met team that ranks fifth in runs per game.
Against these Mets, he allowed four earned runs in 4.1 innings.
Davies Against Bad Lineups
Arizona's starter has proven reliable against baseball's weaker lineups.
While he struggles against the best, he has hurled shutout gems and accomplished sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) outputs against the Reds, Rockies (outside of hitters-friendly Coors Field), Pirates, and Tigers
This distinction between his success level against good and bad lineups is crucial because it is clear what Kansas City has.
Kansas City has a bad lineup, one that ranks 24th in runs per game.
Thus, the Royals are the kind of team that Davies is comfortable against.
Davies vs. Royal Batters
Moreover, Davies merits optimism tonight because he matches up well against Royal batters given the pitches that he likes to throw.
Primarily, Davies features his sinker and change-up.
He's great at distributing his sinker across the widest parts of the plate.
As heat maps show, he likes to place his sinker along the lateral borders of the strike zone.
While he throws his sinker 52.4 percent of the time, he features his changeup with 33.8-percent frequency.
The latter is unusually slow relative to his sinker.
This velocity differential generates a strong change of pace that keeps opposing hitters off-balance.
Not that the generally anemic Royal lineup needs much to keep it off-balance, but the Royals' hitting chances also suffer tonight for ranking 22nd in slugging against Davies' favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Must-fade Jon Heasley starts for the Royals tonight.
Heasley is a must-fade because, as his game-by-game and season stats show, he is not a competent professional pitcher.
Hence, he was sent down to Triple A before just now being called up from minor league baseball to help out an injury-laden starting rotation.
He repeatedly struggles against teams, such as the White Sox and Angels, that match up poorly against his pitching repertoire.
His appearance tonight creates a unique opportunity to go against someone so unestablished professionally.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Low Total
Given the ERA of both starting pitchers in this game, the "under" might seem to be an obvious choice.
But both pitchers' success this season creates strong value for the "over" because it is this success that explains why the posted total is as low as it is.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Corbin Burnes starts for Milwaukee.
His strong season ERA belies his historical struggles in Dodger Stadium.
Burnes' situation today echoes that of Miami stud Sandy Alcantara, who is having a terrific season but repeatedly struggles in Dodger Stadium.
As measured by ERA, Dodger Stadium is Burnes' least favorite place to play.
Here, he suffers a 13.50 ERA in two starts and three appearances.
Who Starts for Los Angeles?
Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers.
He has to face the Brewers a second consecutive time.
At this point in time, Milwaukee is starting to develop positive consistency as a lineup.
The Brewers have scored five or more runs in four of their last five games.
The one exception came when they scored four runs against a lefty.
Milwaukee is much more built to handle right-handed pitching.
Specifically, the Brewers rank second in slugging against Gonsolin's favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks ML at -119 & Brewers/Dodgers Over 7 at -120 at +237 odds with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 8:10 p.m. ET at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City
Who Starts for Arizona?
Zach Davies starts for Arizona today.
Davies is not the kind of pitcher who tries to accumulate strikeouts, and he's all the better for it.
Rather, he pitches to contact, inducing a lot of soft contact and fly ball outs.
Davies Against Good Lineups
Davies' numbers are as mediocre as they are because he has been utterly victimized by baseball's strongest lineups.
He's had to face the top-ranked scoring offense, the Dodgers, three times.
In these three starts, he allowed a combined total of 11 runs in 13.1 innings.
Moreover, he was slammed by a Met team that ranks fifth in runs per game.
Against these Mets, he allowed four earned runs in 4.1 innings.
Davies Against Bad Lineups
Arizona's starter has proven reliable against baseball's weaker lineups.
While he struggles against the best, he has hurled shutout gems and accomplished sub-three FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) outputs against the Reds, Rockies (outside of hitters-friendly Coors Field), Pirates, and Tigers
This distinction between his success level against good and bad lineups is crucial because it is clear what Kansas City has.
Kansas City has a bad lineup, one that ranks 24th in runs per game.
Thus, the Royals are the kind of team that Davies is comfortable against.
Davies vs. Royal Batters
Moreover, Davies merits optimism tonight because he matches up well against Royal batters given the pitches that he likes to throw.
Primarily, Davies features his sinker and change-up.
He's great at distributing his sinker across the widest parts of the plate.
As heat maps show, he likes to place his sinker along the lateral borders of the strike zone.
While he throws his sinker 52.4 percent of the time, he features his changeup with 33.8-percent frequency.
The latter is unusually slow relative to his sinker.
This velocity differential generates a strong change of pace that keeps opposing hitters off-balance.
Not that the generally anemic Royal lineup needs much to keep it off-balance, but the Royals' hitting chances also suffer tonight for ranking 22nd in slugging against Davies' favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Kansas City?
Must-fade Jon Heasley starts for the Royals tonight.
Heasley is a must-fade because, as his game-by-game and season stats show, he is not a competent professional pitcher.
Hence, he was sent down to Triple A before just now being called up from minor league baseball to help out an injury-laden starting rotation.
He repeatedly struggles against teams, such as the White Sox and Angels, that match up poorly against his pitching repertoire.
His appearance tonight creates a unique opportunity to go against someone so unestablished professionally.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, August 23, 2022 at 10:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Low Total
Given the ERA of both starting pitchers in this game, the "under" might seem to be an obvious choice.
But both pitchers' success this season creates strong value for the "over" because it is this success that explains why the posted total is as low as it is.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Corbin Burnes starts for Milwaukee.
His strong season ERA belies his historical struggles in Dodger Stadium.
Burnes' situation today echoes that of Miami stud Sandy Alcantara, who is having a terrific season but repeatedly struggles in Dodger Stadium.
As measured by ERA, Dodger Stadium is Burnes' least favorite place to play.
Here, he suffers a 13.50 ERA in two starts and three appearances.
Who Starts for Los Angeles?
Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers.
He has to face the Brewers a second consecutive time.
At this point in time, Milwaukee is starting to develop positive consistency as a lineup.
The Brewers have scored five or more runs in four of their last five games.
The one exception came when they scored four runs against a lefty.
Milwaukee is much more built to handle right-handed pitching.
Specifically, the Brewers rank second in slugging against Gonsolin's favorite pitches from righties.
Best Bet: Parlay Diamondbacks ML at -119 & Brewers/Dodgers Over 7 at -120 at +237 odds with BetOnline
