Close Your Evening With A Profitable Slugfest Between Royals and Angels
The Angels host Kansas City in the last game on today’s betting card. Los Angeles is heavy chalk with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, but don’t rush to trust him with your money.
Kansas City Royals (21-40) at Los Angeles Angels (34-28)
MLB Pick: 1H „Over“
The key for Kansas City's Ian Kennedy, (1-6, 6.08 ERA) as a fly ball pitcher, is to keep the ball in the ballpark. But he’s unreliable to do that. In every season since 2014, including this one, he’s allowed over 1.5 homers per nine innings and his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) has been over 4.50. Kennedy has not developed since teams figured him out. He’s always been a fastball pitcher. He throws his four-seamer with 60% frequency and relies on it in all situations—even with two strikes. But Kennedy doesn’t have enough quality in his secondary stuff to keep hitters off-balance. That’s why, despite his obvious struggles, Kennedy has thrown his four-seamer with over 49% frequency in all his starts and over 60% in nearly half. Kennedy is trying to throw his fastball more precisely, but can’t. In 2018, as opposed to 2014, he’s throwing more balls than strikes with it. Because teams can sit on his fastball, it’s not inducing as many whiffs. He’s already allowed 10 homers against his fastball whereas, in all of 2014, he allowed 12.
Kennedy’s reliance on the fastball leaves him helpless against teams who are strong against it. His five worst performances, in which he yielded an FIP over 5.00, came against teams who rank in the top eight against the fastball thrown by righties. The Angels rank ninth in the category. They crushed Kennedy's fastball on April 12, achieving a lot of hits and a home run. But the homer was a solo shot and they stranded every baserunner, hence the high FIP. Kennedy’s FIP jumps from 3.65 with the bases empty to 6.49 with runners on, so don’t expect him to get lucky again. In the past week, the Angels rank 10th in slugging with runners in scoring position. Look out for Ian Kinsler, who is 8-for-23 with four doubles and two homers against Kennedy. Kinsler is slugging .821 in his past seven days.
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LA’s Shohei Ohtani (4-1, 3.18 ERA) isn’t afraid to challenge hitters with his fastball over the heart of the plate. He throws his 97 mph fastball most frequently and relies on it most in all situations, except with two strikes, in which scenario he can command some nasty breaking pitches that challenge hitters with their movement and velocity differential. But Royals batters won’t see much of his breaking stuff because, thanks to their aggression, they rank towards the bottom in rate of two-strike counts seen.
Ohtani’s worst games came against teams who slam his fastball and have a high contact rate. Seattle, Houston and Boston rank in the top 10 in percentage of contact with pitches thrown in the zone, slugged over .600 against his fastball and forced from Ohtani a 4.75 FIP or worse. As a fastball-throwing strikeout pitcher, he matches up poorly with KC. The Royals have the third-highest zone contact percentage. So Ohtani won’t blow many fastballs by them. It doesn’t take much contact to send a high-velocity fastball the other way for a base hit, so the Royals will be able to use Ohtani’s velocity against him. The Royals rank ninth in slugging the fastball from righties in the past month and consistently rank in the upper half against the high-velocity (95-100 mph) fastball from righties. Watch for Jon Jay and Whit Merrifield, who are slugging over .500 in their past seven days.
For those looking to play a side, there’s no value in the super chalky Angels. The Royals are 3-0 after a shutout and yield positive units on the road and against right-handed starters, while the Angels at home are costing bettors.
The Angels host Kansas City in the last game on today’s betting card. Los Angeles is heavy chalk with Shohei Ohtani on the mound, but don’t rush to trust him with your money.
Kansas City Royals (21-40) at Los Angeles Angels (34-28)
MLB Pick: 1H „Over“
The key for Kansas City's Ian Kennedy, (1-6, 6.08 ERA) as a fly ball pitcher, is to keep the ball in the ballpark. But he’s unreliable to do that. In every season since 2014, including this one, he’s allowed over 1.5 homers per nine innings and his FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) has been over 4.50. Kennedy has not developed since teams figured him out. He’s always been a fastball pitcher. He throws his four-seamer with 60% frequency and relies on it in all situations—even with two strikes. But Kennedy doesn’t have enough quality in his secondary stuff to keep hitters off-balance. That’s why, despite his obvious struggles, Kennedy has thrown his four-seamer with over 49% frequency in all his starts and over 60% in nearly half. Kennedy is trying to throw his fastball more precisely, but can’t. In 2018, as opposed to 2014, he’s throwing more balls than strikes with it. Because teams can sit on his fastball, it’s not inducing as many whiffs. He’s already allowed 10 homers against his fastball whereas, in all of 2014, he allowed 12.
Kennedy’s reliance on the fastball leaves him helpless against teams who are strong against it. His five worst performances, in which he yielded an FIP over 5.00, came against teams who rank in the top eight against the fastball thrown by righties. The Angels rank ninth in the category. They crushed Kennedy's fastball on April 12, achieving a lot of hits and a home run. But the homer was a solo shot and they stranded every baserunner, hence the high FIP. Kennedy’s FIP jumps from 3.65 with the bases empty to 6.49 with runners on, so don’t expect him to get lucky again. In the past week, the Angels rank 10th in slugging with runners in scoring position. Look out for Ian Kinsler, who is 8-for-23 with four doubles and two homers against Kennedy. Kinsler is slugging .821 in his past seven days.
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LA’s Shohei Ohtani (4-1, 3.18 ERA) isn’t afraid to challenge hitters with his fastball over the heart of the plate. He throws his 97 mph fastball most frequently and relies on it most in all situations, except with two strikes, in which scenario he can command some nasty breaking pitches that challenge hitters with their movement and velocity differential. But Royals batters won’t see much of his breaking stuff because, thanks to their aggression, they rank towards the bottom in rate of two-strike counts seen.
Ohtani’s worst games came against teams who slam his fastball and have a high contact rate. Seattle, Houston and Boston rank in the top 10 in percentage of contact with pitches thrown in the zone, slugged over .600 against his fastball and forced from Ohtani a 4.75 FIP or worse. As a fastball-throwing strikeout pitcher, he matches up poorly with KC. The Royals have the third-highest zone contact percentage. So Ohtani won’t blow many fastballs by them. It doesn’t take much contact to send a high-velocity fastball the other way for a base hit, so the Royals will be able to use Ohtani’s velocity against him. The Royals rank ninth in slugging the fastball from righties in the past month and consistently rank in the upper half against the high-velocity (95-100 mph) fastball from righties. Watch for Jon Jay and Whit Merrifield, who are slugging over .500 in their past seven days.
For those looking to play a side, there’s no value in the super chalky Angels. The Royals are 3-0 after a shutout and yield positive units on the road and against right-handed starters, while the Angels at home are costing bettors.
