Angels vs. Mariners: MLB Betting Picks
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 9:40 p.m. ET in T-Mobile Park in Safeco Field
Dylan Bundy’s Fastball
While Dylan Bundy is on a new team this year — he played for Baltimore last year — he is still very much the same pitcher.
Bundy relies most of all on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches combine for 64 percent of his repertoire.
The slider gives Bundy his best chance of winning. Based on opposing BA, it is his best pitch.
But the thing with Bundy’s slider is that he doesn’t want to rely on it too often.
Instead, pitch usage percentages show that he focuses on throwing his slider when he is ahead of the count or when there are two strikes.
Before he obtains either scenario, he relies primarily on his fastball.
So, if a team hits his fastball wall, it will succeed against Bundy because he throws his fastball frequently and because he will throw his slider less frequently.
We can support this point not only with logic but also with real-game results.
When Bundy yielded a 4.50 ERA in a game this season, versus Seattle, his fastball yielded a .400 opposing BA.
Last year, the same connection between poor ERA and poor opposing BA versus the fastball often manifests itself.
Mariner Batters vs Bundy
One reason I like Seattle is that its lineup matches well against Bundy because Mariner batters are hitting the fastball well.
Currently, they rank ninth in BA against the fastball thrown by righties as they are hitting .519 against this pitch from righties in 104 at-bats.
It is true that, collectively, active Mariner batters own a poor BA in their career against Bundy.
But of the 56 at-bats that they have mustered against Bundy, 20 (over a third) come from one guy, Mallex Smith.
So, Smith’s disproportionate share of his team’s at-bats against Bundy is deflating its collective BA against him.
Do look out for Daniel Vogelbach, who is a promising 2-for-5 (.400) when facing Bundy. Shed Long is 1-for-3 (.333) with a double.
Both players are lefties. Seattle has plenty of these, which is worth noting because Bundy’s career BA is .49 lower against lefties than against righties. Lefties hit .280 against Bundy.
Marco Gonzales
Like Bundy, Gonzales will start against tonight’s opponent for a second consecutive time.
Last year, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) when facing the same team twice in a row shows that this scenario does not affect him negatively.
He is a better candidate than Bundy to succeed against the same team because he owns more pitch variety.
Whereas Bundy’s two primary pitches already compose a substantial portion of his repertoire, Gonzales throws five different pitches with over 10 percent frequency.
Gonzales also masks the delivery of his pitches well, in particular his fastball and sinker and his change-up and curveball.
He keeps both the vertical and horizontal release points of both pairs of pitches close together so that the batter requires more time to discern which pitch approaches him.
As a result, in masking his delivery, he delays the batter’s reaction to his pitch.
Gonzales’ superior pitch variety also showcases itself when we break down pitch usage.
While Bundy throws his fastball over 50 percent of the time to start off the count against both left-handed and right-handed batters, Gonzales throws three different pitches over 20 percent of the time as a first pitch to righties.
He also throws two — almost four — different pitches with the same frequency as a first pitch to lefties.
Likewise, Gonzales does a much better job mixing up his pitch selection with two strikes as he throws each of his pitches over 10 percent of the time in this scenario to both lefties and righties.
Gonzales vs Angels Batters
As a southpaw, Gonzales matches up excellently against Angels batters.
Currently, they are the fifth-worst team in hitting against lefties as their BA is .189 in 132 at-bats against them.
Once again, active team BA against a pitcher is misleading.
In this case, L.A.’s numbers are inflated by one good performance they enjoyed against Gonzales last year as he was in the midst of a five-game losing streak.
Look for Anthony Rendon, who’s 1-for-5 (.200) in his career against Gonzales, to struggle. Albert Pujols is 4-for-31 (.129).
The Verdict
I want to invest in the Mariners. I trust Gonzales more than Bundy for the former’s pitching variety and match-up advantages.
When sportsbooks release their MLB odds, I will take the Mariners first-half ML because I want to focus on the match-up between starters.
But you can already grab the Mariners full-game ML.
Best Bet: Mariners ML at +147 Odds With 5Dimes
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, August 5, 2020 at 9:40 p.m. ET in T-Mobile Park in Safeco Field
Dylan Bundy’s Fastball
While Dylan Bundy is on a new team this year — he played for Baltimore last year — he is still very much the same pitcher.
Bundy relies most of all on a fastball-slider combo. Both pitches combine for 64 percent of his repertoire.
The slider gives Bundy his best chance of winning. Based on opposing BA, it is his best pitch.
But the thing with Bundy’s slider is that he doesn’t want to rely on it too often.
Instead, pitch usage percentages show that he focuses on throwing his slider when he is ahead of the count or when there are two strikes.
Before he obtains either scenario, he relies primarily on his fastball.
So, if a team hits his fastball wall, it will succeed against Bundy because he throws his fastball frequently and because he will throw his slider less frequently.
We can support this point not only with logic but also with real-game results.
When Bundy yielded a 4.50 ERA in a game this season, versus Seattle, his fastball yielded a .400 opposing BA.
Last year, the same connection between poor ERA and poor opposing BA versus the fastball often manifests itself.
Mariner Batters vs Bundy
One reason I like Seattle is that its lineup matches well against Bundy because Mariner batters are hitting the fastball well.
Currently, they rank ninth in BA against the fastball thrown by righties as they are hitting .519 against this pitch from righties in 104 at-bats.
It is true that, collectively, active Mariner batters own a poor BA in their career against Bundy.
But of the 56 at-bats that they have mustered against Bundy, 20 (over a third) come from one guy, Mallex Smith.
So, Smith’s disproportionate share of his team’s at-bats against Bundy is deflating its collective BA against him.
Do look out for Daniel Vogelbach, who is a promising 2-for-5 (.400) when facing Bundy. Shed Long is 1-for-3 (.333) with a double.
Both players are lefties. Seattle has plenty of these, which is worth noting because Bundy’s career BA is .49 lower against lefties than against righties. Lefties hit .280 against Bundy.
Marco Gonzales
Like Bundy, Gonzales will start against tonight’s opponent for a second consecutive time.
Last year, his FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) when facing the same team twice in a row shows that this scenario does not affect him negatively.
He is a better candidate than Bundy to succeed against the same team because he owns more pitch variety.
Whereas Bundy’s two primary pitches already compose a substantial portion of his repertoire, Gonzales throws five different pitches with over 10 percent frequency.
Gonzales also masks the delivery of his pitches well, in particular his fastball and sinker and his change-up and curveball.
He keeps both the vertical and horizontal release points of both pairs of pitches close together so that the batter requires more time to discern which pitch approaches him.
As a result, in masking his delivery, he delays the batter’s reaction to his pitch.
Gonzales’ superior pitch variety also showcases itself when we break down pitch usage.
While Bundy throws his fastball over 50 percent of the time to start off the count against both left-handed and right-handed batters, Gonzales throws three different pitches over 20 percent of the time as a first pitch to righties.
He also throws two — almost four — different pitches with the same frequency as a first pitch to lefties.
Likewise, Gonzales does a much better job mixing up his pitch selection with two strikes as he throws each of his pitches over 10 percent of the time in this scenario to both lefties and righties.
Gonzales vs Angels Batters
As a southpaw, Gonzales matches up excellently against Angels batters.
Currently, they are the fifth-worst team in hitting against lefties as their BA is .189 in 132 at-bats against them.
Once again, active team BA against a pitcher is misleading.
In this case, L.A.’s numbers are inflated by one good performance they enjoyed against Gonzales last year as he was in the midst of a five-game losing streak.
Look for Anthony Rendon, who’s 1-for-5 (.200) in his career against Gonzales, to struggle. Albert Pujols is 4-for-31 (.129).
The Verdict
I want to invest in the Mariners. I trust Gonzales more than Bundy for the former’s pitching variety and match-up advantages.
When sportsbooks release their MLB odds, I will take the Mariners first-half ML because I want to focus on the match-up between starters.
But you can already grab the Mariners full-game ML.
Best Bet: Mariners ML at +147 Odds With 5Dimes
