Are you joking PROP!?!?

[metsrp86]

<table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"><td valign="top" width="120">4/24/2009 6:05 PM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Hernandez vs Reyes - most total bases Single=1,Double=2,Triple=3,HR=4.Game must go 8½ innings if home team is winning or 9 innings if road team is winning for action .Extra Innings count. Game not completed=NA action.Max wager $300.Both Players+ listed Starting Pitchers must start for action</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td width="55" align="center">165</td> <td width="300">Anderson Hernandez </td> <td width="65"> +120 </td> <td width="200">
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="55" align="center">
166</td> <td width="300">Joe Reyes </td> <td width="65"> -150</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[GWarner27]

they must know something

 

[metsrp86]

Jose Reyes Career Against Olsen: .400 AVG in 35 ABs

Anderson Hernandez shouldnt even be in the majors. He is a great defensive player, but woeful offensively. He's hitting .207 this year (.228 career hitter), and is facing Johan Santana tonight (AH is is 1 for 4 against him).

This prop should be at least -200, and I would still consider playing it.

And they better not cancel this bc theres no "Joe" Reyes on the Mets.

 

[cubsker]

reyes avg. 2.05 bases per game last year
In the 17 games that Hernandez had 3 or more plate appearances last year, he avg. 1.77 bases per game last year.

In other words, your edge is nowhere near what you think.

 

[metsrp86]

reyes avg. 2.05 bases per game last year
In the 17 games that Hernandez had 3 or more plate appearances last year, he avg. 1.77 bases per game last year.

In other words, your edge is nowhere near what you think.

Last year was an aberration IMO. He was a .203 hitter in 479 ABs in AAA last year. The stats hes compiled were mostly in September when he probably faced a bunch of other Sept callups, so I dont put much weight into that.

Books tend to not go higher than -150ish on these props from my general observation over the last couple weeks. To me its a perfect storm (Bad hitter vs. Great pitcher and Very good hitter vs. Bad pitcher)

 

[metsrp86]

Hernandez strikes out, Reyes hits a double...2-0 reyes

 

[scarf31]

Mets.....want to give you some serious props. I never play props, but you bringing this to the forefront and an analysis of the stats was enough for me to max bet this at The Greek. Thanks boss. I got it at -155, but as soon as I max bet it, it went to -175.

Great analysis and anytime you see mistakes the man makes like this.....keep bringing it to the forefront.

Thanks for bringing it up my friend.:cheers:

 

[metsrp86]

Thanks Scarf

This was just a no brainer. Ive seen Hernandez play with the Mets, and I know he is not a major league hitter. At worst, this bet would be a push IMO. Hernandez had 5 ABs today and he struck out twice, and didnt get the ball out of the infield (2 were weak grounders to the pitcher).

Ill definitely post any others that stand out to me. I try to look for disparate pitching matchups like this. Then, look for the matching disparate hitting matchup. They are tough to find, but tonight was an easy one.

Congrats to us both!
:cheers:

:hammer:

 

[wreck]

that was a good play mets. nice read.

Saw your thread earlier. Plus for the insight.

 

[metsrp86]

<table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr bgcolor="#003366"><td valign="top" width="120">4/25/2009 12:05 PM</td> <td valign="top" width="500">Johnson vs Reyes - most total bases Single=1,Double=2,Triple=3,HR=4.Game must go 8½ innings if home team is winning or 9 innings if road team is winning for action .Extra Innings count. Game not completed=NA action.Max wager $300.Both Players+ listed Starting Pitchers must start for action</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td width="55" align="center">165</td> <td width="300">Nick Johnson </td> <td width="65"> +105 </td> <td width="200"> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="620" border="0" bordercolor="#000000" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td width="55" align="center">166</td> <td width="300">Joe Reyes </td> <td width="65"> -135 </td> <td width="200">
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[metsrp86]

The books learn fast huh. All other props are the same for this game as they were last night except this one.

 

[metsrp86]

Thanks t/wreck

 

[scarf31]

The books learn fast huh. All other props are the same for this game as they were last night except this one.

No doubt my friend. Like I said, after I bet the Hernandez/Reyes prop last night it jumped 20 cents from 155 to 175.

I think it's a myth that books don't make mistakes. They definitely do, and usually IMO it's in spots such as these odd prop and gimmicky bets. If you're keeping your eye out like you were last night, there's definitely going to be a couple of value plays.

No surprise they yanked that prop for today and switched players vs/ Reyes. Truth be told, Johnson is the best player on that team and I wouldn't go near a prop w/him vs. Reyes today, but I bet they'll get a ton of Reyes money just b/c of last night.

 

[metsrp86]

I agree all the value on Nick Johnson today. Though I try to stay away from players who tend to walk alot. The ideal player is a Vlad Guerrero type you always puts the ball in play and has power. Theres no better player to fade than Jason Giambi when hes slumping. He gets into prolonged slumps and hot streaks, but he always gets alot of walks.