Per sharp football analysis
Scott Novak’s Impact on Saints at Panthers
The opening game of the MNF double-header gives us the Carolina Panthers hosting the divisional rival New Orleans Saints.
Let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Scott Novak will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
Novak called an above league average 52.8% of his overall penalties on home teams in 2022. He assessed 66% of overall penalties on the home team Vikings in their Week 1 loss against the Buccaneers.
The Panthers were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL in Week 1 of the season. Their offense committed most of these.
Pre-snap penalties were an issue for Carolina in 2022, and that continued to start the 2023 season. The Panthers committed four pre-snap penalties in their loss at the Falcons. One was declined with the net total resulting in three pre-snap penalties. The Panthers aren’t talented enough to overcome these errors.
Delay of game penalties are a point of emphasis with Novak. He has ranked in the top three of all referees calling this infraction in three of his four seasons as a head referee, including 2022.
As detailed in the Sharp 2023 Football Preview, the Saints improved dramatically from a penalty perspective over the final month of the 2022 season. They weren’t great in Week 1 against the Titans, committing seven penalties. They did, however, avoid the big penalties like unnecessary roughness and roughing the passer, which plagued them in 2022.
The Bottom Line:
Home teams were a league-worst 4-12 ATS (25%) with Novak in 2022 and are 0-1 ATS to start 2023. In his career, home teams are just 21-41-2 ATS (35%).
Home teams in divisional matchups are 5-18 ATS (22%) in Novak’s career. They were 0-6 ATS in 2022. Three of those six teams were home underdogs like the Carolina Panthers will be on MNF.
Novak was 11-5 under the total in 2022, with the final score averaging a league low 38.5 points. That trend continued in Week 1 with the Buccaneers at Vikings game staying under the total.
