App State Will Overwhelm Underdog Cajuns in Sun Belt Title Game
Louisiana-Lafayette (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs Appalachian State (9-2 SU, 7-2-2 ATS)
Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
NCAAF Pick: Mountaineers -17.5
ULL and App State will meet in Boone for the second time this season. On October 20, the Mountaineers beat ULL 27-17, failing to cover as 25-point favorites. Oddsmakers have made a reasonable adjustment by making this spread 7.5 points lower because the Mountaineers were up by 17 points until they allowed the Cajuns to score a garbage-time touchdown at the end of regulation. The Mountaineers, though, were likely looking ahead to their upcoming game because they had to face their fierce rival Georgia Southern on a short week. This Saturday, they will concentrate fully on the Cajuns and show the oddsmakers’ adjustment to be a mistake by dominating the Cajuns on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the Mountaineers call the 20th-highest frequency of run plays. They lean primarily on Darrynton Evans, who averages 6.5 YCP and has almost eclipsed 1,000 yards, and backup Marcus Williams, who adds 4.8 YPC. Plus, quarterback Zac Thomas is a threat with his legs. As a team, they rank 14th in YPC. When they played the Cajuns, they ran 266 yards on 5.5 YPC even though Thomas had a poor passing performance. The Cajuns are easy to bully because of the low quality of their defensive line which also struggled last year and saw a number of players depart in the offseason. They rank in the bottom 10, for instance, in power success rate and stuff rate, meaning that they rarely stop an opposing running back on third and short and rarely stop him at or behind the line of scrimmage. As a result, ULL ranks 100th in opposing YPC.
Thomas underperformed in the regular season outing against the Cajuns. Likewise, leading receiver Corey Sutton only had one reception in the game. Both players, though, have lately enjoyed chemistry with each other. Sutton achieved 173 yards and nine receptions in his past two games and Thomas threw for five touchdowns and zero interceptions. ULL will expect App State to run first, which is why it’s important for the Mountaineers to pass well, especially on first down, in order to keep the defense honest, create more manageable third down situations, and avoid longer third down conversion attempts, where the opposing pass rush becomes more of a threat. Thomas’ passer rating on first downs is 170 this season. Plus, the offensive line excels on standard downs based on yards per carry.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">That feeling in the locker room after you win the division!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/10Strong?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#10Strong</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RQ2K18?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#RQ2K18</a> <a href="https://t.co/htjh8vL3U3">pic.twitter.com/htjh8vL3U3</a></p>— App State Football (@AppState_FB) <a href=" ">25. November 2018</a></blockquote>
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App’s receivers are strong and well-sized enough to deal with the physicality of Louisiana’s secondary. Plus, App has a variety of receivers besides Sutton with which to threaten all parts of the field. Three different receivers besides Sutton have produced over 20 receptions and 10 yards per catch. Besides, tight end Collin Reed, another well-sized target for Thomas, is growing into a threat in the passing game. The talent disparity between App’s receivers and ULL’s secondary is immense. ULL ranks 118th in opposing passer rating. Its struggles in stopping the pass are unsurprising considering how poor it was last year. Plus, it had to replace four departed starters.
The Cajuns are also run-first. They feature a very physical running back in Trey Ragas. Ragas had one of his worst games of the season against App State in terms of YPC, though, because the Mountaineers are able to surpass the physicality of ULL’s rush attack. The defensive line thrives on standard downs and ranks fifth in power success rate. It also stuffs the opposing running back at or behind the line of scrimmage with the 42nd-highest frequency. The linebackers also have the size and strength to contain ULL’s power running. Anthony Flory, a preseason all-conference first teamer, is the crew’s senior leader. Jordan Fehr became strong enough to remain healthy and has also developed in a greater role. App State’s front seven has a high havoc rate and excels at penetrating into the opposing backfield, which can prevent Ragas from developing the running momentum with which his physicality becomes dangerous. ULL is one of the higher-ranked teams in converting third downs because of its running success on early downs. App State, whose run defense allows fewer than four YPC, will be able to avoid shorter third down conversion attempts and force ULL into uncomfortably long-distanced passing situations.
The Mountaineers have shown the ability to score into the 40’s when both their pass attack and rush attack work and even when Thomas doesn’t do too much. Defensively, they allow only 12.8 points per game at home. Focused on ULL, they will beat its physicality on both sides of the ball.
Louisiana-Lafayette (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) vs Appalachian State (9-2 SU, 7-2-2 ATS)
Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
NCAAF Pick: Mountaineers -17.5
ULL and App State will meet in Boone for the second time this season. On October 20, the Mountaineers beat ULL 27-17, failing to cover as 25-point favorites. Oddsmakers have made a reasonable adjustment by making this spread 7.5 points lower because the Mountaineers were up by 17 points until they allowed the Cajuns to score a garbage-time touchdown at the end of regulation. The Mountaineers, though, were likely looking ahead to their upcoming game because they had to face their fierce rival Georgia Southern on a short week. This Saturday, they will concentrate fully on the Cajuns and show the oddsmakers’ adjustment to be a mistake by dominating the Cajuns on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, the Mountaineers call the 20th-highest frequency of run plays. They lean primarily on Darrynton Evans, who averages 6.5 YCP and has almost eclipsed 1,000 yards, and backup Marcus Williams, who adds 4.8 YPC. Plus, quarterback Zac Thomas is a threat with his legs. As a team, they rank 14th in YPC. When they played the Cajuns, they ran 266 yards on 5.5 YPC even though Thomas had a poor passing performance. The Cajuns are easy to bully because of the low quality of their defensive line which also struggled last year and saw a number of players depart in the offseason. They rank in the bottom 10, for instance, in power success rate and stuff rate, meaning that they rarely stop an opposing running back on third and short and rarely stop him at or behind the line of scrimmage. As a result, ULL ranks 100th in opposing YPC.
Thomas underperformed in the regular season outing against the Cajuns. Likewise, leading receiver Corey Sutton only had one reception in the game. Both players, though, have lately enjoyed chemistry with each other. Sutton achieved 173 yards and nine receptions in his past two games and Thomas threw for five touchdowns and zero interceptions. ULL will expect App State to run first, which is why it’s important for the Mountaineers to pass well, especially on first down, in order to keep the defense honest, create more manageable third down situations, and avoid longer third down conversion attempts, where the opposing pass rush becomes more of a threat. Thomas’ passer rating on first downs is 170 this season. Plus, the offensive line excels on standard downs based on yards per carry.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="de"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">That feeling in the locker room after you win the division!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/10Strong?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#10Strong</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RQ2K18?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#RQ2K18</a> <a href="https://t.co/htjh8vL3U3">pic.twitter.com/htjh8vL3U3</a></p>— App State Football (@AppState_FB) <a href=" ">25. November 2018</a></blockquote>
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App’s receivers are strong and well-sized enough to deal with the physicality of Louisiana’s secondary. Plus, App has a variety of receivers besides Sutton with which to threaten all parts of the field. Three different receivers besides Sutton have produced over 20 receptions and 10 yards per catch. Besides, tight end Collin Reed, another well-sized target for Thomas, is growing into a threat in the passing game. The talent disparity between App’s receivers and ULL’s secondary is immense. ULL ranks 118th in opposing passer rating. Its struggles in stopping the pass are unsurprising considering how poor it was last year. Plus, it had to replace four departed starters.
The Cajuns are also run-first. They feature a very physical running back in Trey Ragas. Ragas had one of his worst games of the season against App State in terms of YPC, though, because the Mountaineers are able to surpass the physicality of ULL’s rush attack. The defensive line thrives on standard downs and ranks fifth in power success rate. It also stuffs the opposing running back at or behind the line of scrimmage with the 42nd-highest frequency. The linebackers also have the size and strength to contain ULL’s power running. Anthony Flory, a preseason all-conference first teamer, is the crew’s senior leader. Jordan Fehr became strong enough to remain healthy and has also developed in a greater role. App State’s front seven has a high havoc rate and excels at penetrating into the opposing backfield, which can prevent Ragas from developing the running momentum with which his physicality becomes dangerous. ULL is one of the higher-ranked teams in converting third downs because of its running success on early downs. App State, whose run defense allows fewer than four YPC, will be able to avoid shorter third down conversion attempts and force ULL into uncomfortably long-distanced passing situations.
The Mountaineers have shown the ability to score into the 40’s when both their pass attack and rush attack work and even when Thomas doesn’t do too much. Defensively, they allow only 12.8 points per game at home. Focused on ULL, they will beat its physicality on both sides of the ball.
