April Baseball

[guaranteeed]

0-0

Cincinatti -111 (Cueto/Weaver)
Oakland -106 (Anderson/Felix)
NYY/Bos o8 +102
Col/Mil o8 -104

For April mostly focusing on guys who I either like a lot this year or have a history of success/struggles in APril

Cueto the last 2 seasons during his first 5 starts allowed 4 and 8 runs

in Weaver's case just not a fan of him this year, especially in the bandbox that is GABP

from fangraphs

Average fastball velocity last year was just 87.8, down by more than a mile per hour from his previous season and a career low. A SwStk% the second lowest of his career, F-Strike% down from his previous two seasons, Zone% in free fall and a career worst and strikeout rate the lowest he has posted since 2007. How long can he possibly sustain a .250 or lower BABIP? Will his HR/FB rate continue to sit below 9% every season? Will he keep stranding runners at a mid-to-high 70% clip?

when the price is right he will be a fade for me

Anderson is a play for me at home all the time when healthy, great GB rate + spacious park + Mariners

overs are just based on 3 of the pitchers being early season strugglers, and Chacin I don't think is very good, I expect them all to be able to put up 4 runs
April ERAs

CC 4.12
Lester 4.10
4.14

 

[~Utah]

GL teed

hope to see you post all year

Also

interested in any of my Pirates

 

[Schrute]

GL this year teed

 

[guaranteeed]

2-1 on the day with the A's pending (and down 2-0 as I type)

Texas -1.5 -111 (Darvish/Harrell)

I am 100% in on Yu this year

his best stretch was the last month of the season

6 starts, 9 ER
49 K's in 43.2ip

most people thought he would start hot and break down at the end of the year, but after a rough month he got better than he had been. I think he pitches like that all year and is on JVs level.

Harrell doesn't strike enough guys out, and with this Rangers lineup I think when they put the ball in play they do it with LDs and power

I like them to put up a big number tomorrow and Yu to keep the Astros low

 

[Elbutre88]

gl teed. like the rangers here today as well.

 

[guaranteeed]

Yu performed great as expected (although a bit better than I hoped for)

Toronto -1 -129 (Morrow/Ubaldo)
SF/LAD o6.5 -110
Philly +115 (Halladay/Maholm)


gotta be somewhat quick here

Ubaldo was a mess last year, hasn't been good in 2.5 years, his HR/FB was a bit unlucky last year but he doesn't get ground balls anymore, against a team with power like the Jays I think he has big issues.

Morrow when healthy is a stud

Think this total is kind of crazy, Lincecum hasn't been great in a year, and his stuff showed no improvement in spring

<offer style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: verdana, helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">His stuff was about where it was late last year, but I think the concerns about him having difficulty pitching off that fastball in a starting role are legitimate.Lincecum was mostly 90-91 mph with his heater, hitting a few 92s but nothing higher that I saw, and that was the pitch that gave him the most trouble, as he wasn't commanding it and it doesn't have any kind of plane to keep a hitter from squaring it up for a line drive or a long fly ball.
</offer>When Lincecum was younger and throwing harder, his fastball was still straight, but it was more explosive up in the zone and hitters were more apt to swing through it. Now Lincecum has to rely more on his off-speed stuff, using his slider more heavily on Tuesday, most in the 83-85 range and breaking hard down in the zone or into the dirt. It's a strong pitch, an eye-level changer that generates swings and misses on its own, but he can't throw 40 of them a game, and he even indicated last spring that the pitch is hard on his elbow.

I imagine he's in relief by next year if not sooner

Beckett I actually like quite a bit this year to bounce back, but I still don't think he gets back to being an ace and the Giants should get some play off him

 

[bloodhound]

BOL teeeed

 

[guaranteeed]

gotta be quick today

NYY +170 Hughes/Scherzer
Houston +111 Colon/Norris
Minnesota +134 Worley/Tillman
SD +131 Ross/Garland

 

[Elbutre88]

love the twinkles today. GL teed.

 

[Play2win]

may join ya on SD, bol today

 

[guaranteeed]

Wash/Cin u7 -113
Brewers ev Kennedy/Gallardo
NYY +176 CC/JV
Toronto -125 Dickey/Lester
Texas -131 Yu/Weaver

 

[bloodhound]

GL teeed on 3 of them with U

 

[guaranteeed]

CWS +146 Peavy/Gio
Oak +141 Parker/Wilson
Col/SF o7 -110 Nicasio/Lincecum




for Lincecum see thoughts in post 6, in addition to that in his first start he didn't show anything different

46 balls and 46 strikers, 7 walks in 5 innings, only 3 ground ball outs

 

[hugh613]

Good luck teeed.

 

[guaranteeed]

Mil +156 Gallardo/Wainwright
TB +114 Price/Lester
TOR +116 Dickey/Shields
Det/Oak u7 -115
SF -1.5 +142 Bumgarner/Samardzija

 

[guaranteeed]

Pitt +114 Burnett/Miller

Really like this value on AJ, both have pitched well this year but to me this is priced on Burnett's record and moderately high ERA (3.7) when he's been unlucky with babip, he has 27 strikeouts so far this year in 17 innings and he was great last year at home, like both guys but strictly value on the way Burnett is pitching

Toronto -124 Happ/Quintana

Happ has been off on a great start this year, 1 bad inning vs KC but he settled down right after it, he's thrown his change a lot more this year, they worked on it in spring and he's thrown it 19% of the time so far this year compared to 12% in his career, I think it helps his other pitches as well

CWS struggled vs LHP the last 2 seasons as well

 

[guaranteeed]

Atlanta -132 Maholm/McDonald

Maholm's numbers in the last 10 months speak for themselves, adding in the slider has made him such a bigger threat for swing and a miss

Baltimore -111 Hammel/Ryu

SD +144 Richard/Lincecum

Oakland/TB u8 -115

 

[Grind_4_Mine]

GL Teeeed

 

[guaranteeed]

TB -110 Moore/Floyd
Arizona -1 -112 Miley/Francis
Seattle -1 -107 Felix/Blanton
SF -104 Zito/Stults
Baltimore +134 Tillman/Griffen

 

[cashflowmatters]

Nice looking card, gl on the action today & always