Arizona-Colorado Series play

[MusicCityGambler]

2-1 in series plays. 3-1 if you include leans.


DIAMONDBACKS +110
Arizona is playing better ball. Yes Colorado has won a billion games in a row but honestly they won that series because Philadelphia played that bad. Colorado was good but not great. Think the Rockies are going to get another Jose Mesa to beat up on out of the pen to enhance their margin of victory or Pat Burrell messing up in the field or another forty foot single with two outs leading to a grand slam? I don't. The Diamondbacks were great. The entire Arizona pitching staff has done well recently against the Rockies and I expect reality to set in quickly in this series.

Arizona in 5 games.

I'm also leaning toward Cleveland strongly but will look into more stuff before I lock in the play. I also think the RSox are overvalued for the same reasons as the Rockies,because they beat a watered down Angels team.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Good value there...this series could be a sweep either way...so value on the dog seems prudent.

 

[Blue_Chip]

GL slim... I cannot pick a team in this series

 

[BetCrimes1984]

I think it'll go longer than 5, but I like the play, MCG. Still not convinced by Colorado's pitching outside Francis.

 

[tuck321]

Will be playing both sides on a game by game basis but will take Arizona for the series. First 5 games are at night. GL

 

[terpsplayball]

this is my first post and being that it comes at 3 in the morning maybe im wrong here. but how can you bet on the d-backs? rockies riding the hottest streak in bball all year, staffs very similar. francis and webb balance each other out, (thats why the line is only -120 for webb at home) and that makes me like the rockies in game 1 even more. after that the dbacks wil be counting on d davis and l hernandez. the rockies have what amounts to an al lineup and these two will not be able to keep runs off the board. while i like the dbacks for their great defense and timely hitting they are not playing the hapless cubs. these rockies will take better advantage of their opportunities than the cubs previously, and the dbacks inability to hit will eventually catch up with them. lets face it, look at the lineups side by side and tell me the rockies dont have an advantage offensively at nearly every spot 1-9. I love eric byrnes and got to see his hustle breifly in bmore, but if he is your number 3 hitter you cannot go to the world series. the rocks pen has been great, their defense was number one in bball, and their offense is vastly superior. not too mention jeff francis is supremely underrated as is much of this young rockies team. finally the dbacks are the dogs in a series where they swept the cubs as dogs, had a better record than the rocks and won the division, hold home field advantage and get to start webb three out of seven games. rockies -125 rockies in five

 

[terpsplayball]

btw, of all the teams in the playoffs the most watered down was the cubs. they were pathetic the last month of the year and d davis and l hernandez had to get double play balls in almost every inning to keep runs off the board. the phillies lineup is for real and if the rockies out gunned them they certainly can beat the dbacks. the only thing bothering me about this series is the rockies youth and time off from live pitching. sometimes teams go cold. it wont happen here.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

terpsplayball - welcome to the site, and I'll answer 2 of your points

1 - Philly was no less pathetic than the Cubs were. Anyone saying *its because Colorado was so good that Philly was so pathetic*, yet at the same time says Arizona had nothing to do with the Cubs being so bad, is telling me more about their Rocky bias than anything else.
The Cubs had batters who can flat out hit, and as for them "being pathetic over the last month of the reg season", during that period the Cubs averaged 4.80 runs/game, thats just 0.10 of a run less than the league average, hardly pathetic.
While Philly did average 5.50 runs over their last month of the season, comparing the pitching AZ & COL faced respectively, its no contest who had the tougher opponent. Chicago threw out an 18 game winner, a 15 game winner and an 11 game winner. Philadelphia threw out a 44 year old 14 game winner (Moyer), a guy (Hamels) who had just recently come back from a month off due to an injury, and who'd only won 1 of 3 starts since that return prior to playing the Rocks, and they faced a 10 game winner who wasn't even on their staff at the season's beginning (Kendrick). Yet despite facing tougher pitching, AZ scored as many runs as COL did (16), in sweeping their opponent. Which leads to....

2 - in the 16 competitive games AZ & COL played (8 wins each) this season (thats up until AZ clinched, from which point they flagged their effort), Colorado only outscored AZ by a total of 3 runs, thats just 0.18 of a run per game more. Thats not a stat telling me about this huge gulf that exists between these 2 teams.

IMO the "rub of the green" will decide this series, and since AZ has the last AB potentially more times than the Rocks, I favour them to win through.

And from my POV, the reason Webb is "only -120" at home, is because the books know they can sell Colorado at the price they are at, they don't have to have the Rocks any higher (which obviously would mean Webb was lower) in order to sell them. This line is about Colorado, it's "not about Webb".

 

[tuck321]

Seriously the reasons to favor Arizona is they have homefield and the games are at night where they have been the best team in baseball. Also in the fourth game Owings at 8-4 on the road may be valuble. Will be playing Colorado some on the road. GL

 

[MusicCityGambler]

this is my first post and being that it comes at 3 in the morning maybe im wrong here. but how can you bet on the d-backs? rockies riding the hottest streak in bball all year, staffs very similar. francis and webb balance each other out, (thats why the line is only -120 for webb at home) and that makes me like the rockies in game 1 even more. after that the dbacks wil be counting on d davis and l hernandez. the rockies have what amounts to an al lineup and these two will not be able to keep runs off the board. while i like the dbacks for their great defense and timely hitting they are not playing the hapless cubs. these rockies will take better advantage of their opportunities than the cubs previously, and the dbacks inability to hit will eventually catch up with them. lets face it, look at the lineups side by side and tell me the rockies dont have an advantage offensively at nearly every spot 1-9. I love eric byrnes and got to see his hustle breifly in bmore, but if he is your number 3 hitter you cannot go to the world series. the rocks pen has been great, their defense was number one in bball, and their offense is vastly superior. not too mention jeff francis is supremely underrated as is much of this young rockies team. finally the dbacks are the dogs in a series where they swept the cubs as dogs, had a better record than the rocks and won the division, hold home field advantage and get to start webb three out of seven games. rockies -125 rockies in five

Lots of points to cover here but I watch enough of the Phillies to know when it has more to do with them playing bad than the opponent playing well.
Let me be clear, I'm not trying to take anything away from the Rockies. They were the better team over the three games and deserved to win. They are on an amazing run at the moment but a lot of things went right for them in that series that was mostly due to the Phillies playing poorly. The Phillies were swinging at pitches way off the plate with 3 balls that weren't even good pitches. They were pressing. Even with all of that the Rockies were only dominant in game 2 and that was largely due to a pitcher like Jose Mesa being in the game. Pretty much I believe you would have been hard pressed to find one MLB team that wouldn't have beaten the Phillies considering how they played over those three games. That's why I'm not overwhelmed with the Rockies.

17 out of 18 is amazing for any team in a game like baseball, and while the results were great in that Phillies series, I believe there were signs that things are about to come back to earth. Throw in a Diamondback team with strong pitching and a team that knows how to win at plus money and its an easy bet.

Betcrimes' point about the line being -120 is also correct. Now every sports fan who wants to place a bet is going to be inclined to bet the Rockies. It's a perfect time to fade them.

 

[terpsplayball]

holy hangover. working in a sports bar in md with tons of degenerate gamblers (myself included) I can tell you at least 85 percent of my customers will be betting ON arizona in game one with webb on the mound at that short a price. i dont see why people are going to be inclined to bet the rockies at even money on the road and against the best pitcher left in the nl. regardless, i think both of these teams are very similar and just dont believe the dbacks staff is that much more imposing then the rockies. without stats to back me up (im too lazy to find them) i just believe the rockies lineup has been more consistent top to bottom and I personally cannot rely on the dbacks lineup to score enough. with the defenses, experience and pens being so similar ill trust holliday, helton and co to score just enough to win four close games. also to much blame is being placed on the phillies and not enough crisitism on the cubs. it works both ways, and the cubs consistently had oppurtunities, just as the phillies, if not more. love the site, always appreciate incite and info, a special thanks to tim h on introduction to the site and congats on your recent marriage.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

i dont see why people are going to be inclined to bet the rockies at even money on the road and against the best pitcher left in the nl. regardless

terps - anyone looking at the reg. season stats will see Webb went 1-3-2 (w/l/nd) vs COL this season (with an awful era). 1 win as POR in 6 games? How will that put anyone off COL's batting lineup aligned to it's own best pitcher at plus money, when the perception is COL's the better, as well as the hotter, team?

 

[cisco]

Chasing Colorado to get a win.
Chasing the under.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

CLEVELAND INDIANS TO WIN ALCS +150
Honestly I think these two teams are evenly matched. They do the little things well and both have phenominal pitching. I have felt for a while that Cleveland is the best team in the leauge. I trust their middle relief more than I trust Boston's. +150 is too good to not bet when I think the true line should be somewhere around +105 to +115.