Angels vs. Dodgers: MLB Best Bets
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, September 27, 2020 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Regular Season Finale
I normally like to do first-half plays.
But this kind of wager is inappropriate for today’s game because both teams will feature their bullpens.
For the Angels, a motivating factor may be the official elimination of their squad from postseason contention.
Now they can rest their starters by shutting down their innings.
To be clear, the Angels are absolutely still trying. Yesterday, for example, they almost came back from a three-run deficit in the ninth inning. But they just fell short of achieving an upset as they lost 7-6.
As for the Dodgers, they will advance to the playoffs.
But they really aren’t taking any precautions — nor do they need to, given the amount of rest that they’ll receive. Their first playoff game takes place on Wednesday.
Mookie Betts was hit by a pitch and may take today off. He’ll see how he feels.
Hopefully for us, whoever takes his place will hit better than Betts has been. Betts’ absence from Sunday’s finale would be by no means catastrophic given his 4-for-23 run from the plate. All four hits were singles.
Bullpen Usage
Both teams played last night. The Angels employed six different pitchers.
One is noteworthy: Noe Ramirez.
Ramirez has a 3.00 ERA this season for the Angels. He threw 27 pitches in two innings last night. So I imagine that the Angels will have to do without his presence today.
Conversely, the Dodgers had a starter go six innings last night. So they had to use up fewer arms, which means that they lost fewer reserves to potentially employ today.
Joe Kelly is the only likely absence for the Dodgers because he threw 22 points.
Dustin May
It’s not clear when Dodger Dustin May (2-1, 2.77 ERA) will enter the game.
But it has been confirmed that May will pitch a bulk-inning outing.
Most of his outings last five or six innings. Six is the maximum that he’s lasted this inning. He almost always lasts at least four innings.
So in handicapping today’s game, my focus is on May and on both bullpens as a whole.
May’s Luck
May’s surface stats — in particular his ERA — are certainly misleading.
They conceal his current 4.79 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 4.10 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average ratio of fly balls to home runs).
He’s benefitting from leaving 88 percent of baserunners on base. This strand rate is statistically unsustainable.
Moreover, his opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) is vastly lower this season although he’s inducing less soft contact.
So in actuality, May isn’t performing as well as it may seem.
May’s Stuff
Primarily, May relies on a sinker-cutter combo. He throws the former half the time and the latter with 25 percent frequency.
His velocity is really strong. His sinker averages 98 mph and his cutter is averaging nearly 94 mph.
While his cutter shows moderate vertical movement, his sinker moves very strongly with its lateral movement.
Typically, he’ll work inside on same-handed batters.
May vs Angel Batters
No matter how you look at it, the Angels match up well with May given his stuff.
They rank third in slugging .539 against his two favorite pitches combined from righties.
Because May relies so heavily on these two pitches, he won’t be able to escape the Angels’ match-up advantage.
Likewise, the Angels rank fifth in slugging .493 against high-velocity (average 93-97 mph) pitches from righties.
This latter ranking is important because velocity is the asset which May relies upon most to succeed. But he can’t use this asset to his advantage today.
Look out for David Fletcher. He has eight hits in his past three games combined.
Angels Bullpen
The Angels are trying hard to have enough arms in their bullpen. This is especially an issue given their higher bullpen usage lately.
For help, they recovered Patrick Sandoval, although his ERA and FIP are both well over five.
Overall, the Angel bullpen is rather poor. It ranks 10th with a 4.64 ERA.
The Verdict
The Dodgers will probably win with the better overall and fresher bullpen. But the odds already reflect that they are the batter team.
May will pitch the bulk of innings. So choosing a play comes down to the fact that the Angels promise to hit the overrated May hard today.
Because the Angel bullpen is easily vulnerable and has been all season, I prefer an „over“ play.
Best Bet: Over 9 (-119) with Bookmaker
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, September 27, 2020 at 3:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles
Regular Season Finale
I normally like to do first-half plays.
But this kind of wager is inappropriate for today’s game because both teams will feature their bullpens.
For the Angels, a motivating factor may be the official elimination of their squad from postseason contention.
Now they can rest their starters by shutting down their innings.
To be clear, the Angels are absolutely still trying. Yesterday, for example, they almost came back from a three-run deficit in the ninth inning. But they just fell short of achieving an upset as they lost 7-6.
As for the Dodgers, they will advance to the playoffs.
But they really aren’t taking any precautions — nor do they need to, given the amount of rest that they’ll receive. Their first playoff game takes place on Wednesday.
Mookie Betts was hit by a pitch and may take today off. He’ll see how he feels.
Hopefully for us, whoever takes his place will hit better than Betts has been. Betts’ absence from Sunday’s finale would be by no means catastrophic given his 4-for-23 run from the plate. All four hits were singles.
Bullpen Usage
Both teams played last night. The Angels employed six different pitchers.
One is noteworthy: Noe Ramirez.
Ramirez has a 3.00 ERA this season for the Angels. He threw 27 pitches in two innings last night. So I imagine that the Angels will have to do without his presence today.
Conversely, the Dodgers had a starter go six innings last night. So they had to use up fewer arms, which means that they lost fewer reserves to potentially employ today.
Joe Kelly is the only likely absence for the Dodgers because he threw 22 points.
Dustin May
It’s not clear when Dodger Dustin May (2-1, 2.77 ERA) will enter the game.
But it has been confirmed that May will pitch a bulk-inning outing.
Most of his outings last five or six innings. Six is the maximum that he’s lasted this inning. He almost always lasts at least four innings.
So in handicapping today’s game, my focus is on May and on both bullpens as a whole.
May’s Luck
May’s surface stats — in particular his ERA — are certainly misleading.
They conceal his current 4.79 FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) and 4.10 xFIP (like FIP, but adjusts for league average ratio of fly balls to home runs).
He’s benefitting from leaving 88 percent of baserunners on base. This strand rate is statistically unsustainable.
Moreover, his opposing BABIP (batting average of balls in play) is vastly lower this season although he’s inducing less soft contact.
So in actuality, May isn’t performing as well as it may seem.
May’s Stuff
Primarily, May relies on a sinker-cutter combo. He throws the former half the time and the latter with 25 percent frequency.
His velocity is really strong. His sinker averages 98 mph and his cutter is averaging nearly 94 mph.
While his cutter shows moderate vertical movement, his sinker moves very strongly with its lateral movement.
Typically, he’ll work inside on same-handed batters.
May vs Angel Batters
No matter how you look at it, the Angels match up well with May given his stuff.
They rank third in slugging .539 against his two favorite pitches combined from righties.
Because May relies so heavily on these two pitches, he won’t be able to escape the Angels’ match-up advantage.
Likewise, the Angels rank fifth in slugging .493 against high-velocity (average 93-97 mph) pitches from righties.
This latter ranking is important because velocity is the asset which May relies upon most to succeed. But he can’t use this asset to his advantage today.
Look out for David Fletcher. He has eight hits in his past three games combined.
Angels Bullpen
The Angels are trying hard to have enough arms in their bullpen. This is especially an issue given their higher bullpen usage lately.
For help, they recovered Patrick Sandoval, although his ERA and FIP are both well over five.
Overall, the Angel bullpen is rather poor. It ranks 10th with a 4.64 ERA.
The Verdict
The Dodgers will probably win with the better overall and fresher bullpen. But the odds already reflect that they are the batter team.
May will pitch the bulk of innings. So choosing a play comes down to the fact that the Angels promise to hit the overrated May hard today.
Because the Angel bullpen is easily vulnerable and has been all season, I prefer an „over“ play.
Best Bet: Over 9 (-119) with Bookmaker
