Angels vs. Indians Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Best Bet
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Sunday, August 22, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pennsylvania
Why Is Jose Suarez Starting?
Angel pitcher Jose Suarez is starting again tonight after serving as a reliever earlier in the season.
He had normally been a starter before this season. But he failed to be effective.
Last year, for example, Suarez allowed 10 earned runs in 2.1 innings as a starter. He collected the loss in those starts.
This season, he has been undeniably solid in the bullpen, yielding a 1.98 ERA in 27.1 innings as a reliever.
You might question whether the Angels should "fix what isn't broken" by placing Suarez in the rotation.
Other things were broken, though. Specifically, starter Dylan Bundy had been struggling horribly after a fine last season.
On July 5, then, Suarez replaced Bundy in the rotation and has continued to be a starter.
Suarez The Starter
In contrast to his ERA as a reliever this season, Suarez is suffering a 5.45 ERA as a starter. This discrepancy between Suarez's performance as a reliever and his failures as a starter is decisive for tonight's bet.
A Cleveland backer may point out that the Indians rank a meager 18th in slugging against Suarez's three favorite pitches, the fastball, change-up, and curveball, from lefties.
However, as a starter, Suarez has also suffered against Athletic and Yankee squads who likewise match up poorly against him. He even suffered against a Colorado team that is routinely dreadful outside of Denver.
Suarez vs. Indian Batters
Given Suarez's consistent struggles as a starter and the way that these struggles reliably undermine any match-up advantages that Suarez may have on paper, I do not care about Cleveland's numbers against Suarez's pitches.
Instead, it is more important to me that Cleveland's strong hitting form contrasts with Suarez's poor pitching form.
Cleveland has scored 21 runs in its past three games. It has been able to rely on top Indian hitters like Jose Ramirez, who is currently 4-for-8 with a double and two home runs in this series.
Cal Quantrill's Last Start
Indian starter Cal Quantrill finally broke his streak of solid starts.
In his last effort, Quantrill allowed three runs in five innings against Minnesota.
One might be worried about Quantrill, but there is no reason here to succumb to recency bias.
For reasons that are irrelevant to tonight's game, Quantrill's last effort is a product of his discomfort in Minnesota's venue.
His bad performances in Minnesota are nothing new -- the Twins hit him even much harder at home on June 25.
So Quantrill's last start does not signal some kind of new turn in his pitching form, but instead reflects a kind of continuity that is unrelated to tonight's game.
Before this last start in Minnesota, Quantrill had allowed five runs in six starts while facing multiple teams that rank highly in runs per game.
Quantrill vs. Angel Batters
Except for a few isolated instances, mostly coming against struggling pitchers with high ERAs and a situation where they got to face Jose Berrios a second time in a short amount of time, the Angels have been hitting poorly in August.
In August, the Angels rank 21st in slugging against Quantrill's two favorite pitches, the sinker and slider from righties.
Except when he's in Minnesota's venue, he does very well against teams like the White Sox and Tigers who are also struggling against these pitches from righties.
Quantrill distinguishes himself from Suarez in this tendency to succeed against the lineups that he looks good against on paper.
Full-Game Bet
Even pretending that Suarez were a superstar starter, L.A. seems particularly ill-equipped tonight.
Significantly, its starter only lasted 3.2 innings in last night's game, causing four different Angel relievers to see action. So its bullpen is easily more worn down than Cleveland's, which only needed two relievers last night, both of whom did not throw more than 11 pitches.
But, of course, Suarez is far from a superstar. If the Angels, to spare their bullpen, let him see the Indian lineup for a third time, then Suarez will enter yet another sphere of trouble.
When Suarez sees a lineup for a third time in a game, his ERA this season is 22.50.
The MLB odds might seem fair given each team's record. But the Angels really are being overvalued with Suarez as starter. Quantrill's strength since mid-July, L.A.'s poor hitting form, Cleveland's strong hitting form, and the Indians' bullpen advantage also explain why you should take the Indians tonight.
Best Bet: Indians ML at -130 with Heritage
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Sunday, August 22, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field in Williamsport, Pennsylvania
Why Is Jose Suarez Starting?
Angel pitcher Jose Suarez is starting again tonight after serving as a reliever earlier in the season.
He had normally been a starter before this season. But he failed to be effective.
Last year, for example, Suarez allowed 10 earned runs in 2.1 innings as a starter. He collected the loss in those starts.
This season, he has been undeniably solid in the bullpen, yielding a 1.98 ERA in 27.1 innings as a reliever.
You might question whether the Angels should "fix what isn't broken" by placing Suarez in the rotation.
Other things were broken, though. Specifically, starter Dylan Bundy had been struggling horribly after a fine last season.
On July 5, then, Suarez replaced Bundy in the rotation and has continued to be a starter.
Suarez The Starter
In contrast to his ERA as a reliever this season, Suarez is suffering a 5.45 ERA as a starter. This discrepancy between Suarez's performance as a reliever and his failures as a starter is decisive for tonight's bet.
A Cleveland backer may point out that the Indians rank a meager 18th in slugging against Suarez's three favorite pitches, the fastball, change-up, and curveball, from lefties.
However, as a starter, Suarez has also suffered against Athletic and Yankee squads who likewise match up poorly against him. He even suffered against a Colorado team that is routinely dreadful outside of Denver.
Suarez vs. Indian Batters
Given Suarez's consistent struggles as a starter and the way that these struggles reliably undermine any match-up advantages that Suarez may have on paper, I do not care about Cleveland's numbers against Suarez's pitches.
Instead, it is more important to me that Cleveland's strong hitting form contrasts with Suarez's poor pitching form.
Cleveland has scored 21 runs in its past three games. It has been able to rely on top Indian hitters like Jose Ramirez, who is currently 4-for-8 with a double and two home runs in this series.
Cal Quantrill's Last Start
Indian starter Cal Quantrill finally broke his streak of solid starts.
In his last effort, Quantrill allowed three runs in five innings against Minnesota.
One might be worried about Quantrill, but there is no reason here to succumb to recency bias.
For reasons that are irrelevant to tonight's game, Quantrill's last effort is a product of his discomfort in Minnesota's venue.
His bad performances in Minnesota are nothing new -- the Twins hit him even much harder at home on June 25.
So Quantrill's last start does not signal some kind of new turn in his pitching form, but instead reflects a kind of continuity that is unrelated to tonight's game.
Before this last start in Minnesota, Quantrill had allowed five runs in six starts while facing multiple teams that rank highly in runs per game.
Quantrill vs. Angel Batters
Except for a few isolated instances, mostly coming against struggling pitchers with high ERAs and a situation where they got to face Jose Berrios a second time in a short amount of time, the Angels have been hitting poorly in August.
In August, the Angels rank 21st in slugging against Quantrill's two favorite pitches, the sinker and slider from righties.
Except when he's in Minnesota's venue, he does very well against teams like the White Sox and Tigers who are also struggling against these pitches from righties.
Quantrill distinguishes himself from Suarez in this tendency to succeed against the lineups that he looks good against on paper.
Full-Game Bet
Even pretending that Suarez were a superstar starter, L.A. seems particularly ill-equipped tonight.
Significantly, its starter only lasted 3.2 innings in last night's game, causing four different Angel relievers to see action. So its bullpen is easily more worn down than Cleveland's, which only needed two relievers last night, both of whom did not throw more than 11 pitches.
But, of course, Suarez is far from a superstar. If the Angels, to spare their bullpen, let him see the Indian lineup for a third time, then Suarez will enter yet another sphere of trouble.
When Suarez sees a lineup for a third time in a game, his ERA this season is 22.50.
The MLB odds might seem fair given each team's record. But the Angels really are being overvalued with Suarez as starter. Quantrill's strength since mid-July, L.A.'s poor hitting form, Cleveland's strong hitting form, and the Indians' bullpen advantage also explain why you should take the Indians tonight.
Best Bet: Indians ML at -130 with Heritage
