JPicks
Pretty much a regular
1-2 +0.00 Units Yesterday
Yesterday went as expected minus a great pitcing performance by Zach Duke. I'll give him credit as he pitched much better than I expected. It is worth noting that already two days into the season the bullpens have affected all three of the games I've been on. Really need to start putting in the time to sort out who's made what teams in reference to the pens. Astos pen looked shaky yesterday while Hawkins had a nice blowup in Colorado.
I'll say right now that we should all take advantage of any more O/U's in Colorado that below the 10 mark. Two sinkerball pitchers yesterday and they still threw up 14 on the scoreboard. I think the days of the old Coors field will be back this year with a better Colorado lineup. Hope you all had a chance to see Chris Young's catch/drop of his glove over the center field wall yesterday. Look for it on youtube if you haven't.
On to today:
Might be a homer pick, but either way I'll be taking the
SF Giants (-106)
SF Giants (-110) First 5 Innings
Lots of reasons for me liking this game.
Peavy's 4.14 ERA .271 BAA at AT&T Park
Peavy's 4.61 Road ERA
Peavy's not the greatest day starter in the world.
Padres starters are 12 for 58 lifetime with Cruz Jr. being 2 for 17 and Cameron being 7 for 30. Take those two guys away and the other 6 only have 7 career AB's vs. Zito. The unfamiliarity should help the latter bet for sure.
Roberts and Vizquel. Both hit over .300 vs Peavy and with Bonds hitting 3rd I can see Peavy getting into trouble early. Bonds is obviously ready to go and I won't be surprised if he gets the season started off with an opening day shot. He's owned the Pads in years past although that has nothing to do with today.
The G-Men have won their last 6 home openers and 4 of those have come against the Padres.
Did I mention Barry Bonds. Regardless of what you think about him he's still a looming threat in the lineup.
Giants have plenty of bullpen problems this year and it'll decide whether they're a threat for the NL West or at the bottom of the division. Played the 5 inning line because the Giants will go thru the top of their order twice with Vizquel, Roberts and Bonds. I'm thinking that it'll take the Padres two times thru the order to get a good read on Zito.
Early Leans for the evening... Added at 5:10
Colorado. (-134) O 10 (-110)
Not a fan of Livan and I don't think the Rockies go 0-2 to start the season at home. Probably start playing Coors' overs until they get back to the 11's and 12's.
Marlins No Play.
Think Olsen may put it all together this year. Funny how highly touted prospects have a ton of love their first year and the second year everbody is down on them if things don't go perfect. Nats are weak and now they lose Logan and Guzman on opening day. Lopez probably going to move to SS and the late switch isn't going to help him at the plate any.
Pirates +160
I'm not sure the Jason Jennings is much better than Ian Snell. Snell had a phenomenal ST with a 1.68 ERA and a 18/5 K/BB ratio. Big deal it's spring training. Well I actually put a bit of value into ST stats when it involves younger pitchers. Snell didn't give up a run over his last three starts and I think it carries over to Houston. Meanwhile Jennings has a career ERA over 10 at Minute Maid. Not sure why the Astros are so sure he's going to pitch any better there than in Coors. He's started in Houston 3 times, obviously against Houston, and been shelled all three times. Significant value at +160. Also the Astros bullpen has some holes as we saw yesterday.
A's +100 2 Units
Joe Blanton own's the Mariners. The A's own Washburn. The A's own the Mariners. Don't see the M's going 2-0 vs. the A's.
Cards (-107)
Kip Wells is another pitcher that I'm pretty high on after a great ST. If LaRussa think he's been good enough to get the 2nd spot in the rotation then I'll trust him. Hope he wasn't drinking when he made the decision. Like the Rockies I don't see the Cards starting 0-2 at home. Yet another fade of a Hernandez brother.
Baltimore/Minny U 9.5 (-120)
Haven't looked much at totals yet.
GL to All minus the assholes on the other side of my bets.
Yesterday went as expected minus a great pitcing performance by Zach Duke. I'll give him credit as he pitched much better than I expected. It is worth noting that already two days into the season the bullpens have affected all three of the games I've been on. Really need to start putting in the time to sort out who's made what teams in reference to the pens. Astos pen looked shaky yesterday while Hawkins had a nice blowup in Colorado.
I'll say right now that we should all take advantage of any more O/U's in Colorado that below the 10 mark. Two sinkerball pitchers yesterday and they still threw up 14 on the scoreboard. I think the days of the old Coors field will be back this year with a better Colorado lineup. Hope you all had a chance to see Chris Young's catch/drop of his glove over the center field wall yesterday. Look for it on youtube if you haven't.
On to today:
Might be a homer pick, but either way I'll be taking the
SF Giants (-106)
SF Giants (-110) First 5 Innings
Lots of reasons for me liking this game.
Peavy's 4.14 ERA .271 BAA at AT&T Park
Peavy's 4.61 Road ERA
Peavy's not the greatest day starter in the world.
Padres starters are 12 for 58 lifetime with Cruz Jr. being 2 for 17 and Cameron being 7 for 30. Take those two guys away and the other 6 only have 7 career AB's vs. Zito. The unfamiliarity should help the latter bet for sure.
Roberts and Vizquel. Both hit over .300 vs Peavy and with Bonds hitting 3rd I can see Peavy getting into trouble early. Bonds is obviously ready to go and I won't be surprised if he gets the season started off with an opening day shot. He's owned the Pads in years past although that has nothing to do with today.
The G-Men have won their last 6 home openers and 4 of those have come against the Padres.
Did I mention Barry Bonds. Regardless of what you think about him he's still a looming threat in the lineup.
Giants have plenty of bullpen problems this year and it'll decide whether they're a threat for the NL West or at the bottom of the division. Played the 5 inning line because the Giants will go thru the top of their order twice with Vizquel, Roberts and Bonds. I'm thinking that it'll take the Padres two times thru the order to get a good read on Zito.
Early Leans for the evening... Added at 5:10
Colorado. (-134) O 10 (-110)
Not a fan of Livan and I don't think the Rockies go 0-2 to start the season at home. Probably start playing Coors' overs until they get back to the 11's and 12's.
Marlins No Play.
Think Olsen may put it all together this year. Funny how highly touted prospects have a ton of love their first year and the second year everbody is down on them if things don't go perfect. Nats are weak and now they lose Logan and Guzman on opening day. Lopez probably going to move to SS and the late switch isn't going to help him at the plate any.
Pirates +160
I'm not sure the Jason Jennings is much better than Ian Snell. Snell had a phenomenal ST with a 1.68 ERA and a 18/5 K/BB ratio. Big deal it's spring training. Well I actually put a bit of value into ST stats when it involves younger pitchers. Snell didn't give up a run over his last three starts and I think it carries over to Houston. Meanwhile Jennings has a career ERA over 10 at Minute Maid. Not sure why the Astros are so sure he's going to pitch any better there than in Coors. He's started in Houston 3 times, obviously against Houston, and been shelled all three times. Significant value at +160. Also the Astros bullpen has some holes as we saw yesterday.
A's +100 2 Units
Joe Blanton own's the Mariners. The A's own Washburn. The A's own the Mariners. Don't see the M's going 2-0 vs. the A's.
Cards (-107)
Kip Wells is another pitcher that I'm pretty high on after a great ST. If LaRussa think he's been good enough to get the 2nd spot in the rotation then I'll trust him. Hope he wasn't drinking when he made the decision. Like the Rockies I don't see the Cards starting 0-2 at home. Yet another fade of a Hernandez brother.
Baltimore/Minny U 9.5 (-120)
Haven't looked much at totals yet.
GL to All minus the assholes on the other side of my bets.
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