Arizona @ Colorado -- Discussion

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Arizona -10.5 and 55.0

So, you may be asking why I made a standalone thread about this game...

Well, you never know what game might intrigue myself. I have some reasons to start diving into this match and figured the much brighter cast at CTG could help steer us all in the right directions.

So, let's start with some basics...

The Colorado Buffalo's enter this game with a record of 4-5 overall and just 1-5 in the conference.

This is the final home game for CU.

Friday night next week at Wazzou followed by a trip to Rice-Eccles to finish things off.

Colorado will need to win 2 of these games in order to be automatically bowl eligible.

The fact of the matter is this has been a brutal stretch since the great comeback and OT win versus Colorado State. The collapse versus Stanford was the last time this offense has played well at all.

Last week, the score didn't indicate how badly they played overall.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the flip side, we have the surging Arizona Wildcats...

Jedd Fisch's squad has won 3 straight versus teams that were all ranked at the time.

Zona stands at 6-3 now with a home game vs Utah and the in-state affair in Tempe to close things out.

I love Jedd. He was JH's first OC at UM and that was such a fun offense to watch evolve in that 2015 season. I think he has more than surpassed expectations for the fanbase. I certainly have been happy with them, cashing on their games several times.

Remember, the two losses prior to this streak were the USC overtime game and taking Washington to the wire as well!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know we all have talked about value in Colorado games earlier in the year (Oregon soft number, for example). My question here is all about VALUE...

Have we gotten to the point where Arizona might be slightly overvalued in this game while the luster has come off Prime n company?

This seems like a pretty hefty tariff to bet the Wildcats. Honestly, as much as I like Zona, this line seems inflated to myself.

I think this is a somewhat tight game, and Colorado will be fighting for their postseason lives.

7/7.5 seems more appropriate here...

THOUGHTS??
 
Could make an argument Arz is undervalued here. They were -13 @ Stanford over a month ago before this impressive run. Stanford and Colorado seem pretty close to me, although I would slightly favor Colorado on neutral field. The bowl eligibility point is a good one, just not sure that’s what the players are focusing on at the moment. Eye test tells me Arz should roll here, but we all know it’s not that simple. I have no interest in betting Colorado though.
 
They all still live in Tucson and there is no value in that.

Great situation for Boulder. If I play it there is a ton of value on the Buffs. Another one that is probably best to bet live after (or if) AZ gets up a couple scores.
 
KJ said:
They all still live in Tucson and there is no value in that.

Great situation for Boulder. If I play it there is a ton of value on the Buffs. Another one that is probably best to bet live after (or if) AZ gets up a couple scores.
Click to expand...
I like the live betting idea, but as a middle opportunity after betting UA pregame.
 
M.W. said:
I like the live betting idea, but as a middle opportunity after betting UA pregame.
Click to expand...
It's an insanely bet against for me. I want to fade Prime every week but I've said why fading AZis a must right now.

These are two teams I want to be against. Live betting against the shittier team once they have a lead is the only way I can do this game
 
B.A.R. said:
Arizona -10.5 and 55.0

So, you may be asking why I made a standalone thread about this game...

Well, you never know what game might intrigue myself. I have some reasons to start diving into this match and figured the much brighter cast at CTG could help steer us all in the right directions.

So, let's start with some basics...

The Colorado Buffalo's enter this game with a record of 4-5 overall and just 1-5 in the conference.

This is the final home game for CU.

Friday night next week at Wazzou followed by a trip to Rice-Eccles to finish things off.

Colorado will need to win 2 of these games in order to be automatically bowl eligible.

The fact of the matter is this has been a brutal stretch since the great comeback and OT win versus Colorado State. The collapse versus Stanford was the last time this offense has played well at all.

Last week, the score didn't indicate how badly they played overall.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the flip side, we have the surging Arizona Wildcats...

Jedd Fisch's squad has won 3 straight versus teams that were all ranked at the time.

Zona stands at 6-3 now with a home game vs Utah and the in-state affair in Tempe to close things out.

I love Jedd. He was JH's first OC at UM and that was such a fun offense to watch evolve in that 2015 season. I think he has more than surpassed expectations for the fanbase. I certainly have been happy with them, cashing on their games several times.

Remember, the two losses prior to this streak were the USC overtime game and taking Washington to the wire as well!

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know we all have talked about value in Colorado games earlier in the year (Oregon soft number, for example). My question here is all about VALUE...

Have we gotten to the point where Arizona might be slightly overvalued in this game while the luster has come off Prime n company?

This seems like a pretty hefty tariff to bet the Wildcats. Honestly, as much as I like Zona, this line seems inflated to myself.

I think this is a somewhat tight game, and Colorado will be fighting for their postseason lives.

7/7.5 seems more appropriate here...

THOUGHTS??
Click to expand...
About value, I can tell you that usually road teams coming off three straight upset wins have still been undervalued. They’re 20-8 ATS since 1989, 13-1 more recently dating back to Arizona’s cover @ ASU in 2007 as +7 (lost 20-17). That 13-1 mark includes three double-digit favorites; they went 3-0 ATS covering by an average of 19 points.
 
Oregon state was -13 @ CU last week. I dont think you can upgrade CU much after their cover, as you mentioned it was fairly lucky (and you can upgrade AZ off their win). Anyways, the 10 looks about right to me
 
KJ said:
It's an insanely bet against for me. I want to fade Prime every week but I've said why fading AZis a must right now.

These are two teams I want to be against. Live betting against the shittier team once they have a lead is the only way I can do this game
Click to expand...
Yea this is a wait and see. AZ been playing well but this ain’t ideal to be laying 10’
 
I'm not a big fan of the dad but there are few players i respect more over the last few years than Shedeur.

He has been battered by a Cat 5 in pretty much every game. But he gets up, sometimes wobbling, sometimes on one leg, and remains in the game. Granted, the team didn't play well against OSU but it could have easlly thrown in the towel in the 4Q. Instead, Sanders took them down the field, twice, on long TD drives. (And that sucked from someone who was on Beaver.) Maybe it was playing a little soft. I dunno. But I was thoroughly impressed with those last 2 drives given how Sanders had been assaulted (within the rules) throughout the game and how he showed outstanding resiliency along with making some nice throws.
 
part of my style is finding opportunities and situations like this. I wouldnt say it because of just CU but it helps that CU was so bad last season.

It also helps that Az has been a dog so many time this season now they are Favorites. -10.5 to boot?

CU is 5-1 ATS in 2023 when their line is >-3. Only loss Oregon.

I am betting CU this week because I have data that I follow every week. I wont disclose the data but I am just following my path.

Zona also has a big game next week so that also plays a role here. previous dog, this week favorite and next week dog. This data i will disclose here >>>>>

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

All teams and over 3500 situations and the favorite hits 45% you could tail this every game and hit 55% if one can predict next weeks lines. In some cases, like this week, its easy to predict AZ a dog against Utah next week. Other cases much more difficult.

Arizona past dog performances have been excellent but at -10.5 the books have taken the AZ opportunity away this week.

CU stats and how they play are very difficult to watch at times, actually most often. They are also opportunistic and make big plays on both sides of the ball. Some of this isn't seen in the box score.

All of you are smart. I read the comments. The fact that I see comments "I can't" play AZ is telling.

The bottom line is Arizona is an excellent dog team. On the other hand a lot of dog teams are a fish out of water as favorites. I believe this to be the case this week.

Finally I will disclose some of my data findings here . ( and explain it)

previous dog and AF (with a line >-30) and next dog, in a conference game, since 1993, and the favorites ats streak is >3.

p:D and AF and n:D and ats streak>3 and line>-30 and C and season>1993
7-19 ATS 12-14 SU, if the line is -11 to -1 the favorite is 3-18 ats added to this the favorite straight up is 7-14.

remember happy face is capital D for dog. in this case, so when a happy face is shown its a symbol for colon DOG, : D

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com
 
Last edited:
I am not a fan boy of CU or Deion, but I bet them off a 1-11 season because they are climbing out of A huge hole. The fact that they are 5-1 ats when they are not laying -3 or more proves it. They are putting money in my pocket and thats all that matter, I seriously doubt they fail to cover and I have this wager winning over 65% of the time. Data has convinced me of this. No matter what it looks like on TV or in the box score.
 
I still can't wrap my head around arizona being so good - i keep waiting for them to come down.......definately a colorado spot and arizona is coming of 2 tough opponents with utah on deck

i don't think bowl is a motivation for colorado tho
We don’t give a damn about no bowl, we’re trying to win. Period," Deion Sanders said when asked about potentially not going to a bowl game, per On3. "We’re not saying ‘Oh, we’ve gotta go to a bowl.’ We’re trying to win. Period. And I think we proved that, first half, second half. I know we came back and gave up an explosion as soon as the second half commenced but the young men played a heck of a game. They really did.
 
I love Jedd Fisch and Bear Down has been a nice little cash cow for me, but it's Colorado or nothing for me.
 
Frank Costanza said:
I'm not a big fan of the dad but there are few players i respect more over the last few years than Shedeur.

He has been battered by a Cat 5 in pretty much every game. But he gets up, sometimes wobbling, sometimes on one leg, and remains in the game. Granted, the team didn't play well against OSU but it could have easlly thrown in the towel in the 4Q. Instead, Sanders took them down the field, twice, on long TD drives. (And that sucked from someone who was on Beaver.) Maybe it was playing a little soft. I dunno. But I was thoroughly impressed with those last 2 drives given how Sanders had been assaulted (within the rules) throughout the game and how he showed outstanding resiliency along with making some nice throws.
Click to expand...
Deion quite frankly is learning that being cool doesn't translate to being a good D1 coach. He's not. Neither is his talent and we all know what he brought in. Two years from now...maybe. But I'm not sure he's there in two years.
 
KJ said:
Situationally they are an incredible fade
Click to expand...
Depending on the situation your speaking of. MW's situation above, although a small one, says the opposite. Two teams headed in opposite directions late season as well
 
bmac said:
Depending on the situation your speaking of. MW's situation above, although a small one, says the opposite. Two teams headed in opposite directions late season as well
Click to expand...
Yeah not sure I'm betting it. Live Colorado if they're down or nothing for me.
 
spottie2935 said:
part of my style is finding opportunities and situations like this. I wouldnt say it because of just CU but it helps that CU was so bad last season.

It also helps that Az has been a dog so many time this season now they are Favorites. -10.5 to boot?

CU is 5-1 ATS in 2023 when their line is >-3. Only loss Oregon.

I am betting CU this week because I have data that I follow every week. I wont disclose the data but I am just following my path.

Zona also has a big game next week so that also plays a role here. previous dog, this week favorite and next week dog. This data i will disclose here >>>>>

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

All teams and over 3500 situations and the favorite hits 45% you could tail this every game and hit 55% if one can predict next weeks lines. In some cases, like this week, its easy to predict AZ a dog against Utah next week. Other cases much more difficult.

Arizona past dog performances have been excellent but at -10.5 the books have taken the AZ opportunity away this week.

CU stats and how they play are very difficult to watch at times, actually most often. They are also opportunistic and make big plays on both sides of the ball. Some of this isn't seen in the box score.

All of you are smart. I read the comments. The fact that I see comments "I can't" play AZ is telling.

The bottom line is Arizona is an excellent dog team. On the other hand a lot of dog teams are a fish out of water as favorites. I believe this to be the case this week.

Finally I will disclose some of my data findings here . ( and explain it)

previous dog and AF (with a line >-30) and next dog, in a conference game, since 1993, and the favorites ats streak is >3.

p:D and AF and n:D and ats streak>3 and line>-30 and C and season>1993
7-19 ATS 12-14 SU, if the line is -11 to -1 the favorite is 3-18 ats added to this the favorite straight up is 7-14.

remember happy face is capital D for dog. in this case, so when a happy face is shown its a symbol for colon DOG, : D

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com
Click to expand...
Interesting take. Too small of a sample size for me, especially when you add the eye test- watching games.
 
link here >>>>

MSN

www.msn.com

ex buff commit talkin trash before Saturdays game.

Called out tagged Shedeur.

"little boy" "I am going to make you my girl friend" lol
 
spottie2935 said:
I am not a fan boy of CU or Deion, but I bet them off a 1-11 season because they are climbing out of A huge hole. The fact that they are 5-1 ats when they are not laying -3 or more proves it. They are putting money in my pocket and thats all that matter, I seriously doubt they fail to cover and I have this wager winning over 65% of the time. Data has convinced me of this. No matter what it looks like on TV or in the box score.
Click to expand...
Pocket money again 6-1 ats
 
more pocket money this week as a lot of people have now given up hope on their bowl chances.

road game short week blah blah.

CU ML +160
 
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