Argos vs Cats Cfl week 2

[Sammy Meatballs]

Injury notes- John Avery is starting at running back for the Argos and Mike Bishop is starting at Qb.

Jason MAAS is starting at Qb for the Cats.

Argos are favored by -4.5 points over the Cats.

I have the Argos ranked 3rd in the league after BC and Calgary. Hamilton is ranked dead last in the league.

Argos defense is very good vs the pass, as they play a lot of zone and make it appear that the deep passes are there and then intercept them.
They have been playing together for many seasons as a unit and have good chemistry. This is why they were able to shut down BC pretty easy in week one.

Argos offense is very inconsistent, if they play well, they will win the grey cup like they did 3 years ago.
Damon Allen has been benched and mike BISHOP is taking over. BISHOP is athletic with a very very srong arm, but is not the kind of guy who will put long drives together. He will go 2 and out a few times and then hit a 60 yard long pass. He is more of a Qb that relies on his instincs and arm strength. However in the Cfl he can use his arm to hit longer passes.

One note is that John Avery who was pissed off he wasn't the starter is starting today due to injury.

Toronto is 5-0 ATS last 5 vs Hamilton and also 6-1 straight up.

Hamilton is retooling and did not look good vs Calgary.

However this is how Hamilton plays. They are usually competitive at the start of the games into the 2nd half where their inexperience shows. In this game I am confident that if the Argos are up at half they will cover the 2nd half line.

With a team like the Argos, they frustrate opposing teams but are not the type of team to be up 24-3 or even 21-7 at half. They struggle on offense, but things may change with BISHOP.

I am thinking that I will have an opportunity to hit the Argos at halftime, because I think the Cats will show up in their home opener and start off good. Then the Argos experience and veterans should shut them down in the 2nd half. This has been the story for Toronto on the road, they play better as the game progresses. Hamilton plays better at the start of games and then realizes they are going to lose and then gets scored on for a few late td's.

With Bishop making his first start in a long time, it will take him time to get the nerves out, and for the offense to start rolling. Also I expect the Cats to come out with a good effort out of the gates, as they are very young and eager. These type of teams are known to be close at half and then will lose vs a team like the Argos who are experienced.



I know one thing that the Argos defense is very tough to beat in the air, and the Ticats should not have success throwing the ball vs them.

I took the Argos one game last year vs a depleted Winnipeg team who was down to a 4th stringer Qb. The line was -4.5 and they won by 5 but after trailing at half by 10. That game looked too easy, and they were lucky to win. Reason was their inability to move the offense.


What I am doing is waiting until halftime as I expect the game to be close, and take the Argos.

I am not pulling the trigger on the Argos for the game because of their inability to move the ball on offense. Now I fully expect their defense to control the Cats but I need to know I can score enough points and sustain drives to lay -4.5 points on the road.

However I can tell you this already I am not considering taking the Cats at haltime of this game. I am taking the Argos, if they are up or down in this game, but think that I will get a good line, because I expect a competitive score at halftime.

The only scenario I lose out on is if the Argos are up by lets say 14 or more points. If the Argos are up by 7 points roughly and they are playing their shutdown D, they will cover the 2nd half as well.



Notes- Hamilton has a great punter and field goal kicker which should mean that they can win the field position battle. From my knowledge the Argos much like the Ravens of the NFL are not an offensive explosive team, but in years past they have covered easy vs the Cats, because they usually hold to them to 10 points in this matchup.
But things look to easy, and the Cats look overmatched, they could be dangerous at least to start out hot, and make a game of it, not win the game but be close in the 2nd quarter, much like Edmonton was able to do vs BC last night.

Playing Argos for the 2nd half of this game.

Good luck all

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks for the writeup Sammy. Good job last night.

I have Toronto -4 for the game. Is Calgary Offense that good or is the Hamiliton defense that bad, maybe combo of both? What about the Hamilton offense only throwing up 9points last week? How do you think the game ends, score wise

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Calgary has the receivers and the potential to be the best offense in the league. They are pretty much top2, between them and BC.

Last week Hamilton played good in the first half, as their linebackers were making plays and they were inspired.

Hamilton is like the wounded dog, they are young, inexperienced but have been known to surprise teams at home. But out of those teams they surprise none of them were Toronto.

Hamilton offense looked really bad last week, but looked good in pre season action. Calgary D was playing with many new faces, but the Qb on Hamilton was not confident throwing in the middle of the field, he was throwing sideline to sideline passes with no zip on the ball. He is playing for his job today I would presume.

It was a combination of both last week, poor Hamilton offense and decent Calgary defense. BUt the thing is that Hamilton was in that game last week until halftime, and they implode like they always do. I expect a similar style of game this week.

Your ARgos -4 play should cash, I do not think Hamilton can win this game, Argos need to win this game, they are not solid like BC but they use defense to win. Qb change, new punter, these could be factors that could help us or hurt us.

The only reason I am not taking them is because I feel like I will get a better line on the Argos at halftime. I expect the game to be close and the ARgos to win it in the 2nd half.

Ticats have a lot of unknowns on offense and on defense, the Argos unknown are at Qb. But the rest of the ARgos team is pretty stable.

If the Argos come out with any decent offensive effort they win the game by 10-16 points

In my mind I just see a good opportunity for an Argos 2nd half play.

 

[E.T.G.]

I got you and understand the logic. I am going to the Yankee game today, won't be around for any 2nd half action but I def understand where you are coming from there. Best of Luck today

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Good luck at the Yankees game, and good luck on the Argos as I think you should be fine with the -4.

 

[E.T.G.]

nice job...another W for sure.

I am not betting the one today, looks a little too close and could go either way. I guess the home team might be the better play?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Thanks buddy the Argos was a good play but unfortunately I was flying and I could not get it in as my flight was delayed. I was watching the game on the satellite in the airplane and the plane took for ever to let us out in Toronto. Oh well at least I hit Anaheim over the yankees and won my first ever bet while flying.

Heads up though next week hamilton travels to BC to play the Lions. I don't think the Cats will be able to score vs the Lions and the Lions should score at will vs the Cats. Honestly I would set the line at 24. I think the line may be around 14 to 17 points. Bc will score in the mid 30's at home and Ticats may be lucky to hit 10 points.


Today's game is very interesting. I can tell you that if I am able to watch the first half it will be a good 2nd half bet. Calgary has the offense, and Saskatchewan has the defense at home, but has a lot of new players in the secondary. If Burress is able to make pre snap reads like he did last year vs Sask , Calgary will win easy. If Sask can confuse Burress they will have a chance.

I will update later after I do my research, and will have a 2nd half play for sure.

 

[E.T.G.]

Sammmy - that BC-Hamilton game is wk4... BC is @ Saskatchewan next wk..

http://www.cfl.ca/index.php?module=sked&func=view&year=2007

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Did some research on the game and here is the skinny.

I am taking Calgary to beat Saskatchewan in this game.

Saskatchewan played well in week 1 defeating Montreal and sacking Calvillo 8 times. Rider defense has good linebackers and good pass rushers which means they make a lot of sacks and rattle opposing Qb's.

However vs Henry Burris, who ran for 98 yards last week, he is very mobile and can throw on the run. Last year he won in Regina 52-32 and lost 19-9. In the win he was not sacked, in the loss he was sacked 4 times.

Saskatchewan has replaced most of their Db's, and will possibly be without Lance Frazier who is a new Db. Saskatchewan has trouble vs an athletic scrambling QB because it gives them way more options to attack the Sask defense. I don't think Sask played that well last week vs Mtl.

Recap- Sask picked off Calvillo 3 times in the red zone last week and only scored 16 points. However Montreal has no receivers, and only has one receiver who is not fast ben Cahoon. Sask was able to stop Montreal in the 2nd half and sacked Calvillo 8 times but only scored 16 points.

Riders are working with kent AUSTIN now, who basically couldn't do anything as offensive coordinator in Toronto. He does not run the ball and throws on most downs.

However this week they will face an array of great receivers and the leagues top running back.

Nick Lewis- Fast, quick elusive will draw a lot of attention from Sask defense.
Mark BOERICHTER- Back from the NFL, he is tall 6'5 runs a 4.4 40 and has good hands. He is unstoppable on crossing patters and abuses Db's.

Kenyon RAMBO- Former Dallas Cowboy is really quick and fast with good hands.

Jermaine Copeland- He was in the top 5 receiving in the league but does not start anymore because of the talent on this team.

Joffrey reynolds- He is the best running back in the league.

Both defenses have undergone changes, Calgary has replaced their entire defensive front, but has the linebacker and most of its secondary back.

Sask has replaced most of its good Db's which will spell trouble vs Calgary.

This is a big rivalry match and Sask fans hate Burris and really want to beat him.
However BURRIS plays well when he is into the game. Last year Stamps lost to the Green Riders in the playoffs, but this Sask team does not have the Db's, has a new coach, and Stamps have gotten better offensively with Mark Boerichter who basically can dominate any defender in this league. He is that good.

I am taking Calgary +1 to win the game.

 

[E.T.G.]

Sammy...Is Syvelle Newton on any roster in the CFL? He played CFB at So Carolina and think I remember him trying to make a team in the CFL.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Never heard of him being on any rosters, but I know Cory JENKINS who also played Qb at South Carolina is a linebacker in Winnipeg.

Correction I am playing Calgary 1st half because of the following reasons.

Kerry Lamar JOSEPH was my hometown's former starting QB, so I have seen him play numerous games a few seasons back. JOSEPH generally is a 2nd half QB, he does not start games well and plays better as the game goes on and he gets a feel for the defenses.

Hank BURRIS is a fast starting Qb who actually plays the exact opposite, he starts games well and then opposing D's can sometimes figure his tendencies out and adjust their defense to stop him.

Factor in the fact that Sask is working with Kent Austin the new head coach who I think calls the plays all points to Sask starting out slow. Last week vs Montreal Sask scored more points in the 2nd half and moved the ball better. That is typical Kerry JOSEPH play.

Playing Calgary 1st half and then can make a separate 2nd half play.

 

[E.T.G.]

Jenkins was a senior the yr before I got to SC.

Syvelle played every position for us (rb,qb,wr, saftey), very good athlete but tore his achillies his junior yr and never really got his speed back his senior yr.

I wish I could watch these game, maybe on sopcast but post the 2nd half play def, i might want some action

 

[E.T.G.]

Newton signs with CFL, eh?
Clemson’s Crosby, Lexington’s Summers also going north of the border

By JOSEPH PERSON - The State

Passed over in last month’s NFL draft, Syvelle Newton has been lifting weights and running while waiting for a call to continue his football career.

Besides his workout regimen, Newton might want to start brushing up on his French.

The former USC standout said Wednesday he has agreed in principle to a two-year deal with the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League. Newton is one of several area players looking to revive their careers north of the border.

Ex-Clemson receiver Roscoe Crosby has signed a contract with the CFL’s Calgary Stampeders, and former USC tailback Demetris Summers has a tryout with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats, according to Kevin Parker, the players’ Columbia-based agent.

Newton, who played four positions at USC, hoped to be on an NFL roster this spring after becoming one of four players in NCAA history to finish with at least 600 yards receiving, rushing and passing.

But the lack of a true position and slow times in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine and USC’s pro day hurt Newton. His only overture from an NFL team came from the Cleveland Browns, who wanted Newton to come to their mini-camp without a contract.

Instead, Newton opted for the CFL, hoping he can follow the lead of Warren Moon, Doug Flutie and others who became NFL mainstays following stints in Canada.

“It was my first opportunity where a team finally was like, ‘We want you,’” Newton said. “Things didn’t work out for me with the draft. This is a step that I have to take.”

Newton is expected to start out at quarterback when he reports to Montreal for rookie practices May 31-June 2. The Alouettes’ Web site lists five quarterbacks on the roster, including returning starter Anthony Calvillo and Jesse Palmer, an ex-Florida passer and star of “The Bachelor” who could leave the team over playing time and financial concerns, according to published reports.

“I really don’t too much worry about who’s in front of me,” said Newton, adding that he could be used at another position. “Not being cocky or arrogant, I just go in and make the best of the situation.”

Adapting to change was one of Newton’s strong suits at USC. After arriving as a quarterback, Newton played receiver in 2003 before starting five games under center the following season. He sustained a season-ending Achilles injury in 2005 against Vanderbilt — a game in which Newton lined up at quarterback, tailback and receiver.

Newton started seven games at quarterback in place of Blake Mitchell in 2006 and ended the season as a safety.

He is looking forward to the CFL, whose bigger fields and use of unlimited motion place a greater emphasis on open-field running — another calling card of Newton’s.

“There’s more room for me to make things happen,” he said.

Crosby and Summers also hope to find room to roam in Canada.

Crosby was on the Indianapolis Colts’ practice squad in 2005. Parker said Crosby has spent much of his time with family while his mother has battled kidney problems.

The Frankfort Galaxy of NFL Europe drafted Crosby this year, but he did not make the team.

“He’s still a young guy. He’s only 24 years old,” Parker said. “He just has to go some place and play. Calgary’s giving him that opportunity. He has to take advantage of it.”

Ditto for Summers, cut by Dallas last summer after going to the Cowboys’ camp as an undrafted free agent. Summers has not played extensively since 2004. The former Parade All-American from Lexington was dismissed from USC in the spring of 2005 after failing a drug test.

Newton, who has been working out with Summers with a trainer in Northeast Richland, said his former teammate is in “great” physical condition.

As for the colorful Newton, the 22-year-old doubts whether he will have time to enjoy the outdoor cafes and old-world architecture of Montreal.

“I heard it’s beautiful. But I’m not really going there for the city of Montreal. I’m going there to play football ... and be a student of the game,” he said. “I’ve got to do whatever I need to do to make it to the NFL.”

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Everyone needs live Tv action, You can watch the game on Tsn.ca they have a live broadband where you can watch the game.

However I am not sure if computers from the States can access this, it might be available only to Canadians. Other option is to get the Free to Air satellite dish and point it to Bell Express Vu. Its only a couple hundred dollars, but its worth it to watch the 4 games weekly. They are all televised.

 

[E.T.G.]

you have to live in canada to use tsn.ca



this game will be on sopcast later, i am almost sure of that

 

[Pyppurs]

The TSN stream is available here

mms://a846.l3156036845.c31560.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/846/31560/v0001/reflector:36845 36845&akcp=31560&akserial=846&

high quality link, bout 30-60 secs behind play

haven't had any problems with link so far

 

[E.T.G.]

thank you pyppurs

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Going with Sask Moneyline +165 for 2nd half. Calgary defense is in disarray. 2 of their pass rushers are out, and they are having coverage breakdowns. Sask is winning the line of scrimmage.

 

[E.T.G.]

I didn't have a bet tonight but looks like Sask put the hurtin on Calgary..


Question. Is every team in the league way better than Hamilton?

Wk 1: Lost 37-9 to Calgary
Wk 2: Lost 30-5 to Toronto

Combined 67-14 in two games. Wk 3 they play Montreal at home, an 0-2 team.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Every team is better than Hamilton. Hamilton has gone through some major changes and the problem is they have no veterans or players with experience on offence.

Updated Power Rankings

BC
Saskatchewan
Toronto tied with Winnipeg
Edmonton
Calgary
Montreal
Hamilton

Hamilton will struggle scoring vs all the teams in the league above. They have no continuity on the offensive line. They cannot run the ball well. They have no plays on offense that work. This is because they have too many rookies with no experience.

Hamilton receivers have like 2 years of experience combined.

Winnipeg receivers have 30 years of experience combined

Toronto receivers have abou 25 years combined

BC has about 20 years combined

Calgary has about 15 years combined

Edmonton has about 20 years combined

Montreal has about 18 years combined

Not to mention Hamilton was playing Timmy Chang a rookie QB, with this young offense, they are in big trouble.

I will do a complete writeup for week 3in the CFL.

 

[E.T.G.]

Sounds good Sammy. I was thinking Hamilton would be a good fade until the lines catch up to them. Montreal being 0-2 might and on the road might have some value with the line but again, I have no idea about this league. Just what I have observed this week.

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Montreal has owned the Ticats in years past and Calvillo has had good games against them.

Montreal is 0-2 but they are not that bad of a team. The played in my rankings the #2 team in the league Saskatchewan and lost 16-7. Then they lost in Winnipeg 32-23.

However Montreal limited Winnipeg to only 10 points in the 2nd half and picked off GLENN a few times.

Montreal played in the grey cup finals last year vs BC lions. Their defense is still intact and is very quick.

Their offence has lost a few receivers but has changed their philosophy. Calvillo used to call his own plays last year, and take a 7 step drop. Now the cocky and egotistical coach is calling the plays and making him throw off a 3 step drop. This is why he has been sacked so many times this year, because of busted plays.

If we get a gift line of -3 or -4, we are in luck. Even under a Td really shouldn't be a problem as the Als defense is still good, they put pressure on the Qb and are quick at linebacker, and are good at pass coverage.

 

[E.T.G.]

Lines at the Greek:

Calgary @ Toronto Argos -2.5
Edmonton @ Winnipeg Bombers -5
BC @ Sask Roughriders -2
Montreal Al's -6 @ Hamilton

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Lines at the Greek:

Calgary @ Toronto Argos -2.5
Edmonton @ Winnipeg Bombers -5
BC @ Sask Roughriders -2
Montreal Al's -6 @ Hamilton

My lines that I would make for the Cfl games are as follows.

Toronto -3 points to -4

Winnipeg -5

Saskatchewan Pick

Montreal -6

I will write a recap of Week 2 and the teams for this week