Anyone else wary that everyone is on Florida???

[linewatcher]

Statistically, Psychologically, and Talent-wise, the Gators should roll the Oklahomo Sooners, but something inside me is telling me to just pass on this game. I know Urban Meyer's record in bowl games compared to Stoops, and how dominating the Gators' defense has been this year, and how defense wins championships, but something doesn't feel right...everyone in the world is on Florida--people here, on blankets, and everyone else in the betting world! and while I've strayed from just merely "betting against the public", this high profile game is scaring the crap out of me...

I'd feel like such a chump if the Gators roll by 14+ points, but something deep inside is preventing me from hammering this line....

thoughts?

 

[spanishshark]

I'm not concerned. 83% of the money was coming in on Florida but suddenly the line started adjusting and now sits at Florida -5. Thats a large swing that means books want even money. Had it not adjusted so drastically then it would have thrown a red flag. I think the books will take a bloodbath on this game. Good Luck.

PS. Sometimes the public is right.

 

[broadwayjoe]

could be wrong, but i don't necessarily see the florida side public or looking too easy.

i think the line adjustment has at least a little to do with that texas game finishing off a pretty poor big12 showing overall in the bowl games.

just as "easy" as florida seems to you and other people, it seems just as easy for me to take oklahoma. how many offenses did florida play this year that were truly BALANCED and could put up points? two. bama and ole miss. they struggled through both of those games and lost one. oklahoma's offense is a well-oiled machine that is much better than both of those squads. i think they win rather easily, but i can definitely see why people are on florida as well.

should be a good one. gl

 

[3rd & Long]

I've felt the same way the last few title games, just ignore that little alarm bell and take the win.

 

[Blue_Chip]

No. Florida rolls...

 

[Marlo]

see the signature.

 

[HUNT]

when you do this it's called overanalyzing.

 

[STEED]

Sooners ML

 

[HUNT]

stfu

 

[STEED]

ggf

 

[HUNT]

:thumbsup:

 

[Trueblue]

id laugh my ass off if gators win by 2. These lines are often so damn sharp its not even funny. This game has been capped by the best people a million times. A less then TD fav that is a public darling is never really easy.

 

[HUNT]

line will be 6 or 6.5 by gametime..insane.

 

[Trueblue]

guarantee there will be a 2pt conversion attempt that will prolly fuck up all logical winning margins of 3,6,7,10.

 

[tru]

Sooners ML

smartest post ive seen from u ever

 

[doogie]

smartest post ive seen from u ever

So Tru are you saying you will play the OK ML or at least the plus points?Are you showing your hand to us early?:smiley_acbe:
GL with whatever side you go with.

 

[Kmacc]

I have two coaches that I have said you can not give a month for them to prepare for a big game given equal or close to equal talent on both teams. Those two are Pete Carrol and Urban Meyer. I honestly think this game has the potential to be very close and could come down to the gun but when its all said and done the Gators will be hoisting the trophy. I have Florida -3 tied into a final leg of a pretty big 4 teamer w/ USC, Iowa and Ole Miss so no hedge for me and think the Gators will punch OKlahoma in the mouth and Stoops bunch may not be able to get off the mat. Only way I attempt to hedge is if this line gets to 6 and I can tease Oklahoma +13 and Over 63. GL should be a good one

 

[brewer]

Everyone was on Baltimore and Baltimore beat Miami's ass. That public stuff these online books and SportsInsights feed us is nonsense just trying to confuse us more. Go with what you know is my words of advice and ,if not that, than put your trust into other people's sports betting knowledge whom you trust.

 

[Capt. Slap]

^ Agreed,

I went through a period where I looked into percentages and stuff way too much and it killed me in the long run

 

[J-Dog]

I'm pretty sure there was a lot of money on LSU last year. It seems to work out.

Florida by 2 TDs

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Public percentages really only matter for consideration when there's a collective consensus on a Dog or an Under. When they're on the Fav or the Over, thats simply to be expected as a norm, so wracking your brain to guess when the public is right or wrong simply based on consensus percentages regarding the latter 2 is a waste of time imo.

 

[Tide High]

yeah its one game. books will try to get even action, but sometimes they can't...

don't worry. they'll still be there to take your NBA bets Friday night after we drag their ass through the mud tomorrow with our own big Tebowners

 

[pags11]

yes it concerns me...

 

[MeasyMoney]

when you do this it's called overanalyzing.

i agree. i was trying to talk myself off gators all day, but i dont want to overthink this, gators should step up in the 4th q to take this one home

 

[sharpie]

id laugh my ass off if gators win by 2. These lines are often so damn sharp its not even funny. This game has been capped by the best people a million times. A less then TD fav that is a public darling is never really easy.

exactly right. The big games normally fall pretty close to the number. I think this is a 3-6pt win type of game for either team. :cheers:

 

[FADED]

I agree with Shark, I dont think the % matter if the line adjusts accordingly. Now if the line dropped, then that would be a concern. So far the line rose 2 pts, which would come with the heavy money on UF.

 

[mogo]

well i'm on the sooners and i suck, so that's good news for florida bettors.....

 

[Troutman]

^ Agreed,

I went through a period where I looked into percentages and stuff way too much and it killed me in the long run

Couldnt agree more, cost me the eagles game this weekend.

 

[wizardofodd]

well usually when there is more than one game on the board, public cant lose all of them. there were 4 games last weekend

public favored

atlanta - lost o/u - won
indi - lost o/u - lost
balty - won o/u - won
philly - won o/u - lost

 

[Capt. Slap]

Couldnt agree more, cost me the eagles game this weekend.

Same. Thing. Here.


Obviously knew Philly was hot, but after the Ravens cleaned house I figured I HAD to go with the Vikings...

Think they outplayed the Eagles, we were just stuck with Tavarius at QB

 

[aplous]

I would wager there's 90% chance the spread does not come into effect in the outcome.

LSU/Ohio St.....blowout
Fla/Ohio St.....blowout
Texas/USC.....7 pt dog winner SU
USC/OU.....blowout
LSU/OU....7 pt dog SU winner


Last big game I can remember the spread being involved was the Pats/Eagles Super Bowl....Pats win by 4 as 7 pt chalk.......every teaser covered that day, dog/fav and O/U.
Dont get caught up in laying -4 or -5 or -5.5 if u want Gators........

 

[wizardofodd]

you are correct, the spread doesnt matter in any sport, only about 15% of games does the spread even come into effect. college does have alot higher lines, but usually they are covered.

 

[Vikingsguy]

This "public" percentage thing gets blown out of proportion. We're all "right" 55-60% of the time anyway and try to grind out a profit over the course of a season. Linesmakers aren't idiots and usually set good lines. Where %'s help me is when the perceived "public" pushes a line up 2-3 points and I get VALUE on the other team, whether I'm really on the "right" side or not.

Staying on topic, one would think Florida is the "right" side here....

 

[BetTheRent$]

I have been screwed very badly a few times this year by going with John Q. But I can't imagine this game going any way but with the Gators. I have them at -5.5.