gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Been a busy offseason for me as I have a new baby and a new business, so capping has taken a backseat, as will playing a bunch of games this season. Will likely just wager in spots, and doubt I will have a dedicated weekly thread like the last few seasons. Not sure they were all that helpful anyway.
I have some thoughts on a few teams in the SEC, but haven't really had time to read much that isn't Alabama related. What's everyone thinking?
My Alabama thoughts (this might be as homerific as Silky's FSU preview):
QB: the assumption is that Jake Coker is going to come right in and seize the reins of the team and embark on a record-breaking campaign. As Mr Corso says, not so fast. If you looked at it realistically, Coker struggling is to be expected. He's still learning the coaches, his teammates, the practice routine, the schedule and the school itself. Not to mention the playbook. Blake Sims has made this battle a lot more competitive than most would have thought. I expect that by mid-season, Coker is the starter. All we know with him is that he is as physically gifted as any QB in the country. Whether or not he has it between the ears, especially once the lights come on, remains to be seen. My guess is that they split snaps close to 50/50 against WVU, then whoever is trending will get slightly more snaps moving forward until game 4 against UF, in which I predict there will be a clear starter. And like I said, I expect it to be Coker
OL: OL play is what's going to determine our season IMO. We know what we have in Arie Kouandjio (LG), Ryan Kelly (C), and Austin Sheppard (RT): solid SEC players, but yet to show anything approaching all-SEC. In the other two spots, we have a true freshman at LT (Cam Robinson) which is terrifying, and the battle for RG is ongoing, mainly due to injury to the 2 leading candidates. The ability of this group to gel and become a physical presence will ease the growing pains and ease the job of whomever ends up taking the snaps
RB: Best group in the country? Possibly. Listening to our fans, you'd think TJ Yeldon sucks. If he stays healthy, he'll likely leave Tuscaloosa as the all-time leading rusher. People are understandably excited about Derrick Henry. He's a freak athlete. Since he's not expected to be the #1 guy, he has the luxury to learn and work hard with less pressure. He appears to have the right attitude and work ethic, and I think he'll be a special player. The third back, and one that will become a household name is Kenyan Drake. He has largely spent his time at Alabama in Saban's doghouse, which has limited his chances to play. After a run-in with the police this spring, it appears he finally gets it, and has kept a low profile since. He has been the statistical star of our two fall scrimmages, and he brings a different element to our offense than Yeldon and Henry. It sounds like Kiffin is going to call plays that get him the ball in space, much like Reggie Bush at USC. Drake's not Bush, but he is very talented.
WR/TE: Another strong group. Amari Cooper is one of the top WR in the country, if not the top. The reports from this offseason have been great to hear on Amari: lots of time with the QBs and playbook, working out before the team workouts, etc. The kid wants to be the first WR taken in the NFL Draft. Behind him are some solid WR in Christion Jones, DeAndrew White, and Chris Black. A name I expect to surface this season is Robert Foster. He's the next star. At TE, Oj Howard is a beast. Fits into the new mold of pass catching TE. But in Saban's offense, the TE has to be a physical blocker. That's why you often see two TE sets, with the interior TE more of a OT than pass catcher. We haven't filled that role since Michael Williams left after the 2012 season. We have some bodies there, but I haven't seen anything to get excited about yet. Converted DL Dakota Ball has been practicing there this fall with some success, so maybe he will work out. I'm not holding my breath on Brian Vogler or Brandon Greene
DL: Like the OL, the projected starters haven't been able to practice much together due to injury and/or suspension, which is concerning and could delay their development. I think A'Shawn Robinson and Jonathan Allen are studs. We still don't have a dominant NT, but Brandon Ivory is serviceable (though he was one of the suspensions and may not start right away). We have as good of depth as we've had on the DL in the Saban era, but much of it is inexperienced, if not talented. Dashawn Hand, DJ Pettway, and Jarran Reed should all factor heavily in the rotation. I'm excited for this group to be the best DL we've had in a few years, but won't believe it until I see it on the field
LB: Always going to be strong here. We will miss CJ Mosley for sure, but Trey DePriest brings experience and leadership to the middle. Another unit with tons of talent, but short on experience. Dillon Lee looks to be the breakout performer here. There have been a lot of positive reports of Rashaan Evans being a special player
DB: This is the group that ultimately cost us a chance at the national championship. Part of was injury and part of it was inexperience. Cyrus Jones was in over his head last year as a first year starter and converted WR. Losing Sunseri hurt us against Auburn, and losing HCD hurt us against OU. The good news is, there has been an influx of talent with Tony Brown and Marlon Humphrey coming in. Two true CBs. Brown was in for the spring, and I expect him to be a starter at some point this season. We have much better depth this season at CB, so I don't expect it to be as weak as last year. We are a little thin at safety, but Landon Collins is awesome. The other safety spots will be manned by seniors Jarrick Williams and Nick Perry. Neither are game changers, but being seniors, they should be in the right spot more times than not. Geno Smith will get a lot of playing time in nickel and dime packages.
ST: Actually the group I'm most excited about based on fall camp reports. We all know what an abortion our kicking game was last season. It was actually ok until the disaster in November. And things didn't look promising at the spring game either. But, Adam Griffith has been great in the fall. It has been said that Saban and staff have ruined some PKs by changing their mechanics to kick it higher and faster, and it really messed with Griffith's head, but that he went home this summer and worked with his former kicking coach, and he's gotten his confidence back. We will have a true freshman punter, and he's replacing a great P from last year. In the last scrimmage, he had a punt that went 65 yards in the air. Kid can boom it. Hopefully he still can when there's a bunch of angry men running at him. Coverage units should be fine with all those talented young guys wanting to make a name for themselves
Overall: One of the most talented 1-85s in the country. If the OL can protect, whomever is the QB will have a great shot of a fantastic season because of all the playmaking talent. I'm interested to see, and a little nervous, about how Lane Kiffin will do on our staff. It seems it can only be really good or spectacularly bad. I'm thinking that Saban is such a control freak that if things go sour, LK will be relieved of some responsibilities before things spiral out of control, but hopefully it won't be an issue. The defense has the ability to get back to the 2009-2012 level we have been accustomed to. Am confident (praying) that ST will not lose a game for us. The schedule sets up well with the two byes splitting the season into 3 4 game segments, and the byes coming before our two biggest road tests (Ole Miss and LSU). Further, the QB battle likely gets decided during games against WVU, FAU, and S. Miss, which should be low-stress games and confidence builders. Schedule also doesn't look too daunting in terms of overall difficulty, but who knows how tough teams like UF, Ole Miss, Miss St, aTm, and even Tennessee will end up being. I love what I'm hearing Saban saying in his pressers about the attitude and work ethic of this team. I think they may have some of the drive that was missing in large parts from last season, which could make up for some of the loss of talent and experience
Prediction: 11-1, winning the SEC West. I would think they'd be favored over the SEC East team, and an SEC title gets them into the playoff. I think 12-0 is a possibility with some good luck and few injuries, but I can't predict undefeated because it doesn't happen very often. Also think this team could slip to 9-3 or 8-4 if the QB thing turns out to be a disaster
Sorry for the length and the homerism. But I do think we're gonna be pretty good.
I have some thoughts on a few teams in the SEC, but haven't really had time to read much that isn't Alabama related. What's everyone thinking?
My Alabama thoughts (this might be as homerific as Silky's FSU preview):
QB: the assumption is that Jake Coker is going to come right in and seize the reins of the team and embark on a record-breaking campaign. As Mr Corso says, not so fast. If you looked at it realistically, Coker struggling is to be expected. He's still learning the coaches, his teammates, the practice routine, the schedule and the school itself. Not to mention the playbook. Blake Sims has made this battle a lot more competitive than most would have thought. I expect that by mid-season, Coker is the starter. All we know with him is that he is as physically gifted as any QB in the country. Whether or not he has it between the ears, especially once the lights come on, remains to be seen. My guess is that they split snaps close to 50/50 against WVU, then whoever is trending will get slightly more snaps moving forward until game 4 against UF, in which I predict there will be a clear starter. And like I said, I expect it to be Coker
OL: OL play is what's going to determine our season IMO. We know what we have in Arie Kouandjio (LG), Ryan Kelly (C), and Austin Sheppard (RT): solid SEC players, but yet to show anything approaching all-SEC. In the other two spots, we have a true freshman at LT (Cam Robinson) which is terrifying, and the battle for RG is ongoing, mainly due to injury to the 2 leading candidates. The ability of this group to gel and become a physical presence will ease the growing pains and ease the job of whomever ends up taking the snaps
RB: Best group in the country? Possibly. Listening to our fans, you'd think TJ Yeldon sucks. If he stays healthy, he'll likely leave Tuscaloosa as the all-time leading rusher. People are understandably excited about Derrick Henry. He's a freak athlete. Since he's not expected to be the #1 guy, he has the luxury to learn and work hard with less pressure. He appears to have the right attitude and work ethic, and I think he'll be a special player. The third back, and one that will become a household name is Kenyan Drake. He has largely spent his time at Alabama in Saban's doghouse, which has limited his chances to play. After a run-in with the police this spring, it appears he finally gets it, and has kept a low profile since. He has been the statistical star of our two fall scrimmages, and he brings a different element to our offense than Yeldon and Henry. It sounds like Kiffin is going to call plays that get him the ball in space, much like Reggie Bush at USC. Drake's not Bush, but he is very talented.
WR/TE: Another strong group. Amari Cooper is one of the top WR in the country, if not the top. The reports from this offseason have been great to hear on Amari: lots of time with the QBs and playbook, working out before the team workouts, etc. The kid wants to be the first WR taken in the NFL Draft. Behind him are some solid WR in Christion Jones, DeAndrew White, and Chris Black. A name I expect to surface this season is Robert Foster. He's the next star. At TE, Oj Howard is a beast. Fits into the new mold of pass catching TE. But in Saban's offense, the TE has to be a physical blocker. That's why you often see two TE sets, with the interior TE more of a OT than pass catcher. We haven't filled that role since Michael Williams left after the 2012 season. We have some bodies there, but I haven't seen anything to get excited about yet. Converted DL Dakota Ball has been practicing there this fall with some success, so maybe he will work out. I'm not holding my breath on Brian Vogler or Brandon Greene
DL: Like the OL, the projected starters haven't been able to practice much together due to injury and/or suspension, which is concerning and could delay their development. I think A'Shawn Robinson and Jonathan Allen are studs. We still don't have a dominant NT, but Brandon Ivory is serviceable (though he was one of the suspensions and may not start right away). We have as good of depth as we've had on the DL in the Saban era, but much of it is inexperienced, if not talented. Dashawn Hand, DJ Pettway, and Jarran Reed should all factor heavily in the rotation. I'm excited for this group to be the best DL we've had in a few years, but won't believe it until I see it on the field
LB: Always going to be strong here. We will miss CJ Mosley for sure, but Trey DePriest brings experience and leadership to the middle. Another unit with tons of talent, but short on experience. Dillon Lee looks to be the breakout performer here. There have been a lot of positive reports of Rashaan Evans being a special player
DB: This is the group that ultimately cost us a chance at the national championship. Part of was injury and part of it was inexperience. Cyrus Jones was in over his head last year as a first year starter and converted WR. Losing Sunseri hurt us against Auburn, and losing HCD hurt us against OU. The good news is, there has been an influx of talent with Tony Brown and Marlon Humphrey coming in. Two true CBs. Brown was in for the spring, and I expect him to be a starter at some point this season. We have much better depth this season at CB, so I don't expect it to be as weak as last year. We are a little thin at safety, but Landon Collins is awesome. The other safety spots will be manned by seniors Jarrick Williams and Nick Perry. Neither are game changers, but being seniors, they should be in the right spot more times than not. Geno Smith will get a lot of playing time in nickel and dime packages.
ST: Actually the group I'm most excited about based on fall camp reports. We all know what an abortion our kicking game was last season. It was actually ok until the disaster in November. And things didn't look promising at the spring game either. But, Adam Griffith has been great in the fall. It has been said that Saban and staff have ruined some PKs by changing their mechanics to kick it higher and faster, and it really messed with Griffith's head, but that he went home this summer and worked with his former kicking coach, and he's gotten his confidence back. We will have a true freshman punter, and he's replacing a great P from last year. In the last scrimmage, he had a punt that went 65 yards in the air. Kid can boom it. Hopefully he still can when there's a bunch of angry men running at him. Coverage units should be fine with all those talented young guys wanting to make a name for themselves
Overall: One of the most talented 1-85s in the country. If the OL can protect, whomever is the QB will have a great shot of a fantastic season because of all the playmaking talent. I'm interested to see, and a little nervous, about how Lane Kiffin will do on our staff. It seems it can only be really good or spectacularly bad. I'm thinking that Saban is such a control freak that if things go sour, LK will be relieved of some responsibilities before things spiral out of control, but hopefully it won't be an issue. The defense has the ability to get back to the 2009-2012 level we have been accustomed to. Am confident (praying) that ST will not lose a game for us. The schedule sets up well with the two byes splitting the season into 3 4 game segments, and the byes coming before our two biggest road tests (Ole Miss and LSU). Further, the QB battle likely gets decided during games against WVU, FAU, and S. Miss, which should be low-stress games and confidence builders. Schedule also doesn't look too daunting in terms of overall difficulty, but who knows how tough teams like UF, Ole Miss, Miss St, aTm, and even Tennessee will end up being. I love what I'm hearing Saban saying in his pressers about the attitude and work ethic of this team. I think they may have some of the drive that was missing in large parts from last season, which could make up for some of the loss of talent and experience
Prediction: 11-1, winning the SEC West. I would think they'd be favored over the SEC East team, and an SEC title gets them into the playoff. I think 12-0 is a possibility with some good luck and few injuries, but I can't predict undefeated because it doesn't happen very often. Also think this team could slip to 9-3 or 8-4 if the QB thing turns out to be a disaster
Sorry for the length and the homerism. But I do think we're gonna be pretty good.
